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Gooner
02 February 2014 11:21:01


Very unsettled and often wet as far as the eye can see it todays output is to be believed.


ECM fi does show some northern blocking though around or close to Greenland.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


GFS FI offers the coldest temps we have seen this winter


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020206/gfsnh-1-324.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020206/gfsnh-1-336.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020206/gfsnh-1-348.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020206/gfsnh-1-360.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020206/gfsnh-1-372.png?6


 


 


 


 


 


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


02 February 2014 12:09:47
What the hell do we need that would scupper and derail this preposterously long train of low pressure systems marauding across the atlantic and pummelling the UK? There must be one single event that could develop out of the blue and cut us off from it? I pumped 15, 000 gallons of water from our speedway track and its drains yesterday, never had this much water ever!!!
VSC
Osprey
02 February 2014 12:13:12

CFS Beginning of March HP modeled to move in from the south and continues


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-678.png?00 


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Quantum
02 February 2014 12:52:26

NAEFES mean



Airmasses quite different today. No improvement for people that want a cold spell, however the frontal zones now seem to be concentrated over norway and middle Europe. The UK is more or less fully in the rmP airmass now so should get a restbite from all the wet weather.


Typically rmP conditions are dominated by showers, which can be heavy and wintry in the west. Strong winds, gales at times especially in the west and moderate temperatures - typically around or a little above freezing by night and 6-8C by day.  


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ARTzeman
02 February 2014 12:55:57

Need a Model boat Ark size for Wednesday's Output/ForeWarning....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gooner
02 February 2014 13:32:04


CFS Beginning of March HP modeled to move in from the south and continues


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-678.png?00 


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020200/run1m1/cfsnh-0-1032.png?00


Not long before something chillier returns of course all JFF


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Stormchaser
02 February 2014 13:32:48

Those NAEFS means can't really account for secondary features developing from the instabillity.


 


It's nice to see Thursday's system tracking somewhere other than the UK for once - hopefully we don't now see a slow trend back the other way i.e. towards a stronger system that tracks further north.


 


Who knows when we'll get out of this rut - but you know what, I wouldn't be surprised if when we did, we ended up having month after month of unusually dry weather.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gavin P
02 February 2014 13:41:39

Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


Strat Warming But Atlantic Domination Goes On...


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


No sign of a change in the forseeable future - Wet and stormy it is.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Quantum
02 February 2014 13:51:15

Im actually quite encouraged by the ECM240. It does seem like high pressure is starting to extend at least at the surface level, there is even a slight height rise to go with it. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
02 February 2014 13:52:23
sriram
02 February 2014 14:01:51
Rain rain rain

Just makes you think what would have happened if every rain drop was replaced with a snow flake
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Gooner
02 February 2014 14:03:23

Rain rain rain Just makes you think what would have happened if every rain drop was replaced with a snow flake

Originally Posted by: sriram 


Be alot less flooding but more roads blocked


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
02 February 2014 14:04:18

Rain rain rain Just makes you think what would have happened if every rain drop was replaced with a snow flake

Originally Posted by: sriram 


Its possible something like that happened during the 1700s, historical records show an unusual prevelance of westerlies despite severe cold and snow.  


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Osprey
02 February 2014 14:06:29

What the hell do we need that would scupper and derail this preposterously long train of low pressure systems marauding across the atlantic and pummelling the UK? There must be one single event that could develop out of the blue and cut us off from it? I pumped 15, 000 gallons of water from our speedway track and its drains yesterday, never had this much water ever!!! VSC

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER 


About the size of a standard swimming pool


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
02 February 2014 14:31:01

Rain rain rain Just makes you think what would have happened if every rain drop was replaced with a snow flake

Originally Posted by: sriram 


Remember every drop was a snowflake just a few minutes before and less than 1 km away.

Osprey
02 February 2014 14:54:01



CFS Beginning of March HP modeled to move in from the south and continues


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-678.png?00 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020200/run1m1/cfsnh-0-1032.png?00


Not long before something chillier returns of course all JFF


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Yes I did notice that, but as you say JFF


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
David M Porter
02 February 2014 15:27:59


Those NAEFS means can't really account for secondary features developing from the instabillity.


 


It's nice to see Thursday's system tracking somewhere other than the UK for once - hopefully we don't now see a slow trend back the other way i.e. towards a stronger system that tracks further north.


