Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Friday January 17th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show Low pressure continuing to dominate the weather over the UK for the next week with the general trend for Low pressure areas to slip SE across the UK while filling up early in the period with changeable conditions for all areas. Later next week a new Low slips SE down over the UK too with further rain and showers for all but with an increase of the Westerly wind to accompany the rain.
GFS then shows the Azores High ridging towards Southern Britain for a time late next week damping down the rain for a time in the South while some continues across the North. Later in the run the Low pressure areas to the North dig deeper down over Britain again with gales and heavy rain giving way to cold and showery conditions with snow showers in places late in the run as winds swing Northerly, this due to the Low pressure area responsible moving SE over the UK and Europe to be followed by a brief ridge of High pressure by Day 15.
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of generally unsettled weather with rain or showers at times. For much of the time temperatures will remain close to average though a slow dip below average may be apparent for some Southern areas late in the run. It may also prove rather windy at times to next week.
UKMO shows a quiet day next Thursday as pressure has become slack over the UK as Low pressure clears the SE and High pressure tries to ridge NE over Britain. The likely result will be a rather cold day with a lot of cloud and a little rain in the East, possibly falling as sleet and snow over the hills of the NE.
GEM tonight shows a very unsettled period from the end of next week as deep Low pressure areas either pass East to the North of the UK or down across the Nation giving rise to strong winds and rain at times throughout. Some wintry showers would be possible in the colder NW flow later, especially in the North.
NAVGEM shows a more sedate period late next week and weekend but still largely unsettled with some rain at times as troughs pass East over all areas over the period.
ECM also continues the unsettled mode throughout the latter stages of it's run with increasingly deep depressions coming back from the NW across Britain with gale or severe gale force winds from the West likely with spells of rain followed by wintry showers the most likely weather pattern by 10 days time with temperatures near to or somewhat below average.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight signify that Low pressure close to Northern Scotland is the bias of opinion between the ensemble members of ECM tonight keeping unsettled and breezy weather going for all areas at this juncture in average temperatures.
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The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow maintaining it's current position under moderate strength over the next 4-5 days. Later next week the flow strengthens markedly which may promote some strong depressions once again to the North of Britain leaving the UK in some strong surface wind strengths too.
In Summary the weather remains quite unsettled over the next few weeks. In the first week the weather will see occasional rainfall some of which will be heavy and slow moving as fronts and sliding depressions stall over the UK before losing their identity in situ. There could be some drier spells in places when frost patches and fog become possible as well as some snow on Northern hills at times. Through Week 2 the Jet Stream is strongly supported to strengthen markedly spinning up some more powerful depressions close to the Northern Isles whipping up severe Westerly gales at times and rain bands followed by showers, some wintry the favoured sequence of events. Overall temperatures will stay close to average or somewhat below at times through the whole period.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset