Yep saying that UKMO vs GFS difference at 120 and 144hrs is of any consolidation then we can back ourselves up also with yesterday's 12z ECMWF for same time.
At t144 and T168 the GFS is out on it own bringing in low Pressure WNW to SE from the North Atlantic PV Low region.
It is fascinating seeing it cold down over the UK albeit not a great difference, and seeing UKMO and ECMWF have battle of weakened narrowed UK band of low Pressure and large NE Europe Blocking high link to Siberian High is quite nice prospect for diverting the North Atlantic Low pressure.
Signs point to a NNW to SSE driven series of PV North Atlantic Icelandic Linked Low pressure and GFS for last Week of January is showing this as West to East moving North Atlantic Low's change track and head from NW from NE Canada or Iceland dive South and SE giving chance of Cold plunges and prospect of getting night frosts and heavy wintry snow showers or bands of rain turning to sleet and Snow spells with few days West winds then turn North and NW.
High pressure in West Mid North Atlantic and Arctic high over to our northeast in Norwegian Sea Svalbard could as GFS suggest bring this SE tracking Jet, and Set up Blocking high over Greenland and divert NE USA PV Low to move SE through Eastern N Atlantic and SE Canada high extend to Newfoundland and link up to West mid North Atlantic high pressure,
And Having PV Low Pressure deflected away from NE Europe Blocking High is also necessary and this looks good possibility looking at the UKMO and ECMWF at 144hrs, the GFS brings mild and Wet weather while the other two slow down things over the UK with West N mid Atlantic high quite strong and the Scandy plus Siberian High plus high to our North and NE in the Arctic ready to dragged cold air to Greenland and NE Europe- things looking interesting.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.