Good evening. Here is another look at the outputs from the NWP, this time from the 12 noon outputs for today Tuesday February 4th 2014 and lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show very unsettled conditions through the period covered by tonight's output. Intense Low pressure currently moving in towards the UK from the SW will bring severe gales and locally storm force winds with heavy rain followed by squally showers over tonight and tomorrow. By Thursday a new Low threatens Southern Britain with yet more heavy rain with the North escaping from this feature and maintaining a more showery regime. Later on Friday and the weekend sees yet another major storm system rattle in from the Atlantic with a repeat performance of tonight and tomorrow's sequence of events. Through the period temperatures will remain close to average overall offset by the strength of the wind but there could be some colder interludes especially over the North when some of the precipitation may fall as snow.
GFS then shows next week as being little different to this one with incessant Low pressure sending spells of rain and showers across the UK in winds somewhat lighter than this week as a small consolation. Temperatures will remain largely close to average but it will steadily turn colder later as High pressure builds to the North and finally cuts off the Atlantic feed for a time at least.
The GFS Ensembles show a slight drying process later in Week 2 but until then the same weather patterns prevail with further disruption likely. Temperatures continue to show little deviation from levels currently being experienced.
UKMO shows next Monday to be continuing unsettled and wet as the charts show the UK surrounded and covered in Low pressure areas each bringing the risk of sustained heavy rain and showers in close to average temperatures.
GEM tonight remains every bit as turbulent as this morning's model run with Low pressure areas continuing to wind their way across the UK from the Atlantic and keeping the regular occurrences of wind and rain going.
NAVGEM also shows little relief next week as the proximity of Low pressure is close by with further rain and showers in blustery and sometimes strong winds.
ECM is about as ugly and concerning as I think I can remember model watching with virtually all of the Atlantic, the UK and NW Europe covered in very Low pressure next week with separate centres moving East within the general complex each bringing their own spells of heavy rain and occasional gales in average temperatures or maybe somewhat below in the North. The last day of the run shows a little light at the end of the tunnel as the procession of Low pressure is slowed giving somewhat drier gaps in a still basically unsettled period.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts show a continuation of the theme of the last fw days with most members within the ensemble group showing Low pressure close by to the NW of Britain and maintaining inclement conditions in SW winds and copious rain at times. There is little support for the cessation of the train of Low pressure indicated by the operational run unfortunately.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream shows the flow unrelenting in it's quest as it moves East strongly over the Atlantic and across areas of Southern Europe for the reliable future. The only difference of note tonight is a weakening of the flow late in the run which does rub off on tonight's operational in weakening the Atlantic procession of Low pressure in about two weeks time.
In Summary tonight there remains a lot of very unsettled and occasionally stormy weather to get through before we see a grain of hope for about 10-14 days time as there is a little indication of a weakening of the pattern late in the output tonight with rather more dry weather between the rain bands in somewhat less windy weather as we approach the second weekend. However, in the grand scheme of things this remains a distant straw to clutch in an otherwise depressing set of output again tonight.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset