Good evening. Here is the evening report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 31st 2014.
All models continue to show very unsettled and potentially stormy weather over the next 4 or 5 days. Through this period there are three distinct periods of concern shown by all output. Tomorrow will see the UK battered by gales and squally showers followed by something of a respite on Sunday. On Monday the second attack comes up from the SW with further very heavy rain and strong winds. A return to showers on Tuesday is followed by a worryingly bad spell of weather with severe gale force winds and flooding rain on Wednesday with near average temperatures throughout.
GFS then shows the rest of the run similar to that of this morning's with very changeable weather alternating between windy and wet weather with brighter and more showery conditions at times. A drier and brighter interlude under a rare anticyclonic interlude is shown later when it may be accompanied by a rise of temperatures in the SE with the more pronounced rainfall transferring to the NW. However, this period looks far from a pattern changer and it isn't long before such improvements are eroded away by more Atlantic Low pressure at the end of the run.
The GFS Ensembles show a marked warming to rather mild levels by the second half of the run with the weather remaining wet and often very windy as Atlantic Low pressure areas and fronts continue to bring rain in milder SW winds.
UKMO closes tonight showing next Thursday with a deep depression over Ireland on Wednesday clearing slowly North on Thursday with a small secondary feature close to Southern Britain threatening more wind and rain for the South while the North sees strong Westerly winds and showers.
GEM tonight also shows very unsettled and wet weather next week with spells of rain and showers on all days next week before things become rather milder, especially in the South and East later as the most rain transfers more towards the North and West.
NAVGEM is still showing very unstable SW winds next week with fronts moving East and NE regularly bringing rain and showers for all at times in more average temperatures.
ECM tonight is purely awful once more, as bad if not worse than this morning with repetitive spells of rain and showers in very strong winds at times and temperatures around average. there remains little sign of a pattern break even at day 10.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show strong support for Low pressure biased to be to the North of Scotland in 9 or 10 days time with the seemingly ever present SW flow across the UK with rain bearing fronts still in attendance.
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The Jet Stream Forecast remains testament to why our weather remains poor tonight. the flow is shown to blow west to East just to the South of the UK with occasional surges of increased strength powering up large depressions and escalating weather conditions to disruptive levels at times. The flow does inch a little further North to lie over the UK late in the run.
In Summary tonight the Atlantic bandwagon motors on with little sign of any significant improvement shown again tonight. There will be frequent periods of rain and strong winds giving rise to disruption at times with temperatures very gradually rising to average then above average conditions at times later. I doubt if anyone will notice such a temperature rise as for the most part it will be accompanied by a strong SW breeze and further rainfall.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset