theweatheroutlook

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SEMerc
28 January 2014 21:31:28




http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012812/UN96-21.GIF?28-17


It may not be what we want, but a very interesting period of weather coming up. Amazing temp gradient across the north atlantic


 

Originally Posted by: roger63 


Indeed - Friends in the States are talking about a surge of cold air into the deep south on the back of the latest storm.


Only serves to fire up the jet


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


If ithe exceptionally cold weather in the USA is firing up the jet then we need to undestansd what pattern is causing this.The QBO may not be relevant at all to our mild wet and windy winter January.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


SW Zephyr (or whatever his name was) - when he posted in here - used to bang on about the central pressure in Berne.


I would suggest you keep an eye on the central pressure in Las Vegas or Reno instead. That's what's driving the Arctic cold which in turn is firing up the jet.

roger63
28 January 2014 21:31:38




Well ECM has a go at rebuilding the scandi high at t240 if you want to have another round of will be manage to get some cold air in or will the Atlantic mess it all up again


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/240_mslp500.png 


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Hardly a Scandi high though - the centre of the HP is somewhere to the south of Moscow, on about the same latitude as Manchester! (The old WZ tricky map projection making things look further north than they are again...)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Tis one of Brians charts linked to though


Other than that I'd agree with your comment although that's why I said it has a go as opposed to succeeds. I did nearly put something about even though it's too far south' but didn't in the end as it won't look like that come the day anyway


I'd say the HP is gradually pushing it's influence further North on the ECM however, and if the Atlantic allowed there'd be a good chance the T264 and T288 charts would show some undercutting and something akin to a more Northerly based HP setting up. Doesn't really help if it's cold or just dry you're after but a little bit less depressing than the GFS I guess


Edit: removed irritating spelling error


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Having looke at 240h ECM i would guesss thyat the most likely evolution is for the following Atlantic LP to move smartly NE pushing the  HP SE.


Thre is virtually no support  amongst GFS or GEM ensembles for block pushing west around 240h.A few ensembles from GEM have HP building over Greenland but not enough to conclude its anything but random variation in ENS.

JACKO4EVER
28 January 2014 21:35:13
Time for a break from model watching for a couple of days. I am really concerned about flooding- we are facing a third month of almost catastrophic rainfall and I have a nasty feeling the worst could be yet to come. The early mild and dry start to December is now but a distant memory- this is a very depressing and worrying time for many. Brooks and dykes are full to the brim IMBY, it wouldn't take much more to push them over the edge. I have never seen such an abysmal set of charts across the board as I have tonight.
Andy Woodcock
28 January 2014 21:41:28
Sod it, the MetO has me in a warning area for snow on Friday.

'I am as mad as hell and I am not going to take this anymore'!

'Network' 1976

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Bugglesgate
28 January 2014 21:48:06

Time for a break from model watching for a couple of days. I am really concerned about flooding- we are facing a third month of almost catastrophic rainfall and I have a nasty feeling the worst could be yet to come. The early mild and dry start to December is now but a distant memory- this is a very depressing and worrying time for many. Brooks and dykes are full to the brim IMBY, it wouldn't take much more to push them over the edge. I have never seen such an abysmal set of charts across the board as I have tonight.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Indeed.


Even in the reliable timeframe, we have 4 days of MO rain warnings over us. I'm fortunate enough to live in a high area, but getting around is going to become very difficult if the Upper Kennet and Enborne flood. I really feel for those prone to flooding - it's bloody depressing enough just to have to endure day after day of this dross without having your house flooded as well.

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
polarwind
28 January 2014 21:49:44


Time for a break from model watching for a couple of days. I am really concerned about flooding- we are facing a third month of almost catastrophic rainfall and I have a nasty feeling the worst could be yet to come. The early mild and dry start to December is now but a distant memory- this is a very depressing and worrying time for many. Brooks and dykes are full to the brim IMBY, it wouldn't take much more to push them over the edge. I have never seen such an abysmal set of charts across the board as I have tonight.

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Indeed.


Even in the reliable timeframe, we have 4 days of MO rain warnings over us. I'm fortunate enough to live in a high area, but getting around is going to become very difficult if the Upper Kennet and Enbourne flood. I really feel for those prone to flooding - it's bloody depressing enough just to have to endure day after day of this dross without having your house flooded as well.


