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Quantum
28 January 2014 13:52:10

Down with the blue thing!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012806/gfsnh-10-312.png?6


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
White Meadows
28 January 2014 13:54:18
This winter is shaping up to be one for the scrap heap. A true glance back into the late 80's mild & westerly bad old days. Hopefully not the start of a trend…. I've only had to light a handful of open fires since November.
David M Porter
28 January 2014 13:57:42


http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012806&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=192  Maybe winter will have a sting in its tail. I'll be interested to see what FI output we have a week from now!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes there is some definite strat warming being shown on the models, plus its starting to come into the reliable timeframe. Possibly a 2005 style repeat? I do think confidence is growing for a cold end to the winter anyway, even if winter as a whole will turn out to be mild. 



Going back a while, but I seem to remember that the springs of both 1989 and 1990 had fairly cold spells at some point in March/early April, both of which came on the back of very mild winters overall with little wintry weather. Not anything exceptional like last March though, nut notable nonetheless.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gavin P
28 January 2014 14:05:35

Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


The Deluge Goes On Into February;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


No sign of an end to the Atlantic battering + It may become milder as we move into Ferbuary as well.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Maunder Minimum
28 January 2014 14:09:46





. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: roger63 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


There is one signal we are already aware of - the QBO will be in an easterly phase next winter. Naturally, that is only one of the dependencies and it no more guarantees a cold winter for NW Europe, than seeing a comet would. But it is clear that the westerly phase of the QBO this winter, has helped to scupper our chances of cold weather.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


That certainly hasn't helped , no proof of course but I think that has been a key reason for our lack of cold


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


My analysis of QBO shows a virtually identical winter CET on navaege across +ve and -v  QBO cycles.


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


I don't see how that could be. Obviously, QBO is only one signal amongst many, but in its westerly phase it reinforces the PV and the general direction of meteorological travel across the northern hemisphere. As I understand it, the jet is amplified when it is in phase with a westerly QBO, but then, I am no expert on the topic.


New world order coming.
Gooner
28 January 2014 14:11:16






. .  signals favouring a colder winter 14/15 and highly doubt it can get much worse than this one.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


No disrespect, but as Jim Royle would say, 'Signals my arse!'


Originally Posted by: roger63 


There is one signal we are already aware of - the QBO will be in an easterly phase next winter. Naturally, that is only one of the dependencies and it no more guarantees a cold winter for NW Europe, than seeing a comet would. But it is clear that the westerly phase of the QBO this winter, has helped to scupper our chances of cold weather.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


That certainly hasn't helped , no proof of course but I think that has been a key reason for our lack of cold


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


My analysis of QBO shows a virtually identical winter CET on navaege across +ve and -v  QBO cycles.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I don't see how that could be. Obviously, QBO is only one signal amongst many, but in its westerly phase it reinforces the PV and the general direction of meteorological travel across the northern hemisphere. As I understand it, the jet is amplified when it is in phase with a westerly QBO, but then, I am no expert on the topic.


Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


Thats what I thought, surely in an Easterly it would slow it all down allowing for some blocking to form??


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
28 January 2014 14:27:32

This winter is shaping up to be one for the scrap heap. A true glance back into the late 80's mild & westerly bad old days. Hopefully not the start of a trend…. I've only had to light a handful of open fires since November.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Except it isn't really mild, December was mild, January only a little above average.
There were some very prolonged mild spells in the winters referred to where week after week we were 10C and more with a long reach of winds from the SW.
Ths winter has been more North Atlantic storm systems and it has been plenty cool enough for upland snow on occasions.


johnm1976
28 January 2014 14:29:45


http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012806&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=192  Maybe winter will have a sting in its tail. I'll be interested to see what FI output we have a week from now!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes there is some definite strat warming being shown on the models, plus its starting to come into the reliable timeframe. Possibly a 2005 style repeat? I do think confidence is growing for a cold end to the winter anyway, even if winter as a whole will turn out to be mild. 



 


Hopefully, although I've also seen tweets from Matt Hugo and Ian Ferguson saing that MOGREPs + other long range ensembles currently point to an early Spring!!


At some point that vortex has to crack, hopefully with enough time to give us a (winter) chill.


Ensemble output from GFS and ECM both show tropospheric mildness if anything, but I don't know if the models have a great handle on this yet.


It would not surprise me if the next few days hold another flip in store for us.

some faraway beach
28 January 2014 14:48:59

Well I think most of us have now given up on seeing any snow this winter so we might as well look for spring. The ECM ensembles look like turning very mild as we head through February. Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

">http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php


A maximum median temperature of 8C over the next fortnight is not "very mild" in my view.


The 00z ECM ensemble for London.


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html


The median just touches 9C for a single day on 11 Feb.


This winter is not a mild one.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
johnm1976
28 January 2014 14:58:33


This winter is shaping up to be one for the scrap heap. A true glance back into the late 80's mild & westerly bad old days. Hopefully not the start of a trend…. I've only had to light a handful of open fires since November.

Originally Posted by: four 



Except it isn't really mild, December was mild, January only a little above average.
There were some very prolonged mild spells in the winters referred to where week after week we were 10C and more with a long reach of winds from the SW.
Ths winter has been more North Atlantic storm systems and it has been plenty cool enough for upland snow on occasions.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


That's a very good counter to those likening this to a noughties bore fest. I remember the winters of the late 80s through early noughties very well, and they differed in a number of ways from this winter.


winters of the late 80s through noughties - disagree if you want.


1) Northern Europe was mild, but so too was the Eastern Seaboard through Midwest snow belt of America. Not the case this season.


2) The noughties winters were characterised by a Bartlett high feeding slack SW winds over the UK. Damp and mild, not wet and wild was the order of the decade. Where's Bartlett been this winter? He stuck his head up in early - mid Dec, but we've been more Polar Maritime than I remember the noughties being.


3) The pattern was often stable and set back then, whereas for much of January model output hi-res has been t+96 and I suspect this may continue!!!


4) And you'd barely have seen a hint of a scandi high in a noughties winter, that low pressure would have surfed the jet straiht into the gulf of Bothnia and probably not stopped until it hit Moscow. We've had one loitering about for a while, giving us a more polar maritime flow.


Just my perception, of course, and apologies for going OT Mods. I think while we have not had the weather cold fans want, there's sill been plenty of interesting fare for model watchers, and potentially more to come.


Chin up!

Quantum
28 January 2014 14:59:23

This is one I quickly made



Average winter QBO and average winter CET for a few recent years. There may well be a lag so I might get a corralation by doing November-January QBO rather than December to february, ill try that one again at some point. 


 


Edit, the graph on the left came out wrong with the chart labels. QBO is on the x axis, scaled CET on the y. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sevendust
28 January 2014 15:01:44


This winter is shaping up to be one for the scrap heap. A true glance back into the late 80's mild & westerly bad old days. Hopefully not the start of a trend…. I've only had to light a handful of open fires since November.

Originally Posted by: four 



Except it isn't really mild, December was mild, January only a little above average.
There were some very prolonged mild spells in the winters referred to where week after week we were 10C and more with a long reach of winds from the SW.
Ths winter has been more North Atlantic storm systems and it has been plenty cool enough for upland snow on occasions.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Certainly mild in the deep south though


Winchester has reached 7'C or more every day this month and as that would be a reasonable average for mid-Hampshire it most definately has been way over average


Also - CET 2'C above normal this month. No other way to describe that than mild 

sriram
28 January 2014 15:19:05
The most wettest and most snow free winter continues

It's remarkable to think even the notorious 90s and 2000s winters were better than this -at least we saw something sleety then at the very least ?
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
some faraway beach
28 January 2014 15:22:08



This winter is shaping up to be one for the scrap heap. A true glance back into the late 80's mild & westerly bad old days. Hopefully not the start of a trend…. I've only had to light a handful of open fires since November.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 



Except it isn't really mild, December was mild, January only a little above average.
There were some very prolonged mild spells in the winters referred to where week after week we were 10C and more with a long reach of winds from the SW.
Ths winter has been more North Atlantic storm systems and it has been plenty cool enough for upland snow on occasions.


Originally Posted by: four 


Certainly mild in the deep south though


Winchester has reached 7'C or more every day this month and as that would be a reasonable average for mid-Hampshire it most definately has been way over average


Also - CET 2'C above normal this month. No other way to describe that than mild 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


http://www.winchesterweather.org.uk/climate_data.html


Monthly average maximum temps for January in Winchester, Hants:


2007 10.3 C


2008 10.0C


2009 6.5C


2010 4.3C


2011 6.9C


2012 8.9C


2013 6.2 C


I make that an overall mean maximum for Winchester over the 7 years recorded on that website of 7.6C. So I don't think this is a mild winter for Winchester, but if you can find the avge daily max. so far this month and it is in fact clearly over that figure, I'd be happy to acknowledge I'm wrong.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Sevendust
28 January 2014 15:43:54

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Winchester/statistics.html


The above is for nearby but enforces my point that 7'C is around average for maxes in that part of the world.


