Darren, I think essan is just commenting on your hope casting of late. The last cold oppurtunity where you were saying that from the 12th, your words were 'one thing for certain it will not be mild' and cold was the most likely outcome. When it wasn't. So I wouldn't be so harsh on others if they have a different opinion.

Whether idle, great summary. The ukmo looks great even at 120, gem seems slightly confused in the same period whilst the GFS and ECM seem quite keen to move the Atlantic back fast. I get the feeling the outcome could be a crunch moment for our snow chances down south. If it fails then we are left with just a few weeks of decent snow opportunity. Exciting times for sure.

Morning all. What a complete mess again this morning, this is going to be so hard to pin down. I would suggest FI starts at say 72 hours with some diverging output again on offer. It won't be overly mild for sure, but then again no deep cold is on offer either. This interaction of wet with cooler temperatures will mean a surprise snowfall for a few, disappointment for some. Away from northern elevated areas this could be a close but no cigar set up, flooding again becoming a problem with the well saturated ground hardly able to cope with anything further thrown at it. If snow were to fall, then some areas say Pennines northwards could be in for some impressive totals. All to play for, but I am thinking cool, wet and miserable for the majority ATM.
By the way, tomorrow's Countryfile forecast will be interesting for sure- I don't envy the presenter one little bit under such difficult circumstances.

Nice to see a level headed and IMHO unbiased view this morning J.

You are right, FI is at t72, and the reality is that most of the output does not favour the Met O and NAVGEM.  Perhaps ECM has it nailed this time?  All pure speculation.  Youve gotta love it

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That comment related to the period when NO ensemble output was showing mild conditions for the week just gone - they were showing cold to average conditions. It was only a few days after that period when the models switched to showing a milder outcome.

My comments at the time were NOT hopecasting. Indeed, the hopecasting that was going on was from the mildies, the "told you so" crowd - they were going for something which simply wasn't shown.

Throughout the past few weeks I've been at pains to stress the uncertainty and aside from the few days when mild weather was not being shown the outlook has been uncertain. I think there are some on here who see what they want to see and I'm not one of them. I tend to comment more when the outlook aligns with my preferred weather type, but I'll never say something is likely or certain unless the models are backing up that claim - and for several runs in a row for any comments of certainty.

I really shouldn't have to defend myself like this on here, but there you go. *shrug*

Right, now I've made my point clear (I hope!) here are this morning's 0z ECM ensembles for Reading:

http://oi44.tinypic.com/24nlhyp.jpg

They show a cold outlook is still favoured and that once again the operational was on the mild side from day 6 onwards. The only real change from yesterday's 12z is a greater spread on day 6 onwards, suggesting a greater uncertainty than yesterday.

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So the differences between ECM, GFS, UKMO et al is down to Del Shannon again?

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Cheers WI. You know this is a fascinating period of model watching- I just hope some of the more experienced posters like Retron, Gandalf, Gavin, Doc et al continue to contribute as this is the only way less experienced members like myself can learn.

Hendrix held sway yesterday with All Along the Model Watchtower.

Today the question is, will the UKMO Runaway under the weight of the mighty ECM this evening?

Entropy or no Entropy? 

That is the question.

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Or with the case of Del Shannon.... Keep Searchin'!

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Good morning everyone. Here is the report of the midnight outputs of the NWP for this morning Saturday January 25th 2014 and updated and raised twice daily from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show Low pressure moving across the Atlantic towards NW Beitain later today with attendant fronts crossing the Atlantic too and approaching Western Britain by midnight tonight. This follows a brief ridge of High pressure which keeps many Southern areas dry today with some showers in the North, heavy and wintry for a time. Tomorrow sees the fronts cross East over all areas with a spell of heavy rain then showers sweeping East with further flooding issues in places. Through Sunday night and Monday the weather will be very windy and showery as well as become colder with wintry showers over hills, even in the South with hail and thunder too in places. Through this time Low pressure will be slipping South over the UK to be across Southern Britain on Tuesday with rain and showers continuing with sleet or snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. Then by midweek the Low exits the South with a period of cold Easterly winds carrying wintry showers West over the UK with snow most likely over the hills and in the East.

GFS then has the second half of the week with the cold East flow dissolving away with Atlantic low pressure areas returning rather cold and changeable weather from the NW with further rain at times expected with snow over Northern hills. Later in the run Low pressure becomes even more pronounced up to the NW with bands of rain then showers sweeping East over the UK with strong winds too in places with temperatures returning to average values.

The GFS Ensembles show a spell of colder weather this week as winds swing to a NE or East quadrant briefly. This isn't shown to last long though as milder Atlantic air returns across all areas with rain and wind at times and temperatures returning to average.

UKMO today closes it's morning output with next Friday being very cold and breezy with Easterly winds carrying some wintry showers of sleet and snow across Eastern and Southern areas while Northern areas become dry and chilly with frosty nights but sunshine by day.

GEM today shows a cold and unsettled spell developing next week as Low pressure takes a much more Southerly aspect with Easterly winds the trend over the UK with rain, sleet and snow at times with some substantial falls possible in places almost anywhere but chiefly over the hills.

NAVGEM this morning also shows cold Easterly winds holding their own this morning for later this coming week with some snow and sleet showers or even longer spells of precipitation likely in the West and South at times towards next weekend.

ECM today is disappointing for those looking for cold and snowy weather as it quickly removes the Easterly feed soon after midweek in the place of a depression moving ESE into the North Sea with more rain followed by chilly and showery weather feeding down from the NW by next weekend. However, it does somewhat redress the cold balance later by suggesting cold and unstable air developing over the UK late in the run with the chance of rain, sleet and snow in the West as a front bumps up against the cold block still just about holding on to the East.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows a trend towards a UK rough the most likely in 9 and 10 days time on an axis which runs off Southern Greenland the UK to Italy. Whilst this trend is not bad for incursions from the cold continental air the pattern could do to be further west still to enable us to stand a better chance of tapping into something more meaningful.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream Forecast sees the strong flow crossing the Atlantic continuing to be diverted South across or to the West of Britain before turning East over southern Europe. This trend remains for a time with even the flow eventually taking a more direct route East to the South of the UK in the second half of the run.

In Summary today the weather remains very unstable and often wet as Low pressure continues to dominate proceedings over the next 4-6 days at least. Through this period it's position will change as it migrates South of the UK to bring a spell of cold East winds and possible snow in places later this week. How long will it last is hard to determine from today's output with the ECM and GFS throwing a spanner in the works as both shows progressive conditions late next week which cut off any Continental influence for a time as new Low pressure slips into the North Sea with NW winds carrying rain then wintry showers across the UK later. This pattern is also backed up quite strongly by the GFS Ensembles. However, other output is rather more compelling with UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM all looking much more sustained with regard to longevity in it's cold output. So we have a stand off between these giants of the model field and which one is right? I'm afraid more runs are needed before this one becomes any clearer so we must expect more changes good and bad in the operational outputs of all models over the coming days. My best advice will be to watch the ensembles as they may give a better idea of where we are going than any individual operational run from any model alone.

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Cheers Gibby! Excellent analysis again. Ensemble Watch it is then- I wonder if Bill Oddy is on board?

We'll the MetO model has been miles ahead of ECM and GFS this winter so my money would be on them, however, the MetO themselves are only going for a short tepid cold snap next week so it's a difficult one to call.

It would be typical that the normally easterly ramping ECM has got it right this time as a potential cold spell approaches.

Andy

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Seems to me the likliest scenario

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We can but hope! We really do need a drier spell, and soon.

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Spot on Andy.

I don't think anyone can say with any confidence which way this one will go. On the face of it, the fact that both ECM and GFS favour an Atlantic return seems pretty compelling. I do agree though that ECM has been pretty poor this Winter. The GFS 00z run also looks questionable to me. At 168 it has the Atlantic marching in bulldozing the block away East but lowest pressure in the Atlantic at that point is 995 mb. The chart at 180 illustrates this point and looks iffy:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0 

Coldies will be encouraged by the UKMO chart this morning backed up by GEM and NAVGEM. A very interesting period of model watching ahead.

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Over on the BBC Weather site Darren Betts has an interesting piece about the cold spell, however, he says that the deep cold over Scandy and Eastern Europe will not reach us and the Atlantic will return by next weekend. Temperatures during the cold spell ranging from 4c in the north and 6c in the south.

Maybe a little sleet and snow in the north east.

Oh we'll, he could be wrong.....

Andy

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The same forecaster that, among others, predicted a BBQ summer in 2009 IIRC.

We'll soon see who proves to be on the money here.

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The BBC forecast was from yesterday morning after the Friday am models. The way things are changing you could say it was already out of date. Looking forwards to 12z twists already!
Martin

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Bett is the mild ramper poster boy!

Anyway, GFS similar to 00z but not a patch on UKMO

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

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Awful GFS 6z. I'm thinking/hoping we end up with a half way house between the big two ECM and UKMO which would be very wintry but perhaps not the insane Easterly the UKMO shows this morning.

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it may be an awful run in high res but its the first operational run of the season that gives us a technical ssw and its at T300 which is a bit progressive unless gfs has been missing something up till now.
mght be worth flicking through the NH profile towards the end of the run to see if there appears to be a quick response in the trop


EDIT: evidently its not a technical ssw until the end of the run. Plenty of variance in the gfs week 2 strat forcasts at the moment but lots of split vortices abound.

Still looking very unsettled and often wet with any snow confined to hills in the north mainly followed by more Atlantic driven weather systems into fi.

 

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http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/01/25/basis06/ukuk/prty/14012700_2_2506.gif 

Perhaps it would be more realistic to say that the majority of wintry precipitation will be on higher ground in the north rather than "confined to". I would not rule out a few flakes elsewhere especially if factors such as evaporative cooling come into play.

As for "hills" the altitude needed for snow up here later today is apparently only 200m (based on BBC forecasts), so not exactly mountain level. Nothing remotely unusual about that but I just thought that I'd point it out.

Overall though as you suggest the outlook is an unsettled one and probably on the chilly side of average (for a week or so at anyway). Rain looks more probable than snow for the vast majority of people but there is a higher chance of at least some wintry precipitation compared with much of the winter so far (not that that would be difficult!).

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That precipitation chart looks highly unlikely as it has rain for much of lowland Scotland but snow over a large part of Central Southern England.

And all in a strong westerly flow, hmmm, I don't think so!

Andy

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The Op was pretty much a mild outlier in FI but in general the ensembles still offer plenty of easterly biased options if not frigid cold! Still much prefer the UKMO though!

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http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/01/25/basis06/ukuk/prty/14012700_2_2506.gif  Perhaps it would be more realistic to say that the majority of wintry precipitation will be on higher ground in the north rather than "confined to". I would not rule out a few flakes elsewhere especially if factors such as evaporative cooling come into play. As for "hills" the altitude needed for snow up here later today is apparently only 200m (based on BBC forecasts), so not exactly mountain level. Nothing remotely unusual about that but I just thought that I'd point it out. Overall though as you suggest the outlook is an unsettled one and probably on the chilly side of average (for a week or so at anyway). Rain looks more probable than snow for the vast majority of people but there is a higher chance of at least some wintry precipitation compared with much of the winter so far (not that that would be difficult!).