http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Great chart from METO.PV split, Arcitc N Scandi HP.Double slider.

Scotland may also share the headlines with the charts signalling heavy snowfall for many days.  The ski industry will be very happy.  The GFS 372 chart...Scandi high says  ''kiss my ass'' to the low.....a perfect heart.  

Best of this mornings output IMO

Then Gooner you will also be encouraged by GEFS.True it consigns next weeks cold spell to a couple of days but hints of a longer term movement.The ENs easterly proportions are shown below.

144h 70%

168h 75%

192h 40%

240h 15%

360h 45%

We can only hope that the METO evolution post 144h is better than this.However Gfs has some snow programmed for Friday on the op.

Will it flatten? This was on my mind around this time last year, as a flatter trough can bring in the continental air across a wider region of the UK more quickly and effectively.

ECM takes a bit too long and is a brief affair, with the Atlantic then arriving with too much force for a battleground scenario to last more than a very short time.

GFS has the least favourable trough early next week, yet manages more of a battleground setup at the end of higher-res (192 hours), before things become more mobile again in FI.

One could sum up the model output in a broad sense as "Noah's flood, with the chance of some snow".

For example, GFS gives my home location 31.3mm by the end of the weeekend, with similar amounts then following Monday-Friday. On the last of those days, there's a 25% chance of snow... 

Just looked at some of the temps from GFS , certainly a chilly run

Morning all. Interesting chart that, but I feel it should be treated in isolation. The outlook from what I can see is increasingly cool and wet, though the Scottish ski industry should be pleased. Away from elevated Northern areas it will feel raw at times with some wind and rain.  

quite a cold set of ECM ens for De Bilt

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

Our rain on Sunday will turn to snow in Holland.

R.I.P. to the trusty NAE model, which I used for short range forecasting as it was finally put to sleep this morning. Now having to use the EURO4 output for my own forecasting needs. I ike the high res-look about it but it doesn't cover the Atlantic (only the UK and Europe). I then flit to GFS for temperature, wind direction and medium range forecasting, etc, etc, yadda, yadda and so forth. I don't find myself looking at ECM too much for medium range forecasting as it changes it's mind more often than a set of traffic lights.

Anyway, back on topic. To be honest, once we get past the spell of rough weather over the next three or four days, all I can see are cold rain and marginal snowfalls as we go into next week - it's where temperatures at the 850 hpa level are very borderline for snow, so it'll all be down to evaporative cooling, elevation, living in t'north, etc. Something for Quantum to get his teeth into.
 
Can't complain about the lack of variety, that's for sure.

Not really required - there's plenty of snow already:

http://www.winterhighland.info/pix/displaypic.php?id=27622,947#start

Anyway, the output this morning is quite encouraging for snow in the north, although it's amazing such a big block can't hold firm. Just goes to show how strong the atlantic is this winter.

Looks much better

Cheers Roger

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/23/basis00/ukuk/weas/14013100_2300.gif

JFF

First time iive seen a chart like this since last year!

Indeed, very unsettled and wet though cold air is never far away at times so I suppose there's always the possibility of something interesting happening at short notice.

Otherwise its .

The NAE is updateing again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1324.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.png

A cold raw day next Tuesday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15617.png

Even colder on Wednesday

Cold, wet and miserable yuk!

The GFS 06h op consigns any easterly flow to single day

Ens are a bit more promising(% are easterly flow)

120 h (tue) 50%

144h (wed) 75%

168h (thu) 65%

192h (Fri) 35%

240h (sun 25%

360h  (fri) 35%

Roughly 5 ens persist through to 360h

The main problem withe sliders and filling is that if they track too far north more likely to be nothing but cold rain-cool zonal type.

Some cool miserable wet tripe there Marcus- definitely a couple of days to possibly stay indoors. I think some flooding problems may arise next week.