 


Who knows when we'll get out of this rut - but you know what, I wouldn't be surprised if when we did, we ended up having month after month of unusually dry weather.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


A long dry period would be more than welcomed by those that have suffered due to the recent flooding, James.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
02 February 2014 16:37:29
Ahem.

12z GFS Analysis time.

This runs to t162hrs: West and NW and SW parts upto midday Tuesday and some Central areas for a time later I this slot, SW and NW heavy rain moves to Central Areas late, Dry and fine for East and SE parts of the UK.

Tuesday Evening Deep LP moves in for SW to Central much areas of South and SE as well with ares in North and NW drier and finer, but windy and spells of heavy rain with Severe Gales moves in S Central and E SE parrts inc. Wales West Country.

Wednesday Deep LP and temperatures chilly in the heavy rain, better in sunny spells and chilly or cold as well especially West and SW to Central parts, Severe gales with heavy rain plus followed by Squally blustery hail and thunderstorm showers.

Still Chilly and Showery on Thursday as LP moves up to NW and Central N UK, SW and South showers and sunny spells then later in daya band of rain by Thursday night for South band of heavy rain and chilly conditions with it, other areas see lighter Cyclonic or WSW flow and a few scattered showers.

Friday evening Deep LP will affect much of the UK particularly NW West and SE SW S areas Gales for Saturday west SW flow with Heavy rain followed by further heavy and Thundery showers and hail plus hill snow, Colder air from West and SW on Saturday p.m. And on Sunday plus some longer spells of rain with sleet and snow up over higher levels all areas, winds back NW on Sunday as the PV Low heads to our NE on Next Sunday.

That is it for now.

That's not, there is more the UKMO t120 for the UK is a respite fair settled day a break day, Winds very light W or NW then backing moderate or light SW as next Low approaches SW England, Wales and S. Ireland.

By Saturday it turns to Heavy rain band cross UK, and Gale to Severe Gales Cyclonic low pressure storm, with Cold Westerly winds later and showers some with hail and sleet plus snow as well, even to lower levels.

That does my part on here.

Bracknell fax charts and ECMWF I need to check later on today.
Plenty to worry about as far as reliable time frame UK forecasting is concerned.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
02 February 2014 16:59:07
At 168hrs, GFS shows the UK in cold RPM Airmass and 2m Dewpoint at Zero deg. C, and Very windy, low pressure dominates the day even at 12z Sunday next weekend.

The Azores High ridge is prepared to nudge in by the following day, but Deep Low in West N Atlantic is quite active with a large Mild Sector to it's SE and South but a cold Plung in it's North and West, coming from Newfoundland and WSW Greenland especially SE Canada, northerly going into that system.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Chiltern Blizzard
02 February 2014 19:54:23
No posts between 5pm and 8pm - usually the busiest period in the MO thread... Model fatigue has well and truly set in. Endless low pressure systems crashing into the UK - nothing for mild or cold weather fans except for a fleeting glimpse in FI, with no one getting remotely excited about the occasional easterly that begins to be half-consistently modelled, as we know it will downgraded to a day of slightly below average muck at best...

As for the 12 ECM? If you haven't looked, there's no need for me to tell you... You've already know the answer.
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Stormchaser
02 February 2014 20:02:29

It is of some concern to see ECM and JMA bringing back the Thursday/Friday system arriving across the UK having been somewhere near the Bay of Biscay.


Tomorrow's runs will be critical in terms of whether that event unfolds or not. It's the difference between 0-5mm of rain and 30-40mm of rain!


 


Troubling to see the height rises from the south beyond day 8 remaining absent on the 12z op runs. It seems like every door leading to somewhere new gets closed by something or other...


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Osprey
02 February 2014 20:10:01

No posts between 5pm and 8pm - usually the busiest period in the MO thread... Model fatigue has well and truly set in. Endless low pressure systems crashing into the UK - nothing for mild or cold weather fans except for a fleeting glimpse in FI, with no one getting remotely excited about the occasional easterly that begins to be half-consistently modelled, as we know it will downgraded to a day of slightly below average muck at best... As for the 12 ECM? If you haven't looked, there's no need for me to tell you... You've already know the answer.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


That would be Model ROT


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
tinybill
02 February 2014 20:32:37


It is of some concern to see ECM and JMA bringing back the Thursday/Friday system arriving across the UK having been somewhere near the Bay of Biscay.


