On the other hand that very cold air does provide a chance of snow even in a zonal flow.

 

It's looking rather like January 1984.  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif

 

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Just looking at the GFS 2m temps for early next week to gauge wintry potential, and noticed a rather dramatic temperature change in North-East Wales from chilly but not especially cold 5c at 6pm to a bone-chilling -7c at midnight... a degree drop each and every 30 minutes!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15617.html

I could just about buy such a drop over deep snowcover, but starting from a high of 5c, this doesn't seem credible.  Is it a gfs model gremlin or is a genuinely plausible temperature drop given conditions?  I'm tending to think the former....

Andrew

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Aye, but GFS temp charts are as reliable as a chocolate raft in a lava pool

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There is a little bit of encouragement tonight for the coldies. Firstly we are bringing in quite a cold and mobile WNW'ly flow in the first half of next week from a slider (incidentally this is now well modelled across most output) with the possibility of wintry weather especially in the north and possibly higher ground further south as well for a time.

There is also remarkably good agreement as far in FI at +192 whereby the low sinks into Europe ushering in a colder E or NE'ly in its wake. The depth of cold appears to be lacking with the source of air too far south from the ECM..GFS on the other hand is fairly interesting at that stage with a number of their ensembles at this stage bringing in a easterly with more of a Siberian origin and uppers in the -8c to -10c 850Hpa range...certainly conducive for convective snow showers in favoured places.

The chance is small as other output are not modelling it. It is however worthy of a mention and some consideration should be given to the way the weather may play out in around 8 or 9 days time.

Interesting times. 

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There is a lot to interest the model watcher for sure.  For coldies, Its been hard-going these past few weeks stuck between a

"block and a hard place" (Siberian-Azores) with us effectively the trough for the jet and the wet to be funnelled down.

There is a chance as you say, for something tastier and colder, but Im not buying it.  The jet and the Atlantic seem too powerful at the moment.  My guess is that we will have to look for cold zonality with diurnal and evaporative cooling needed for any laying snow south of the midlands.  For northern hills, the wait for a sustained spell of cold weather with snow may be over - for a week perhaps?

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I live in North East Wales, something similar did happen. I remember it well but sadly have no dates or accurate temperatures.

The conditions were much like we have now, on the day it happened it was dull and overcast with a bit of drizzle. It started raining around 3pm, the sky turned black in the distance and within a few minutes the rain had turned to snow we then had thunder snow! The snow didn't stick as the ground was too wet.

This lasted for about an hour, the skys then cleared which led to a huge drop in temperature, within about 30 minutes the water on my car had frozen solid and as I found out from my mrs the roads and pavements were also frozen, this had caused a lot of accidents and cars getting stuck. She had to leave her car at work and get a lift back with someone in a 4x4. It was in the local paper the next day, reporting on how the council had been caught out by the sudden drop in temperature and due to roads been blocked they couldn't get gritters around quickly enough.

If I had to take a guess at the temperatures I would say they were not far off what you have suggested.

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Unable to post my report tonight but for those who wish to read it you can see it on my website at 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

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The ECM mean has 2 day cold spell around the 29th when we get an easterly. Quite a lot of support for this now. I think many areas could expect some snow around this date.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1682.html 


At day 10 the mean has some impressive cold zonality as well. Very jan 84

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html 

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http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim 

Trending colder....

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I suppose it would be just desserts if at the end of all this we ended up with the last remaining segment of the PV sat over us with bitter continental air entraining to turn things increasingly wintry...

*slaps face*

Need to wake up! ECM does hint at the above from its day 10 chart, with the theme of a second bout of Arctic HP remaining intact tonight, but its way off in Fantasy Island such as we enjoy calling it.

 

Smelling the coffee now... next week will probably turn rather miserable in the south, with a dank chill and lots of rain about. The chance of some snow as a payoff is rather low at this stage.

ALIWBMS (At Least It Will Be More Seasonal) 

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...and then warmer again.  Looks as if 29-31 January are the best shot at some  for many; a glance at the GEFS also confirms this.  Will come down to timings of lows, intensity of precipitation and the amount of colder air in the mix.  Slim pickings indeed in this very mild winter...

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Looking nothing like cold enough 4 snow south of Scotland for next 2 weeks

A brave statement given the current model output IMO but, as ever, time will tell!

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Well a 2 day cold spell is better than nothing it could be quite potent if we get lucky (JMA ).

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Chilly and wet still looking like the most likely outcome for the next 7-10 days, with nothing desperately cold but chilly enough for some snow about. A great set of runs for the scottish ski industry which seems to be enjoying a cracking season so far

Interesting that the ECM develops a stronger HP over Scandi than we currently have and then just shunts it backwards at the end of the run. Given the current HP is more resilient than was modelled a while ago I doubt the resurgent version will wander off quite as quickly either

Think I commented on this the other night but the 10 day stats aren't exactly the sort of odds I'd bet my life on, with a downturn recently suggesting the pattern isn't one the models get right at any sort of distance.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

Given it involves Artic HPs, strong jet streaks and a big cold block over Scandi, along with disrupting LPs near to the UK it's not really surprising that t240 is a wee bit inaccurate at the moment

Just to highlight the uncertainty recently the 6 day stats are lower than I can remember seeing too:-

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

Given the strong jet and how this has affected the weather for the winter so far you'd still have to make 'unsettled and not properly cold (outside of the far North I guess)' the favourite outcome but given the uncertainty a surprise cold spell is definitely not out of the question imo

 

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eh?

I would call very mild 10,11 or 12c , it aint been that here

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really????

How do you work that one out

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012218/gfsnh-0-96.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012218/gfsnh-1-96.png?18

A cold NWly comes across the UK

 

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The problem is that it has been consistently mild, not extreme. CET figures of about 2'C above normal tell there own story.

Fww, Winchester broke the 10'C barrier 11 times in December and 9 times so far this month so on your assessment, 20 very mild days

The lowest maximium was 4.4'C on xmas day

All other days achieved 5'C or more 

 

Assuming  the spelling was intentional were you thinking of Arctic roll? Or warm sticky pudding? 

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Sorry Dave I should have put an IMBY in there

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The CET, my weather stats, the lack of frost, the lack of falling and laying snow all indicate it has been a very mild winter thus far,  Im disappointed you take issue with facts. 

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lack of frosts, lack of falling and laying snow dont indicate a mild winter do they..............temps alone do . we have had many many days of temps between 5-9c..............I dont call that very mild above average at times but also average

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Can we keep it civil, please? No need for this sort of tone. 

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Daytime temps haven't been that mild, Marcus, but the lack of frosts has been notable, which has kept the CET up. I live in a fairly frost-prone location but think I have had less than a dozen frosts all winter. Not sure of the exact number. 

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