Good evening folks. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 23rd 2014 and lifted from my website on http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models agree on the progress of events over the UK for the next 5-6 days before some differences between the models begins to crop up by the middle of next week. A complex trough structure bringing milder air will move erratically East over the UK tonight and tomorrow with rainfall for many giving rise to further flooding possibilities in the already sodden areas of the SW. By Saturday a window of drier air will of arrived with a showery NW flow and it will feel colder than tomorrow will. On Sunday a major depression is shown to approach NW Britain and this trundles SE towards SE England by midweek. After a wet period for all on Sunday strong Westerly winds and heavy showers, wintry on hills will give way to quite cloudy conditions towards midweek with further outbreaks of rain and as colder air is drawn into the UK by midweek on the Northern periphery of the Low some of the rain will turn to sleet and snow in places, mostly across the North and East.
GFS then shows the remains of the cold flow across the South give way to a return to westerly winds and changeable weather at the end of the week and weekend with further rain and showers crossing the UK from a very active Atlantic with very little overall change out to the end of the run.
The GFS Ensembles show a continuing unsettled period with Low pressure well in control. The air will turn colder for a time next week with the chance of some snow over the North and East but the likelihood of milder air returning soon afterwards remains quite high as the Atlantic depressions maintain control to the North.
UKMO tonight shows a slow moving filling Low pressure close to SE England with a cloudy and raw day for many with rain or sleet in places and some sleet and snow over the higher ground of the north and East for a time.
GEM shows the remains of any cold easterly flow over the South along with any remaining rain or sleet moving away South to be replaced by Westerly winds and further Low pressure areas crossing the UK keeping the wet and windy theme going with temperatures likely to return to near or somewhat below average.
NAVGEM also removes the remnants of the Low pressure area from the SE later next week with milder Atlantic Westerly winds taking control over all areas again with rain and showers moving back in from the West by next weekend.
ECM tonight shows Low pressure to the SE filling quickly shortly after midweek with the resultant cold Easterly flow dissolving away along with any rain and hill snow. Then the weather returns to wet and windy conditions as further Low pressure and fronts ride in on the back of a strong Atlantic Jet stream later next week and weekend.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the bias being towards the UK lying in the path of Low pressure stretching between Southern Greenland and South Iceland to the UK and on down into Italy. The trough has sharpened tonight with lower pressure indicating more trough disruption over the UK and Low pressure areas in their own merit diving SE over the UK. The pattern has shifted a couple of hundred miles West in the last 24 hours or so and this could be sufficient to continue some wintry interest for the NE of the UK still in 10 days while the rest see cold rain and showers on a chilly NW'ly flow as the most common weather type likely.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream is undergoing a strengthening over the next few days with a very strong flow persisting from the weekend and throughout next week and possibly beyond maintaining it's trajectory of crossing the Atlantic and into the UK before turning South then East over Southern Europe.
In Summary tonight things remain very volatile and very interesting from a synoptic point of view. We have the classic battle of East vs West with the battleground just too far East due to a stronger than usual Jet Stream adding extra oomph and push against the block meaning we don't tap into any real exciting wintry weather over the British Isles with regard to widespread snowfall. However, being positioned as we are geographically puts us in the firing line for frequent decelerating troughs moving into the UK on the back of a powerful Jet Stream and delivering spells of copious rainfall mixed with colder and more showery spells when some snowfall could occur on higher ground. The longer term prospects do not look good for drier weather anytime soon and concern is continuing to be very high for worsening flooding issues for some over the coming period.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset