If ithe exceptionally cold weather in the USA is firing up the jet then we need to undestansd what pattern is causing this.The QBO may not be relevant at all to our mild wet and windy winter January.

Where would you draw the line between a westerly and a north westerly though? Northwesterlies can frequently bring the -10C isotherm over N scotland. Would you literally say, anything with less of a north component than a WNWrly? Or would it be less about angle and more about the origin of the airmass, i.e canada or the US vs greenland or some arctic region? 

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I remember a long fetch West North westerly back in ....hmm i reckon 1996/97?

I remember seeing the charts and the isobars stretched way back to Greenland.  Unusual  - but it happend.  I remember seeing snow snowers when i was in school Moving in from the west more than ive seen before - you know when you can see a wall of white heading towards you, you can even hear it too.  It was mostly ice pellets and snowballs (not hail, this was light fluffy balls)  as we were near the coast.  I remember chester doing very well out of it.

 

This may not seem too weird, but even in the most severe northerly - us in merseyside will still get sleet/rain whilst everywhere else gets heavy snow showers.

 

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It wouldn't though, I remember JH saying last year " there is a warming high up ..blah blah blah and explained they had no idea where a block would said up" 

 

Not saying it would work like that this time but thought I would mention it

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It has to be though surely?

It must have an influence on the UK

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So, unsettled for a day or so then cooler and more settled for another day or so then back to wet and windy.

Not good in terms of flooding (never mind the lack of low altitude wintry conditions).

There's a small chance of snow for some lower northern and eastern parts later tomorrow and Thursday before rain (possibly preceded by transient snow in places) moves in on Friday).

Nothing exciting overall, but quite a lot of unpleasant conditions look possible in the midterm outlook.

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Hmm.

Well Seen the UKMO and ECMWF Run 12z.

The One Low, then Another, then Another is suggested at the moment, they stand up to give some heavy rain and Strong winds, Across much of the UK from Friday across to Sunday, then there's three of them in Western Central N and E NE Atlantic, track one by the other follow after- so Monday and Tuesday in Central SW West UK- most affected with the East N E and S E less affected to an extend but the Low's do bring temperatures Monday- Tuesday around or just below the Average max but nights will be Colder in the East and NE and SE parts as clear skies could drop them to near 2 or 3 deg. C, but the West And the SW parts will be affected more by Cloudy wet weather.

It could be Cold on Sunday likely- so will Saturday temps. Will drop below normal and showers will have rain, hail and hill sleet and heavy snow as well.

The Cold Zonality is at times replaced with a little swathes of briefly less cold air off the Central West N Atlantic with each Low that crosses UK.

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Slight improvement on the ECM, I detect some small amounts of amplification at 216 in the midatlantic, plus some energy is going south by then, we have WAA on the bering side, plus strong blocking in siberia. 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.1.27.2014.gif

Cold SSTs becoming ever more expansive.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicen_nowcast_anim30d.gif

NAVGEM still wanting to expand the sea ice down E canada. 

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Interesting SST anomalies - you can see how all the cold air spilling out of North America has been cooling the Atlantic at our latitude. If that coolness persists into the summer months, it might actually benefit us - a cooler north Atlantic should assist us in getting a drier, sunnier summer.

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I see what is meant by the comments, "getting milder in February".

 

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

 

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Let's hope for a spectacular volte face from the models!

Seems that only happens unfortunately, when we are getting excited about a forecast easterly which is whisked away from us at the last moment. The models are in the habit of whipping away the sweet jar before we can enjoy the contents, but never never remove the bowl of westerly gruel once served!

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Well ECM has a go at rebuilding the scandi high at t240 if you want to have another round of will be manage to get some cold air in or will the Atlantic mess it all up again

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/240_mslp500.png 

 

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You would have thought  so buy vitualay no correlation bteween QBO and CET.Some other pattern  is driving the deep USA cold and that in turn fores up the jet.So what anomalous pattern is driving the USA cold?

Yes with a double spinner thats what Glazer Point used to say see that here could easily undercut from there

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=3&archive=0

 

 

Winter is only half done dont give up just yet still plenty of time to change and hardly a short term mild spell for the north with good dew points up there and with a very close call for sleet and snow for much od England in the next 48 hours

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=0&map=3&archive=0

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=taup&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Hardly a Scandi high though - the centre of the HP is somewhere to the south of Moscow, on about the same latitude as Manchester! (The old WZ tricky map projection making things look further north than they are again...)

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There are two things that strike me in looking through the output.  First  is the potential for copious volumes of rainfall, especially over western and southern Britain.  Second, the prospect of a continuation (once we get to Friday) of this frost free and snow free season which is technically winter but has exhibited a wild and mild character (that I fear we shall pay for later in the year).

WI

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Hi everyone. Here is tonight's review of the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Tuesday January 28th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show an agreement on conditions between now and Sunday inclusive as our current Low pressure area over Wales slipping away South and dissolving over the next 36 hours. After further outbreaks of rain and showers with increasing amounts of snow over the hills through tonight and tomorrow will give a window of dry weather on Thursday as we lie in the void between pressure systems. By Friday winds will of freshened quickly from the South as an active frontal system rattles in from the SW with periods of heavy rain and strong winds marching Northeast on Friday and followed by a rather cold and showery weekend again with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible over the hills. This weather will be in association with a deep Low trundling in towards the West of Scotland on Saturday, drifting slowly North on Sunday.

GFS then shows next week and the rest of the run with Low pressure established to the NW of the UK with periods of rain interspersed by showers in temperatures close to or a little above average overall for all areas.

The GFS Ensembles show complete support for an Atlantic based two weeks of weather from this Friday with Low pressure in one shape or another close to the NW feeding mild SW winds and spells of rain at times throughout the period.

UKMO closes it's run tonight with yet another deep and deepening Low swing NE close to Western Ireland with another swathe of heavy rain sweeping North and East across the UK next Monday with temperatures close to average.

GEM looks much like UKMO next Monday with a deep Low just to the West of Ireland bringing rain and strong winds followed by showers in the early days of next week. The rest of the period taking us out to next Friday shows yet more Low pressure areas with strong winds and heavy rain following the course of their predecessors and keeping all of Britain largely wet and windy with brighter showery interludes in between. Due to the SW wind it will never feel that cold with temperatures largely near average.

NAVGEM is possibly the worst of all early next week with very deep Low pressure covering the Atlantic with the UK entirely in it's grip with periods of heavy rain and strong winds an all too regular feature.

ECM tonight also shows very changeable conditions alternating between milder wet days and brighter, slightly chillier and more showery days with a little sunshine here and there, all the result of Low pressure areas spinning NE to the West of the UK.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts tonight show a bias towards a high chance of Low pressure being very close to Western Ireland with the likelihood of a broad and unstable SSW flow over the UK with plenty of rain bearing troughs likely to be spreading rain North and East across the UK regularly in very average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow carrying forward it's relentless track East over the Atlantic over or just to the South of the UK.

In Summary tonight the output is relentless in churning out run after run of inclement weather in the way of heavy rain and strong winds seemingly relentlessly moving across the UK powered by successive depressions spinning NE close to West and NW Britain. With only very limited dry interludes between rain bands it is hard to see how any of the models verifying tonight would cause anything other than more headaches for those areas afflicted by floods of late. Temperatures as a result of SW winds are unlikely to be anything other than close to average with very little evidence in any output of drier or colder weather in sight tonight.

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Thanks Martin.your forecast as been on the money all winter for me. Bugger about all the rain mind.