The winter version of summer 2012 is how I'd describe it.

GFS Op really bad news from a Flooding perspective with 3-4inches of rain over the 7 days or so over S, SW, W and NW and widely 2inches for other areas. I live in the comparitively dry East and I can tell you that all the fields and ditches are saturated with no river for 10s of miles around, so I can only imagine how tough it will be down in Somerset come this time next week!

I blinked

I'm considering using a polytunnel to work under

In 40 years in the construction Ind. I've never known it this bad

Er basically I've run out of straws to clutch at in terms of current  model output.

However ever the optimist by Mid/Late  feb (outside the current model range) there could be a  cold spell lurking to pounce when the Atlantic finally  runs out of steam.Before that there is always the Buchan cold  spell from 7th - 14th of feb.(straw clutching where there  are none  to be seen on present output)

We can only hope Roger

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECH1-120.GIF?29-0

So close to having the high but.......................

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECH1-144.GIF?29-0

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Thats what you call a bit wet very concerning.

There you go the double spinner goes under the block just like I said last night

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Perhaps this winter will be remembered as the "year of the tease" as long as this rain stops at some stage soon i dont really care as long as its dryer sunny and frosty would be nice  I just I dont like to see folks and families suffer so much with all this rain to come.

We have clutched so many times we have lost the grip

You have to be f******* kidding me. 

It has support too

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012912/gemnh-0-240.png?12

I can't take much more of this. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/192h.htm

Meanwhile the rainfall picture is looking like February gets off to a soaking sopping dripping  start and the horror of groundwater flooding (where the water simply oozes up out of the ground, not a lot you can do about it) looks increasingly likely to do damage in the aquifers across  Britain.

Indeed you did Polar low .However it looks at present as though its anotyer  one day wonder.Its groundhog day again a week on.!

Alternatively it could be the beginning of the 7-14 Feb Buchan cold spell....... 

The ECM chart for day 10 bears a remarkable resemblance to the one for tomorrow...think about it...

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 29th 2014 and taken from the Midsomer Norton and Radstock Weather Website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a light Easterly flow over Britain and rather stronger cold winds in the NE. Cold weather will prevail over the coming 24-36 hours with a little rain or sleet in places in generally cloudy skies. On Friday a deepening area of Low pressure moves it's way towards Western Scotland with active fronts crossing steadily East and North across the UK bringing spells of heavy rain preceded by sleet or snow on Northern hills in strong Southerly winds veering more towards the West later and bringing a change to showery conditions with showers again turning wintry over the hills, even over the South at times over the weekend.

GFS then shows next week as very unsettled with a new deepening depression as early as Monday bringing rain and gales NE across the UK. Through the week further spells of heavy rain and strong winds continue with gales at times and temperatures close to average. In the lower resolution of the output tonight things show no real sign of significant change with winds between South and West throughout carrying further depressions up to the NW of the UK and pushing troughs NE across the UK with incessant spells of rain and showers alternating in temperatures well up to average.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a resolute solution towards wet and windy weather predominating throughout the oncoming two weeks with upper 850 temperatures above the seasonal average beyond this weekend and very little indication of anything more reliably settled anywhere tonight.

UKMO shows a very unstable SW flow across the UK fuelled by a deep depression South of Iceland. Secondary Low pressure areas sweep NE across all areas bringing spells of heavy rain punctuated by heavy showers and squally winds from a SW point.

GEM tonight shows 4 separate bands of prolonged rainfall on a succession of disturbances running NE across the UK from a parent deep Low pressure area out in the atlantic. Winds would occasionally be strong with gales in places and temperatures near average.

NAVGEM is broadly similar in type to the other output with rain and strong winds at times from a similar synoptic setup to the other models.

ECM shows very unsettled weather next week too with Low pressure areas barreling into the UK at times with rain and strong winds for all. One such Low pressure is shown to make an interesting diversion to the South of the UK later next week with the chance of an Easterly feed bringing the risk of snow for a time before a large Atlantic depression at Day 10 reclaims ground from the cold air again by next weekend.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts totally divorce the idea of the 216hr operational chart showing the pattern as before with a strong bias towards the likelihood of a deep depression out to the WNW of the British Isles with a SW airflow over all areas meaning troughs would be swinging NE across the UK in relatively mild air and strong winds at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing West to East across the Atlantic and to the South of the UK, strengthening next week. Later it's orientation is shown to change to a more NE direction carrying it over the UK.

In Summary tonight the weather remains very unsettled and Atlantic driven for the foreseeable future. The ECM operation does provide a little interest for cold lovers at the end of next week but the chances of it verifying is once more very small as the Atlantic prowess once more looks too strong later next week. The most concerning factor from current output rather than lack of cold prospects is the continuing large amounts of rainfall occurring over the UK with little likelihood of any relief for flood stricken communities anytime soon.