Good morning all. Here is the latest review of the latest outputs issued by the NWP for today Wednesday January 29th 2014 and raised from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a quieter day today and tomorrow though still with some outbreaks of rain and sleet today as the remains of the recent deep Low over Britain finally leaves the South Coast as it drifts away into Europe. The dry, cold and cloudy weather of tomorrow will be short-lived as a new rapidly deepening Low swings in from the Atlantic towards the NW on Friday spreading a large swathe of rain and strong winds across the area from the SW. This could fall as snow over Northern hills briefly and will be replaced by clearer and chilly weather with squally showers, wintry on hills over the weekend as the Low only slowly drifts away North from Northern Scotland.

GFS then shows the entire remainder of it's run with repeated attacks of deepening Low pressure areas swinging in from the SW close to Western Britain and then moving further North each leaving blustery showers in their wake. The only glimmer of hope visible on this morning's operational run is that pressure rises somewhat later with the worst of the rain transferring to the NW with longer drier periods in the SE. Throughout the run temperatures at the surface will be close to average or a little above.

The GFS Ensembles show complete agreement on the continuation of rain and strong winds from Atlantic depressions close to NW Britain throughout with far too much rain projected for comfort and temperatures on the plus side of average.

UKMO shows another deepening Low having swung North up the Western side of the UK with an active front crossing east over the UK carrying another spell of heavy rain followed by showers.

GEM also shows deeply unsettled weather though it does show the chance of another slip into a cold ESE flow across the NE as the next Low in the series takes a slightly different orientation. This means little for the South with more heavy rain but a short colder snap in the NE with some snow briefly as the rain in the South moves North. By the end of the run all areas are deeply unsettled with centre's all over the place with wet and windy weather for all.

NAVGEM also offers no relief from the recent rains carrying repetitive sequences of weather North and NE over the UK with spells of rain and showers in association with Low pressure spinning NNE up the western coast of the UK.

ECM also shows unsettled and often wet weather next week as Low pressure remains in total domination of the UK weather throughout next week and continuing to provide plenty of rainfall to areas that least need it through the period in average temperatures overall.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a continuation of the pattern of deep low pressure over the Atlantic and the UK bathed in relatively mild South or SW winds with heavy rain for all at times with the heaviest rains appearing to be most likely adjacent to the wind in the South and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Forecast remains as active as ever steaming across the Atlantic, strongly at times and then continuing East just to the South of the UK with just a gentle trending of the flow North over Southern Britain very late in the run.

In Summary today the pattern remains unchanged from yesterday with Low pressure looking in total domination of conditions over the UK throughout the entire output, generally positioned to the NW. This promotes frequent periods of rain on troughs crossing North and East across all areas with the heaviest rainfall still most likely in the South and SW where it is least needed. Temperatures present no problems this morning with the average for the time of year achieved on most days with even some days above average if Southerly winds waft North with any brighter weather between weather systems.