Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the morning outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 31st 2014.
All models show a deep Low pressure area steaming in from the West today and settling near NW Britain pushing troughs across the UK through the day with spells of heavy rain followed by wintry showers tonight and strengthening SW winds. Tomorrow will become very windy with severe gales in the South and West with the real risk of another storm surge giving rise to coastal flooding issues in these areas. Inland sunshine and showers will be present with hail and thunder between brighter intervals. This showery theme extends into Sunday as the Low only slowly moves away North from Scotland so winds should be less strong.
GFS then shows the rest of it's run with very changeable weather with further spells of rain and strong winds at times with a drier anticyclonic period for parts of the UK for a time later before the unsettled regime returns.
The GFS Ensembles today are concerning again today as they indicate no relief from the very wet pattern of this winter so far with spells of rain predominant throughout the period. The only differing trend from the current situation is the raising of temperatures into the mild category as we pass deeper into next week and through Week 2.
UKMO today closes it's run with next Thursday showing the whole of the North Atlantic and the British Isles being covered in Low pressure in one shape or form with further spells of rain and showers but with slack winds it looks as though night's could be quite cold and frosty should skies clear between the rain and showers.
GEM also shows very unsettled weather in SW winds as Low pressure areas continue to bring spells of rain and showers throughout the next 10 days with temperatures recovering towards near average.
NAVGEM also shows very unsettled weather with low pressure close to Northern Britain with wet and windy conditions persisting over the UK with strong winds at times and average temperatures.
ECM today is quite simply appalling for SW Britain who look like bearing the brunt of repeated attacks of Low pressure areas and fronts moving in off the Atlantic, each bringing it's own version of heavy rain and potentially strong winds. Temperatures may rise a little above average at times later in the period.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show no change to the general synoptic setup of Low pressure to the North and NW with SW winds carrying rain and strong winds across all areas of the UK with the wettest weather still likely to be towards the South and West.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to cross the Atlantic just to the South of the UK and only slowly drifting North to be over the UK later.
In Summary the weather pattern remains a very serious one with regard to pending amounts of rainfall that can be expected if any of the current model projections verify. With little notable change to the pattern away from Low pressure Atlantic based weather continuing for the foreseeable future we can only expect further newsworthy events and disruption making media headlines over the next few weeks. On a minute meaningful scale temperatures will probably rise somewhat later in the run with little or no prospect of cold weather anytime soon.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset