Almost a plume

very wet and increasingly mild if current output is to be believed.

Each time I look at the latest output it seems to look more atrocious than the last time.

Will no model rid us of this turbulent Atlantic?

Way out at 384h a handful of GEFS Ens which are not raging zonality.1,7,11,16,19.

Very unusual pattern when the composite for winter (so far) is drawn - incredibly active 250mb level that stops dead at the mainland of Europe.

Composite created on NOAA ESRL.   http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Feb 2014 to Thursday 13 Feb 2014:

Western parts of the UK are likely to remain very windy, with gales, and very unsettled at first, with showers or longer spells of rain. Showers may well be wintry over northern hills. Eastern areas will see less frequent bouts of rain and some clear or sunny periods. Temperatures will be mainly near normal, perhaps rather cold in southeastern Britain, with frost and ice possible. Through the rest of the week, the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer to northwestern parts of the UK, still with a risk of hill snow. Southeastern areas will also be unsettled but the risk of heavy rain and gales will be lower. Temperatures will remain close to normal with a continued risk of overnight frost and ice. Little change expected into the following week.

Updated: 1147 on Thu 30 Jan 2014

UK Outlook for Friday 14 Feb 2014 to Friday 28 Feb 2014:

Current indications point towards early February's changeable conditions persisting through the rest of the month. 

Interesting METO.Looks like HP block to E could protect SE from worst of the wind and gales.

February forecast changaable near average temperatures.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013012/gfsnh-0-126.png?12

Higher pressure over Scandi on this run

Hi all,

Here's today's video update (very late with this, sorry about that)

Cold End To February On Beijing Climate Center:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Could be more whistling in the dark, or perhaps we will get an end of winter flip.

Next week looks horrendously wet, real problems i think if that all comes off

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013012/gfsnh-0-174.png?12

More interesting, with the pattern sinking further south

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014013012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17

Azores high pummeled, but we dont have the high up north

Synoptically very interesting and look how far south the 0 isotherm gets.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013012/gfsnh-1-186.png?12

Cheers Gav.

A cold and proper wintry blast would be welcome and a break of this rain.

I spy a Bering High! (Remember that?)

A break from the rain would....mind you various sources have promised that throughout the winter 

 Not only we have to contend with the heavy rain, but oh look, severe gale force southerly wind at night time on Wednesday. Again: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=uv10&HH=132&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

It is quite a long way off in reliable forecasting terms (six days away) so I'm hopng it does get toned down a little in time, but since the mighty GFS is very good at handling this kind of thing from this range . . .