If I can be bothered I'll work out the current average max which will be around 2'C above that.


Given the current CET I fail to see how anyone cannot see that January has been mild in averge terms!


EDIT - Average max at Winchester this month is 9.3'C

some faraway beach
28 January 2014 15:51:22


http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Winchester/statistics.html


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 
















TemperaturePrecipitation
MonthsNormalWarmestColdestNormal
January4.0°C6.9°C1.2°C12

Right. So the average daily max. for January in Winchester is 6.9C. Daily temps of 7C don't signal a particularly mild January in that case.


But if they have in fact been well above 7C, then of course that's different. Sorry. I just don't know where to find the numbers.


Edit: Just seen your edit, that the current number is 9.3C. Fair enough. 


Edit 2: Still a degree below the numbers for 2007 and 2008 though. A bit of comfort that even Hampshire hasn't returned to the long-fetch south westerly winters before the Big Change.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
The Beast from the East
28 January 2014 16:09:49

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012812/UN96-21.GIF?28-17


It may not be what we want, but a very interesting period of weather coming up. Amazing temp gradient across the north atlantic


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Frost Hollow
28 January 2014 16:20:47

Mean max here in Carleton Nr Skipton 7.9c this month with a mean min of 2.8c, overall we are 2.3c up on 2013 and certainly milder then average.


 

Sevendust
28 January 2014 16:23:55


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012812/UN96-21.GIF?28-17


It may not be what we want, but a very interesting period of weather coming up. Amazing temp gradient across the north atlantic


 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Indeed - Friends in the States are talking about a surge of cold air into the deep south on the back of the latest storm.


Only serves to fire up the jet

NickR
28 January 2014 16:41:58
OK... Lots of very off topic posts in here. I haven't deleted them, but could we put discussion of CET values and the winter in general in more relevant threads? Ta! đŸ™‚
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
The Beast from the East
28 January 2014 16:42:31

Endless rainfest for GFS. No sign of the SSW having any impact


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
28 January 2014 16:47:18
Both Cold and Mild Wet Windy Low Pressure Jetstream PV and Trofs driven and with Short relief ridges shown as predicted by GFS 12z run, It verifying very well- well done GFS run to run consistency.

The better weather is today tomorrow and Thursday, bad on Friday very windy mild heavy rain Deep Low dominates, The West NW flow brings wintry rain sleet and hill snow showers or longer spells of wet or snowy on the hills Saturday- Sunday later high pressure nudges across from the Southwest, it is then west SW winds Monday and Tuesday- Westerly winds then colder after late Monday (Night) and early hours Tuesday a mild slot is replaced with cool and chilly winds- ahead of a Deeper and larger Low from Central N Atlantic that turns it heavy rain with gales or severe gale West SW winds, milder again for many.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
David M Porter
28 January 2014 17:10:03


Endless rainfest for GFS. No sign of the SSW having any impact


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I think it's too early to be seeing any signs of that atm. As I understand it from some model runs, the SSW isn't supposed to really get going until sometime during the first week of February, and the effects of it then it take a good fortnight or so to feed down into the troposhere. It could be that we'll have to wait until getting on for mid-Feb at the earliest before we see any signs of a proper change in the models.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Essan
28 January 2014 17:42:44

Looking at all that 510dam air trying to get here from the west on GFS 12z, I think the only way we're going to see widespread cold and snow this winter is to move Britain into the middle of the Atlantic.  We're just too far east!


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Maunder Minimum
28 January 2014 17:57:18


Looking at all that 510dam air trying to get here from the west on GFS 12z, I think the only way we're going to see widespread cold and snow this winter is to move Britain into the middle of the Atlantic.  We're just too far east!


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Here is a question for those who look into these things, historical weather records that is - has there ever been an occasion when a westerly fetch has been so cold in origin, that it has managed to deliver snow to these shores because the Atlantic was unable to modify it sufficiently (maybe the Atlantic would have to be cooler than usual)?


Just interested to know.


New world order coming.
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