Tomorrow's runs will be critical in terms of whether that event unfolds or not. It's the difference between 0-5mm of rain and 30-40mm of rain!


 


Troubling to see the height rises from the south beyond day 8 remaining absent on the 12z op runs. It seems like every door leading to somewhere new gets closed by something or other...


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


well watching  country file all i can by  end  of next week   end we might  need  a  ark  that  how bad things  could  get here  in  he u.k.  by  then!!!

GIBBY
02 February 2014 20:36:16

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's overview of the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for this evening Sunday February 2nd 2014, the text lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm


All models continue the projection of yet another dire set of outputs tonight. The first week is shown to be particularly unpleasant on occasions with Wednesday looking a particular case in question with heavy rain and severe gales a major feature of the day as an intense Winter Low drifts NE across the UK. With a disturbance moving steadily East tomorrow giving heavy rain on Monday then blustery showers on Tuesday and the prospect of further rain and showers late in the week and more especially next weekend there could be a lot of anxious moments to come for those threatened by floods and a continuation of little prospect of major improvements for those already stricken. Temperatures will be average or thereabouts with little meaningful frost, ice or snow anywhere.


GFS through it's second half shows very little difference than week 1 with further depressions rattling over the UK from the West with rain and strong winds at times with things trending slightly colder later after a temporary slight rise in temperatures through the middle of the period.


The GFS Ensembles show a bleak set of members tonight nearly without exception all showing very unsettled and often wet conditions over the period. The previous warming trend has also been eroded further with conditions at the surface often feeling rather chilly despite temperatures close to average overall.


UKMO tonight closes it's run next Saturday with yet another very deep Low over Ireland with a strong cyclonic flow over the UK with fronts delivering heavy rain then squally showers later in the day with severe gales over coasts and hills over the South and West.


GEM tonight shows a relentless period of gales and areas of heavy rain from next Saturday until the close of it's run on Wednesday week. This would induce major travel and flooding issues for the UK infrastructure should this setup verify.


NAVGEM is very little better with deep Low pressure always present close to or over the UK with strong winds and rain never more than a few hours a way from any one place in average temperatures.


ECM again tonight offers no relief from the unsettled and windy period with deep areas of Low pressure steaming in from the Atlantic repeatedly delivering prolonged rain bands then showers in gale force winds at times and temperatures close to average.


The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts remain about as poor as they could be with the likelihood of a deep depression or depressions out to the North and NW of the UK and an Azores High placed well South of it's home ground keeping the UK in a broad and very unstable SW flow with further spells of rain or showers at times in average temperatures.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif


The Jet Stream shows the flow in a strong and flat mood as it flows directly West to east across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain or France powering it's relentless feed of low pressure to it's North with little if any evidence of significant change over the period covered by tonight's output.


In Summary there remains little cheer for those looking for a break from this fascinating but monotonous period of sustained wet and windy disruptive weather. Over the period of tonight's output all models show various opportunities for gales and heavy rain will little relief in between rain bouts as Low pressure after Low pressure maintains the prospect of almost unprecedented Winter rainfall for 2013-14 should the next few weeks charts verify. As of this morning's output with so much emphasis on wet and windy weather from the Atlantic there remains little chance of anything remotely wintry in the way of cold and snow in the next few weeks anywhere in the UK other than in mountainous areas in excess of 2000 feet or so in the North.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Jive Buddy
02 February 2014 20:50:31


Hi everyone. Here is tonight's overview of the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for this evening Sunday February 2nd 2014, the text lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/


snip...


Same old model guffput


...end snip


In Summary there remains little cheer for those looking for a break from this fascinating but monotonous period of sustained wet and windy disruptive weather. Over the period of tonight's output all models show various opportunities for gales and heavy rain will little relief in between rain bouts as Low pressure after Low pressure maintains the prospect of almost unprecedented Winter rainfall for 2013-14 should the next few weeks charts verify. As of this morning's output with so much emphasis on wet and windy weather from the Atlantic there remains little chance of anything remotely wintry in the way of cold and snow in the next few weeks anywhere in the UK other than in mountainous areas in excess of 2000 feet or so in the North.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


Fascinating: "extremely interesting"


Monotonous: "dull, tedious, and repetitious; lacking in variety and interest."


Sorry, couldn't resist


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
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