Good morning. Here is today's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday 1st February 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show deep Low pressure close to NW Britain with a strengthening SW or west wind today giving rise to high tides and over-topping at tonight's high tide in the west and SW. The weather itself will be showery with hail and thunder possible at times as well as more prolonged showers too as the day progresses. Tomorrow ill see conditions ease as the Low fills and drifts slowly North allowing winds to decrease and back Southerly late in the day. The next deep depression then comes crashing in on Monday with yet more rain and wind through the day followed by squally showers on Tuesday. It's then all eyes to Wednesday as all models show a potentially damaging storm system crossing the UK from the SW with severe gale or even storm force winds yet again accompanying heavy rain and showers sweeping into the UK from the Atlantic through the day.
GFS then shows the end of next week with little overall change as further depressions and fronts are shown to sweep NE across the UK in a very strong SW flow with the only glimmer of light being that temperatures will be close to average or somewhat above at times in the South. The latter end of the run does show a change to drier and brighter weather as High pressure is finally shown to ridge up from the SW with the drying out process allowed to commence later.
The GFS Ensembles show a sustained warming over the coming week or two with little overall change to the wet and very windy weather as it continues to be scheduled to afflict our shores. The drying process shown by the operational has only very limited support unfortunately from within the ensemble group.
UKMO today closes it's run with Low pressure topping and tailing the UK with at least showers for all and also longer spells of rain too, once more mostly towards the South.
GEM shows a further series of depressions and disturbances running NE across the UK in the run up to the end of the run maintaining the thoroughly wet and miserable spell of weather.
NAVGEM also continues to show Low pressure out to the NW with rain at times in strong but often rather mild SW winds especially in the South.
ECM today is as shocking as ever with incessant intense depressions crashing into the UK from the SW with further very heavy rainfall, especially in the SW with strong winds at times too. Temperatures though on the mild side of average will be totally academic, lost by the strength of the wind.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the likelihood of a maintained locked pattern over the UK still well established for some considerable time with the UK locked in a SW flow around Low pressure to the North of Britain feeding bands of rain and showers North and East across the UK each day.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream continues to flow East over the Atlantic and either over Southern Britain or to the South with a particularly strong streak later next week and with very little lessening in strength through Week 2 either.
In Summary today there remains little optimism from me of a pattern shift anytime soon with the only talking point being the degree of severity and extent that each passing depression over the next few weeks impact on an already desperate situation over the parts of the UK that are afflicted by floods. There are plenty of charts which can only be described as alarmist with ECM deeply depressing if verification occurs with wind strengths adding to the already storm damaged landscape. With all the wind and rain frost, ice and snow will be very limited with little likelihood of much of this away from Scottish mountains. There is indeed some support for things to become rather mild at times later in the period as winds from the Azores reach our shores.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset