Hi everyone. Here is tonight's review of the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Tuesday January 28th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show an agreement on conditions between now and Sunday inclusive as our current Low pressure area over Wales slipping away South and dissolving over the next 36 hours. After further outbreaks of rain and showers with increasing amounts of snow over the hills through tonight and tomorrow will give a window of dry weather on Thursday as we lie in the void between pressure systems. By Friday winds will of freshened quickly from the South as an active frontal system rattles in from the SW with periods of heavy rain and strong winds marching Northeast on Friday and followed by a rather cold and showery weekend again with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible over the hills. This weather will be in association with a deep Low trundling in towards the West of Scotland on Saturday, drifting slowly North on Sunday.
GFS then shows next week and the rest of the run with Low pressure established to the NW of the UK with periods of rain interspersed by showers in temperatures close to or a little above average overall for all areas.
The GFS Ensembles show complete support for an Atlantic based two weeks of weather from this Friday with Low pressure in one shape or another close to the NW feeding mild SW winds and spells of rain at times throughout the period.
UKMO closes it's run tonight with yet another deep and deepening Low swing NE close to Western Ireland with another swathe of heavy rain sweeping North and East across the UK next Monday with temperatures close to average.
GEM looks much like UKMO next Monday with a deep Low just to the West of Ireland bringing rain and strong winds followed by showers in the early days of next week. The rest of the period taking us out to next Friday shows yet more Low pressure areas with strong winds and heavy rain following the course of their predecessors and keeping all of Britain largely wet and windy with brighter showery interludes in between. Due to the SW wind it will never feel that cold with temperatures largely near average.
NAVGEM is possibly the worst of all early next week with very deep Low pressure covering the Atlantic with the UK entirely in it's grip with periods of heavy rain and strong winds an all too regular feature.
ECM tonight also shows very changeable conditions alternating between milder wet days and brighter, slightly chillier and more showery days with a little sunshine here and there, all the result of Low pressure areas spinning NE to the West of the UK.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts tonight show a bias towards a high chance of Low pressure being very close to Western Ireland with the likelihood of a broad and unstable SSW flow over the UK with plenty of rain bearing troughs likely to be spreading rain North and East across the UK regularly in very average temperatures.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow carrying forward it's relentless track East over the Atlantic over or just to the South of the UK.
In Summary tonight the output is relentless in churning out run after run of inclement weather in the way of heavy rain and strong winds seemingly relentlessly moving across the UK powered by successive depressions spinning NE close to West and NW Britain. With only very limited dry interludes between rain bands it is hard to see how any of the models verifying tonight would cause anything other than more headaches for those areas afflicted by floods of late. Temperatures as a result of SW winds are unlikely to be anything other than close to average with very little evidence in any output of drier or colder weather in sight tonight.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset