http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

No sign of GFS going dowm the ECM route at 216 &240h.Instead of ECM HP block reasserting itself it has been weakened and weakened  and pushed further SE.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

I was out for the 12z runs so I'm just finding out about them now... and if anything the outlook is even wetter for the next week at least! The above chart is just atrocious - over 300% of the normal rainfall across much of the south and southeast.

ECM looks about as wet as GFS, and worryingly it also appears to produce a frontal system featuring a wave strung out across the south from east to west, albiet in 9 days time instead of 8. Although it's at considerable range, it indicates a strong signal for some energy to track close to or over the far south of the UK while the frontal system comes up against resistance from the block to the NE, trapping it across the UK.

We need to see that adjusted south if we are to escape.

Needless to say the day 10 ECM chart is not a pleasant sight, with that 936mb bomb pushing an active frontal system towards a seemingly inevitable stall somewhere across the UK.

I do think, though, that with the PV energy digging so far south in the Atlantic, the blocking to our E and NE is more likely to hang on as per ECM rather than be blasted away as per GFS.

The thermal gradient in the Atlantic does look to be very impressive - which only serves to bring stronger wind and rain events to our shores.

Of the 00z op runs, the modelling by GFS and ECM differs quite notably from day 4. The former has no trough disruption, and uses relatively rounded systems to drive frontal systems across the UK at a fairly typical pace beyond next Monday. The latter has some trough disruption, leading to a secondary LP breaking away and acting to halt the progress of the frontal system on day 5.

We then see GFS taking energy much more NE than ECM, with the latter showing the Atlantic hitting a wall as it reaches us, as opposed to just slowing down slightly, if at all.

With that in mind, there's a fair chance that next week brings higher totals than GFS is predicting (currently 22 to 55mm across England from NE to SW, for example). Corrections to a slower moving frontal system have already unfolded regarding Monday's system, and that's without the trough disruption that ECM has!

You know, I'm getting rather tired of talking about rain and slow moving/stalled frontal systems 

Enjoy the cold and wet this weekend as next week we can look forward to warm and wet if GFS is to be believed. GFS also signalling WIO into FI. I find it incredible that you have to go to GFS 384 chart before the Jet weakens to any degree.

We could still endure cold periods in the Spring months but this is something I personally do not relish.

The sst thermal gradent in and around that area of the driving energy in the atlantic is not helping either James

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif

I think you'll find the Atlantic sea temps do not react greatly to the air temps above and so the relatively warm sea massively modifies the air before it reaches our shores.  Cold Easterly winds seem to have more of an impact on the sea temps but I think this is still limited in the Western approaches.

That same chart also heralds the arrival of a warm early Spring in Southern Europe and more importantly a retreat of the cold to our East.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday January 30th 2014 taken from Midsomer Norton and Radstock Weather Website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a quiet day today as the remains of the early week Low remain close to SE England. Through tonight and tomorrow a very active depression deepens over the Atlantic and spins it's way up towards N Scotland by Saturday with a series of active fronts crossing East and NE over the UK with spells of heavy rain as a result. Showers will follow, heavy, thundery and wintry over the hills and will affect mostly Southern and Western areas while some NE areas become drier. At the end of the weekend a new area of Low pressure begins to move up towards the SW with more heavy rain and strong winds developing by Monday morning. After a chilly day today temperatures will recover somewhat over the weekend.

GFS shows the remainder of it's run with incessant strong winds from between South and West and depression after depression moving across the Atlantic towards the NW of the UK with their attendant troughs crossing all areas, repeatedly bringing spells of rain and strong winds followed by showers throughout the period and with temperatures close to or above average at times.

The GFS Ensembles maintain a mild and unsettled view this morning with total Atlantic domination shown by all members throughout the period. From this one can expect plenty more rain events over the period with strong winds from between South and West and very little in the way of reliably dry weather lasting more than a day or so.

UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure out to the NW and West of the British Isles with SW winds pumping spells of rain and showers NE across the UK on Wednesday with further troughs looking poised to affect the UK later in the week.

GEM looks much the same with Low pressure out to the NW with frequent bands of rain spreading NE across all areas with some regularity. Winds will be strong at times too but being from the SW temperatures will hold well up to average and possibly above at times.

NAVGEM also shows Low pressure to the NW with secondary Low pressure areas moving frequently NE across the UK with spells of rain and showers in very average temperatures for early February.

ECM also shows very unsettled conditions with periods of rain across all areas at times as further Low pressure areas spin up towards the NW of Britain with temperatures close to the seasonal average and possibly above later.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the likelihood of very unsettled conditions persisting across the UK with a high chance of a deep Low pressure area to the NW of Britain likely to be in total control of our weather with attendant rain and showers continuing to affect all areas of Britain at times, probably still heaviest towards the South and West. The second trend is that it looks like with rising pressure over SE Europe the SW flow will become rather mild for early February.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to flow strongly West to East just to the South of the UK before the trend is then for the flow to tilt more SW to NE across the UK towards Scandinavia in Week 2.

In Summary today all models continue to show an unrelenting run of Atlantic domination as Low pressure after Low pressure is programmed to steam across the Atlantic towards NW Britain powered by a strong Jet flow close to Southern Britain next week. Later in the period pressure does show signs of rising towards the SE of Europe which would pump ever milder air NE over the UK with little relief from wind and rain as further Low pressure up to the NW steers further troughs NE across the UK. There is an almost zero chance of anything remotely cold showing up anywhere over the British Isles within the forecast period given the output this morning and that includes the ensembles. Environment Agencies and authorities looking for a dry spell will not like my report this morning as there seems little relief from events from the sky undoing any good that is being done at the surface in the flood stricken part of our County.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn20417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22817.png

Not much warmth in that

Bear in mind that sea saline saturation varies around the world for example the red sea,relative shallow seas and tropical waters have very much different saturations of salts thus affecting thermal conductance between the two also land air temperature has many affecting factors one which is easily overlooked is water content in soil pure saturation and water content has much greater conductance than that of dryer soil , clay and sand soils all have different exhange of temperatures thus all affect the air temperature in different ways.

quote=soperman;576077]

I think you'll find the Atlantic sea temps do not react greatly to the air temps above and so the relatively warm sea massively modifies the air before it reaches our shores.  Cold Easterly winds seem to have more of an impact on the sea temps but I think this is still limited in the Western approaches.

That same chart also heralds the arrival of a warm early Spring in Southern Europe and more importantly a retreat of the cold to our East.