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Jiries
23 January 2014 12:15:11

Cold, wet and miserable yuk!

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 



Yes not nice to see after seeing snow in Toronto. Massive contrast with cold rain while over there continue the beauty of further snow and deep cold. Surely uk should get something out of this at some point?
Karl Guille
23 January 2014 12:15:41
No birthday cheer in here for me in the short-term but still plenty of jam tomorrow to fill myself up on! 😉
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Retron
23 January 2014 12:40:25

A big upgrade in the 6z GEFS - 50% snow risk down here, highest of the winter so far. The mean T2Ms have fallen by over a degree since yesterday and are now comfortably below 5C for several days in a row. A thumbs-up from me!

ECM-15 is also the coldest it's been this winter. Again, several days in a row with mean maxima below 5C. Another thumbs-up.

As a coldie, I'd hope to see this trend (from 0z and 6z) continued through this evening's output.



Leysdown, north Kent
ARTzeman
23 January 2014 13:02:11

I  like the FAX  84-96-12 Hours. Nice tight lines...





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hadedger
23 January 2014 13:19:28


Cold, wet and miserable yuk!


Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Yes not nice to see after seeing snow in Toronto. Massive contrast with cold rain while over there continue the beauty of further snow and deep cold. Surely uk should get something out of this at some point?

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Lets hope so!

VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
23 January 2014 13:19:51
Looking at the rain radar, a definate shift in the direction the showers are coming from, now spinning in from the north west... first time its not been from the west/south west for what seems like eons...
Gooner
23 January 2014 13:28:47


A big upgrade in the 6z GEFS - 50% snow risk down here, highest of the winter so far. The mean T2Ms have fallen by over a degree since yesterday and are now comfortably below 5C for several days in a row. A thumbs-up from me!

ECM-15 is also the coldest it's been this winter. Again, several days in a row with mean maxima below 5C. Another thumbs-up.

As a coldie, I'd hope to see this trend (from 0z and 6z) continued through this evening's output.




Originally Posted by: Retron 


Agree

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
23 January 2014 13:41:05

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


That is a chilly set and showing some agreement in a longer cool/cold spell

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
23 January 2014 14:50:30

Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


Rather Cool With Wintry Showers Next Week?


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Thinking snow risk mainly in the north later next week, but not perhaps not exclusively so.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
johnm1976
23 January 2014 14:57:49
Looking higher up in the model output, is this a split stratospheric vortex on GFS?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012218&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=300 

I think we might get some jam tomorrow. Followed by a miserable spring 😞
Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2014 16:26:22
Very poor 12z GFS. Nowhere near cold enough for snow away from Scottish hills.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2014 16:30:54
The ukmo is a bit better than GFS but not much basically just colder rain. Doh!
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Russwirral
23 January 2014 16:31:01

Very poor 12z GFS. Nowhere near cold enough for snow away from Scottish hills.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Im not so sure, I think we could end up wit some localised snowfalls where its marginal.  It could be 1 mile down the road rain, 1 mile the other direction sun, the other direction heavy snowfall.


 


Maybe Evap-cooling might make another appearance next week.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2014 16:32:18

Very poor 12z GFS. Nowhere near cold enough for snow away from Scottish hills.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Im not so sure, I think we could end up wit some localised snowfalls where its marginal.  It could be 1 mile down the road rain, 1 mile the other direction sun, the other direction heavy snowfall.


 


Maybe Evap-cooling might make another appearance next week.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Maybe on the ukmo at 144h but the GFS is to mild I reckon. Poor 12z so far

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Weathermac
23 January 2014 16:42:03


Very poor 12z GFS. Nowhere near cold enough for snow away from Scottish hills.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Im not so sure, I think we could end up wit some localised snowfalls where its marginal.  It could be 1 mile down the road rain, 1 mile the other direction sun, the other direction heavy snowfall.


 


Maybe Evap-cooling might make another appearance next week.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Maybe on the ukmo at 144h but the GFS is to mild I reckon. Poor 12z so far

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

  I think North of the M4 may see the potential for Borderline Snow but it will be touch and go and probably more sleety than snow.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
23 January 2014 16:53:44
The GFS 12z Run:

Colder than 00z run Main Focus is more Trofs are indicated in Sunday to Early Thursday a.m PV Low Pressure that is forecast for the UK, the Monday offers chance of Wintry showers with lower Max Temperatures in 12z than 00z run, Otherwise it is much the Same but more Dominant, appears colder even on Tuesday and Wednesday only a Notch - especially on Monday and Wednesday and Early on Thursday as it leaves SE England.

The High in Arctic and Scandy appears well Organised.

And on 31st Jan to 3rd Feb. 2014- Cold Low Pressure is predicted but more rain some heavy- hill snow and maybe a single chance of it during then at least once for Lower Levels- during the Friday or the Weekend after next week.

This moves from SE Central SW Greenland via NW and North Atlantic arrives after 30 Jan, some mild slots also there in the Milder Low's part of it.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
The Beast from the East
23 January 2014 17:13:09

Fergusson says METO not expecting any snow in southern britain followed by a return to zonal later in the week much in line with the Models.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
colin46
23 January 2014 17:23:54


Fergusson says METO not expecting any snow in southern britain followed by a return to zonal later in the week much in line with the Models.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Gooner
23 January 2014 17:28:34

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7817.png


So close to a dream set up


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
23 January 2014 17:32:24

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png


will feel cold in the strong NWly flow . Plenty of wintry showers coming through


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2163.png

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
23 January 2014 17:32:51

Very poor 12z GFS. Nowhere near cold enough for snow away from Scottish hills.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


What an odd comment!


Some snow over higher ground of England and Wales on Saturday:


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/54-779UK.GIF?23-12


Leading edge snow on Sunday


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/69-779UK.GIF?23-12


Snow in the north and SW of England on Monday:


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/90-779UK.GIF?23-12


Trailing edge snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/138-779UK.GIF?23-12


Going for snow over "Scottish hills" only is odd given the output this evening. And yes, I know it won't happen exactly like that, if at all, but it's undeniable that there is more widespread snow in the charts than just for Scotland.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
23 January 2014 17:44:00

Very poor 12z GFS. Nowhere near cold enough for snow away from Scottish hills.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


What an odd comment!


Some snow over higher ground of England and Wales on Saturday:


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/54-779UK.GIF?23-12


Leading edge snow on Sunday


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/69-779UK.GIF?23-12


Snow in the north and SW of England on Monday:


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/90-779UK.GIF?23-12


Trailing edge snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/138-779UK.GIF?23-12


Going for snow over "Scottish hills" only is odd given the output this evening. And yes, I know it won't happen exactly like that, if at all, but it's undeniable that there is more widespread snow in the charts than just for Scotland.


 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Not to mention the fact that the GFS op run was one of the mildest options for part of next week...

http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

Did Ian Ferguson mention northern Britain at all in his comments? 😊
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
roger63
23 January 2014 17:44:20


Very poor 12z GFS. Nowhere near cold enough for snow away from Scottish hills.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


What an odd comment!


Some snow over higher ground of England and Wales on Saturday:


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/54-779UK.GIF?23-12


Leading edge snow on Sunday


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/69-779UK.GIF?23-12


Snow in the north and SW of England on Monday:


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/90-779UK.GIF?23-12


Trailing edge snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014012312/138-779UK.GIF?23-12


Going for snow over "Scottish hills" only is odd given the output this evening. And yes, I know it won't happen exactly like that, if at all, but it's undeniable that there is more widespread snow in the charts than just for Scotland.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


GEFS at 06h slightly more optimistic than op  in terms of length of easterly spell


% Ens esterly flow


120h (tue) 65%


144h (wed)80%


168h(thu) 50% 


192h(fri ) 20%.


Will need to be much closer to Tuesday before having a real handle on snow possibilties but for lowland araes cold rain most likely

Retron
23 January 2014 17:48:00


Did Ian Ferguson mention northern Britain at all in his comments? Blushing

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


http://forum.netweather.tv/user/15852-fergieweather/


Don't think so (just a non-specific NW/NE etc earlier - not sure whether that's the UK as a whole or England!)


He did post this though, which is interesting - we so rarely get to see the MetO forecasters' discussions on here!



I'm sure the Dep. Chief won't object to me citing him directly on his briefing issued just before midday today (the emphasis italics are his, not mine), so to avoid paraphrashing or confusing the UKMO underpinning behind the 6-15d forecast. This should speak for itself re your queries and why a return to zonal is the form horse further ahead:


"...after a quasi-meridional period in approx the day 6 to 8 day f/c period in which a filling area of low pressure moves SE’wards across UK, there is a return thereafter to the generally zonal pattern already seen for most of this winter. There are differences between models.... wrt the detail of the return to a more zonal pattern, but very little disagreement that this broadscale evolution will occur.....


Examination of Shannon Entropy f/c output from both EC and MOGREPS both have low entropy / high confidence early in the 6-10 day period and later (in the trend period), with a spike of high entropy / low confidence around days 8 or 9, relating to


the detail of the return to zonal flow."


fergieweather wrote:

Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
23 January 2014 17:50:02


Did Ian Ferguson mention northern Britain at all in his comments? Blushing

Originally Posted by: Retron 


http://forum.netweather.tv/user/15852-fergieweather/


Don't think so (just a non-specific NW/NE etc earlier - not sure whether that's the UK as a whole or England!)


He did post this though, which is interesting - we so rarely get to see the MetO forecasters' discussions on here!



I'm sure the Dep. Chief won't object to me citing him directly on his briefing issued just before midday today (the emphasis italics are his, not mine), so to avoid paraphrashing or confusing the UKMO underpinning behind the 6-15d forecast. This should speak for itself re your queries and why a return to zonal is the form horse further ahead:


"...after a quasi-meridional period in approx the day 6 to 8 day f/c period in which a filling area of low pressure moves SE’wards across UK, there is a return thereafter to the generally zonal pattern already seen for most of this winter. There are differences between models.... wrt the detail of the return to a more zonal pattern, but very little disagreement that this broadscale evolution will occur.....


Examination of Shannon Entropy f/c output from both EC and MOGREPS both have low entropy / high confidence early in the 6-10 day period and later (in the trend period), with a spike of high entropy / low confidence around days 8 or 9, relating to


the detail of the return to zonal flow."


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

fergieweather wrote:



Thanks for that Darren. 👍
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
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