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Yep, that just about sums it up.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Rob K
28 January 2014 21:50:57




Well ECM has a go at rebuilding the scandi high at t240 if you want to have another round of will be manage to get some cold air in or will the Atlantic mess it all up again


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/240_mslp500.png 


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Hardly a Scandi high though - the centre of the HP is somewhere to the south of Moscow, on about the same latitude as Manchester! (The old WZ tricky map projection making things look further north than they are again...)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Tis one of Brians charts linked to though


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


So it is   I just looked at my bookmarked ECM 240 chart!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
briggsy6
28 January 2014 21:51:46

On the positive side after such an abysmal winter the law of averages must suggest a scorchio 1976 style summer. Prepare for hosepipe bans and standpipes in the streets!

Location: Uxbridge
Andy Woodcock
28 January 2014 21:58:00

On the positive side after such an abysmal winter the law of averages must suggest a scorchio 1976 style summer. Prepare for hosepipe bans and standpipes in the streets!

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 




Hmmm, like 2012?

Andy
Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
28 January 2014 22:31:29







http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012812/UN96-21.GIF?28-17


It may not be what we want, but a very interesting period of weather coming up. Amazing temp gradient across the north atlantic


 

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit 


Indeed - Friends in the States are talking about a surge of cold air into the deep south on the back of the latest storm.


Only serves to fire up the jet


Originally Posted by: roger63 


If ithe exceptionally cold weather in the USA is firing up the jet then we need to undestansd what pattern is causing this.The QBO may not be relevant at all to our mild wet and windy winter January.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It has to be though surely?


It must have an influence on the UK


Originally Posted by: roger63 


You would have thought  so buy vitualay no correlation bteween QBO and CET.Some other pattern  is driving the deep USA cold and that in turn fores up the jet.So what anomalous pattern is driving the USA cold?


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 


That's what I'm interested to know too, what forcing pattern is creating the USA/Canada cold humdinger?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


A very perplexing question indeed. Some as yet undiscovered meterological three letter acronym.

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Snowjoke
28 January 2014 22:42:00

On the positive side after such an abysmal winter the law of averages must suggest a scorchio 1976 style summer. Prepare for hosepipe bans and standpipes in the streets!

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Hmmm, like 2012? Andy

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


I find myself being incredulous at the levels of optimism being displayed by some of the posters on this forum? This is a weather and climate forum yet people are clutching at straws thinking we will suddenly have a spell of winter like Dec 2010???


Look at the outlook for later this week. ONE DAY of easterly winds followed by a change in the wind direction and another Atlantic deluge!! I fear for those living in the south west. The level and frequency of rainfall we are getting now is just frankly ridiculous.


Constant model watching won't alter the fact, (that a few cold blips aside over the past few winters) our weather is going down the pan. It was never a great climate to start with but it is getting progressively worse!!


 


I share Andy's sense of "optimism"


 


 

SEMerc
28 January 2014 22:53:25


On the positive side after such an abysmal winter the law of averages must suggest a scorchio 1976 style summer. Prepare for hosepipe bans and standpipes in the streets!

Originally Posted by: Snowjoke 

Hmmm, like 2012? Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


I find myself being incredulous at the levels of optimism being displayed by some of the posters on this forum? This is a weather and climate forum yet people are clutching at straws thinking we will suddenly have a spell of winter like Dec 2010???


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


It saves on razorblades.

Karl Guille
28 January 2014 23:10:20
Still no joy, even in the long-term, on the 18z GFS for cold lovers. Looks like my trip to Ljubljana on Thursday and on to Maribor will be my only chance of seeing some snow this winter!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
28 January 2014 23:40:46

Still no joy, even in the long-term, on the 18z GFS for cold lovers. Looks like my trip to Ljubljana on Thursday and on to Maribor will be my only chance of seeing some snow this winter!

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Closest thing to winter I have got is looking in the freezer

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Weathermac
28 January 2014 23:50:16
Nothing at all in any model output tonight in the way of wintry weather away from hills in scotland maybe northern england. Worst winter for cold since 1988 here . With a few tweaks that euro high may even give us a sniff of spring but i think the rain and flooding is of great concern ....that cold air seeping into the north atlantic is just relentless as it has been for weeks now. I love cold snowy weather but id settle for some mild dry days now i think most of us are sick of this sopping wet winter yuck.
NickR
29 January 2014 00:16:47


On the positive side after such an abysmal winter the law of averages must suggest a scorchio 1976 style summer. Prepare for hosepipe bans and standpipes in the streets!

Originally Posted by: Snowjoke 

Hmmm, like 2012? Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


I find myself being incredulous at the levels of optimism being displayed by some of the posters on this forum? This is a weather and climate forum yet people are clutching at straws thinking we will suddenly have a spell of winter like Dec 2010???


Look at the outlook for later this week. ONE DAY of easterly winds followed by a change in the wind direction and another Atlantic deluge!! I fear for those living in the south west. The level and frequency of rainfall we are getting now is just frankly ridiculous.


Constant model watching won't alter the fact, (that a few cold blips aside over the past few winters) our weather is going down the pan. It was never a great climate to start with but it is getting progressively worse!!


 


I share Andy's sense of "optimism"


 


 


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


I've seen no one claiming that. The "straw clutching" is just an understandable reluctance to accept that what we want looks like it won't happen. If you think the straw clutching is bad on here, then I suggest you don't bother looking at "the other channel".

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Quantum
29 January 2014 00:33:03

When I have a bit of time tommorow, I'll post some GEFS average strat images (since the strat seems to be the only flaw). I've managed to get GrADS working with reasonable images, although if anyone can offer a website that does average GEFS strat images that would save me a bit of time. 


Anyway my bit of experimenting tonight shows that the GEFS mean 12z agrees with recent op runs wrg to a general split of the polar vortex and temperatures rising to about -20C at their peak. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Karl Guille
29 January 2014 06:19:28
Well the only thing of interest that I could find on this morning's output is the hint of high pressure trying to re-establish over Scandanavia at T144. This shows up best on GEM and UKMO. Be interesting to see if this gathers any support on subsequent runs.
St. Sampson
Guernsey
doctormog
29 January 2014 07:19:59
Incredibly tomorrow may see snow falling here for only the second time this winter (and no I don't live on a "Scottish hill"). Desperate times and all that but at least tomorrow may feel like winter in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm361.gif 

Unlike the wet and windy conditions before and after, it's more or less a case of "blink and you'll miss it".
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
29 January 2014 07:44:40

Well the only thing of interest that I could find on this morning's output is the hint of high pressure trying to re-establish over Scandanavia at T144. This shows up best on GEM and UKMO. Be interesting to see if this gathers any support on subsequent runs.

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


I fear it will be brief Karl, there is absolutely nothing on offer..................woeful

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Scandy 1050 MB
29 January 2014 07:53:19


Well the only thing of interest that I could find on this morning's output is the hint of high pressure trying to re-establish over Scandanavia at T144. This shows up best on GEM and UKMO. Be interesting to see if this gathers any support on subsequent runs.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I fear it will be brief Karl, there is absolutely nothing on offer..................woeful


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Pretty much sums up the output - eastern seaboard stays in the freezer while we get soaked, still at least the days are getting longer now. 


Out of interest has there been any winter that is a close match for this one in terms of very little anti cyclonic spells as it has been remarkable so far for the total lack of any high pressure dominated weeks? If there is a similar Winter it would be interesting to see how the rest of that year turned out, nothing ever the same of course but sometimes the general trend can be similar. Also take our minds off the dreadful output!

roger63
29 January 2014 08:04:10


Well the only thing of interest that I could find on this morning's output is the hint of high pressure trying to re-establish over Scandanavia at T144. This shows up best on GEM and UKMO. Be interesting to see if this gathers any support on subsequent runs.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I fear it will be brief Karl, there is absolutely nothing on offer..................woeful


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


A few of the GFS ENS around 144h suggest this as well.However at best this could slow down the Atlantic train for a short while and certainly no chance of reversing it!

nsrobins
29 January 2014 08:14:16

Plumbing new depths the outlook remains very unsettled with a load more rain and very windy at times.
Even the Russian mafiosa running the Winter Olympics may be a little worried as westerly winds look like pushing right into NW Russia over the next few weeks. Extended outlook of 10 - 12deg in Sochi itself but the moutains should retain snowcover - just.

This winter could go down as one we will cite in years to come as being true bile LOL.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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