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Stormchaser
27 January 2014 00:17:46

I am immeasurably jealous of those who witnessed yesterday's thunderous squall line event 


 


Never mind... the next 48 hours looks to be full of convective fun around here and indeed for large parts of the UK. The EURO-4 model seems to model showers reasonably well, and it predicts 30-40mm locally across the SW, with 10-20mm generally:


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/01/26/basis18/ukuk/rsum/14012818_2618.gif


 


I've saved the charts from that run so that I can get some idea as to just how well it peforms with this.


The big theme is one of banding showers, which in recent times have been responsible for substantial totals across relatively narrow strips of land - such when areas around Charlwood (I think it was there...?) saw... what was it... 70mm at some point earlier this month? My memory is a bit vague there.


 


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/01/26/basis18/ukuk/prty/14012706_2618.gif


This model still goes for a brief spell of convective snow in the early hours around here... very locallised though and I'd be amazed if more than a dusting managed to survive until dawn.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Stormchaser
27 January 2014 11:15:53

It got a bit lively back home for a time around 4am, with some torrential rain lasting nearly 15 minutes... or was it? Not far north of there, Boscombe Down reported a snow shower. Could it have briefly snowed very heavily? Certainly possible with some evaporative cooling!


Suspisicions rise further upon seeing the official precipitation measurements of 1mm at Hurn and 2.4mm at Boscombe Down. Both locations were hit by the torrential rain spell according to radar, and at 16-32mm/hr, a 10-15 minute period delivers around 4-5mm. There was also numerous moderate to heavy rain showers following on up until around 7am.


Here in Reading, it was largely dry with just a brief shower at around 6am.


 


There have been some showers around this morning, but nothing noteworthy away from parts of the far SW. According to Euro4 and the Met Office charts, things should become more energetic this afternoon, with a dense pack of showers, many of them heavy or very heavy. They look to exhibit some training behaviour, leading to very high totals in some locations.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Stormchaser
28 January 2014 11:40:40

From a convective perspective (rolls off the tongue!) the last 60 hours have been rather dissapointing at home, with most showers decaying before reaching that far inland. It was more interesting in Reading yesterday afternoon, with some heavy rain around.


From a flood-hit regions perspective, it has been a relief! The River Avon is managing to fall now... albiet at a rate of 1cm every three or four days. It might even get within 14cm of it's typical range before Fridays rain - unless GFS is right about tomorrow, that is (persistent rain for much of the day givng 8-12mm).


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Sevendust
28 January 2014 11:41:36

With winds switching more southerly across the south-east today as the cut-off low sinks there looks to be some decent potential for heavy showers with hail and thunder once again. Some large cumulus have started arriving here recently

Sevendust
28 January 2014 12:12:11

Showers underway - Just had hail

Darren S
28 January 2014 12:54:56

I'm reading a relative's post on Facebook saying that she'd had snow today (in Poole). I queried it, said it was unlikely being as it was 10C nearby. She described it as such: "definitely wasn''t rain, was  gentle and floaty but wet when it hit the floor".


Someone else agreed with her, but then someone else said they had hailstones. I'm thinking that what she saw was hailstones which had melted, maybe? I also think some people are either (a) so desperate for snow they're seeing things, or (b) they've read too many Daily Express headlines, or (c) are fans of the Exacta Weather Facebook page. 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Stormchaser
28 January 2014 12:58:32

Just starting to get more interesting at last; firstly there's some quite organised activity moving into the SW that actually seems to be 50 or so miles SE of where Euro-4 predicted it would be (I'm still very impressed by that model, though!).


Secondly, there looks to be some shower development across the SE occuring INLAND i.e. as a result of diurnal heating... after all, surface temperatures are at 7-10*C, which is 2-4*C above the 950hPa temps and 8-11*C above the 850hPa temps.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Sevendust
28 January 2014 13:30:39


Just starting to get more interesting at last; firstly there's some quite organised activity moving into the SW that actually seems to be 50 or so miles SE of where Euro-4 predicted it would be (I'm still very impressed by that model, though!).


Secondly, there looks to be some shower development across the SE occuring INLAND i.e. as a result of diurnal heating... after all, surface temperatures are at 7-10*C, which is 2-4*C above the 950hPa temps and 8-11*C above the 850hPa temps.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


I noticed that to. Been pretty mild here at over 8'C so that may well be helping.


Returning pm air is notoriously unstable which is what we currently have.


As for the snow in Poole, that will likely be hail. Some hail can be or get very soft which may seem to make it drift down rather than arrive like a tracer bullet. Certain way too warm for snow at sea level 

The Beast from the East
28 January 2014 16:16:05

shower train getting going now.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
28 January 2014 16:40:56

local flooding likely if this carries on.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
28 January 2014 16:55:19

Heavy showery rain here.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
nsrobins
28 January 2014 17:39:52



Just starting to get more interesting at last; firstly there's some quite organised activity moving into the SW that actually seems to be 50 or so miles SE of where Euro-4 predicted it would be (I'm still very impressed by that model, though!).


Secondly, there looks to be some shower development across the SE occuring INLAND i.e. as a result of diurnal heating... after all, surface temperatures are at 7-10*C, which is 2-4*C above the 950hPa temps and 8-11*C above the 850hPa temps.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


I noticed that to. Been pretty mild here at over 8'C so that may well be helping.


Returning pm air is notoriously unstable which is what we currently have.


As for the snow in Poole, that will likely be hail. Some hail can be or get very soft which may seem to make it drift down rather than arrive like a tracer bullet. Certain way too warm for snow at sea level 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


It was almost certainly graupal or soft hail - quite likely with cold uppers and plenty of instability, and often mistaken for 'snow' by the uninitiated.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
schmee
29 January 2014 07:08:04
Lots of showers around yesterday not as potent as two weeks ago but nevertheless still enough to make huge puddles. Anvils seen in distance quite impressive.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
moabutah
29 January 2014 20:49:17
Regarding Saturday's storm 40 cars had their side windows smashed by a hail in the BA staff car park at the end of 090 runway near Hatton Cross tube.
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