The thermal gradient in the Atlantic does look to be very impressive - which only serves to bring stronger wind and rain events to our shores.
Of the 00z op runs, the modelling by GFS and ECM differs quite notably from day 4. The former has no trough disruption, and uses relatively rounded systems to drive frontal systems across the UK at a fairly typical pace beyond next Monday. The latter has some trough disruption, leading to a secondary LP breaking away and acting to halt the progress of the frontal system on day 5.
We then see GFS taking energy much more NE than ECM, with the latter showing the Atlantic hitting a wall as it reaches us, as opposed to just slowing down slightly, if at all.
With that in mind, there's a fair chance that next week brings higher totals than GFS is predicting (currently 22 to 55mm across England from NE to SW, for example). Corrections to a slower moving frontal system have already unfolded regarding Monday's system, and that's without the trough disruption that ECM has!
You know, I'm getting rather tired of talking about rain and slow moving/stalled frontal systems
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser