Interesting GFS and UKMO

Surprised no one seems to have posted. Gradual creeping in of colder and colder PM air and increasing chances of wintryness. Not for me yet but areas further north

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png

Wakey wakey. Winter may not be done yet

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

About time! All we need now is some cold air

 

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We officially have a trend

 

Been on the past 4 runs or so - growing signs of something happening to the north.

 

Anyone in the Know with the SSW events forecast recently?  Seems the setup has the hall marks of reversing the trade winds etc...

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Similar theme from GEM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014020412/gemnh-0-180.png?12

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In the south.
The warnings aren't over a very large are that I can see?

Further north it's just standard winter fare - some rain and windy once or twice

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Significant cyclosis on the GFS towards the end of high res. I really am starting to smell change on the models (finally). 

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Anyone up for Round 27 or whatever it is!

Its bound to happen eventually.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

An encouraging Valentines day chartt from GEM.

 

Yes, I've noticed that about this winter as well. It must be because there has been so little by way of notable frost due to high pressure having so little influence on our weather since mid-December, due to the constant barrage of low pressures from the atlantic we have seen. Even the high pressure that was close to the Uk during the first half of December didn't give much frosty weather IIRC, as it was faurly mild in most places at the time.

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Well the issue people were saying was that the SSW didn't seem to be propagating too far down. Although I did read a paper that suggested it could miss the mid levels entirely and go straight into the lower trop. Which is why I was raising an eyebrow at the expanding shallow greenland high (usually I wouldn't care about it at all because of a lack of significant height rise). 

 

Also the NAEFES this morning had very different airmasses to yesterday and actually had us in a cP airmass. Glad I revised by feb CET prediction down, wishing I'd gone even lower now. 

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Cheers Gav.

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Ok then.

12z GFS to 180h, and the UKMO t120 and t144h.

The Severe gales and band of Heavy rain and prolonged scattered heavy showers Tonight and Tomorrow Wednesday, Deep Low pressure Cemtred over Ireland West Central areas, it's Stormy for all areas those who will see it will have to batten down the hatches and need plenty of sandbags plus those areas facing South and SW plus W. coasts could see flood barrier's defences breached- as has been typical for many this winter.

Further Heavy rain across England and Wales on Thursday as well, when some milder Southerly to SW winds will come but they will not be very strong, 20-30 mm of rain the Met Office are predicting.

On Both Saturday and First 3/4 of Sunday next batch of Gale to severe Gale winds Cyclonic LP expected to bring bands of heavy showers and some longer spells of rain in the frontal system.

This Wednesday and more likely this weekend the temperatures will be in the near average category, which by the following three days week after that more Windy with heavy blustery hail and sleet or snow plus rain showers and Active Frontal System rain with large Cold Pool embedded in further eastward tracking PV RPM N Atlantic cold plunge is forecasted by the GFS and the UKMO (Monday next is at t144hrs).

This amount of rainfall based on the seasonal values we are getting this late Autumn and Early to midwinter season is more matching the Year of 1998.

This year I hope that we get some fairly satisfying weather as we enter March and April, I know that cold frosty weather is good to the Gardening Fans, I know that a lot but now hopes of Spring and summer are in my mind, I am a fan of the Continental Climate, it appears that nice winter or summer weather often has more chances of being in the USA or Spain or Norway or France or in Germany and in Belgium for example.

I have been in this forum since December 2001, and I have seen some great winter snowfalls as well as the usual cold frosty nights but this W E A t H E R this time period in mention has caused many sad faces on here good luck if you can handle this situation.

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A few things I look out for in a pattern change from zonal to blocked.

- Eliptical shaped lows with a W-E facing major axis. I.e depressions that have bigger north and south faces, and a warm sector with westerly winds. Eliptical lows with large west and east faces are also excellent. 

- Secondary lows getting quite far south (say france) with a tight frontal system.

- Southwesterly or southerly winds over newfoundland, pointing to western greenland. When this is accompnied by a height rise, it is excellent.

- Height rise over greenland in general, perhaps from the east or north even.

 

 

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Beast, looks thoroughly wet and miserable to me? I doubt there will be much in the way of colder air to tap into if indeed the day does eventually come for wintry looking charts to evolve into real time weather.
In the meantime some mean looking rainfall totals are looking to mount up.

Hmmm, could be a trend or it could amount to nothing.

The weather is behaving like a petulant women that teases you with promises when you ignore her!

Andy

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That's been the way of it thus far this winter Andy, but there does now seem to be some indication of a possible easing of intensity of LP systems as we go further into February. That has been the one constant this winter so far, that the atlantic has been exceptionally lively, so if it does start to quieten down then it may well be the first indication of a possible change.

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In that case lets all go down the pub.  Leave the weather to text her mates saying how distant weve been lately.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/192h.htm

Meanwhile in model land, the forecast amounts of rain in the south and southwest - affecting millions of people  -are looking dire

  

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A sinking jet is really bad news for the south. What we need is high pressure and not a displaced jet.....or certainly not that type of displacement. Not that anything we say on here makes any difference!

ECM 12z is full of Davey types rainfests from start to finish!

I wouldn't rule out some wet snow events in their to based on the ECM 12z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

 

 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020412/ECH1-24.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020412/ECH1-48.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020412/ECH1-96.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020412/ECH1-144.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020412/ECH1-192.GIF?04-0

LP after LP crossing the UK , what an unsettled period we are in for

 

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LOL Duane - I would class them as Moomins armageddon. Whatever they are, the ambient conditions have coolec over the weeks as you might expect due to mid-winter lag and the constant cooling on the far side of the Atlantic. I certainly think there will be some wintriness at times in favoured areas again

   insane run from gm for the south

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

Good evening. Here is another look at the outputs from the NWP, this time from the 12 noon outputs for today Tuesday February 4th 2014 and lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show very unsettled conditions through the period covered by tonight's output. Intense Low pressure currently moving in towards the UK from the SW will bring severe gales and locally storm force winds with heavy rain followed by squally showers over tonight and tomorrow. By Thursday a new Low threatens Southern Britain with yet more heavy rain with the North escaping from this feature and maintaining a more showery regime. Later on Friday and the weekend sees yet another major storm system rattle in from the Atlantic with a repeat performance of tonight and tomorrow's sequence of events. Through the period temperatures will remain close to average overall offset by the strength of the wind but there could be some colder interludes especially over the North when some of the precipitation may fall as snow.

GFS then shows next week as being little different to this one with incessant Low pressure sending spells of rain and showers across the UK in winds somewhat lighter than this week as a small consolation. Temperatures will remain largely close to average but it will steadily turn colder later as High pressure builds to the North and finally cuts off the Atlantic feed for a time at least.

The GFS Ensembles show a slight drying process later in Week 2 but until then the same weather patterns prevail with further disruption likely. Temperatures continue to show little deviation from levels currently being experienced.

UKMO shows next Monday to be continuing unsettled and wet as the charts show the UK surrounded and covered in Low pressure areas each bringing the risk of sustained heavy rain and showers in close to average temperatures.

GEM tonight remains every bit as turbulent as this morning's model run with Low pressure areas continuing to wind their way across the UK from the Atlantic and keeping the regular occurrences of wind and rain going.

NAVGEM also shows little relief next week as the proximity of Low pressure is close by with further rain and showers in blustery and sometimes strong winds.

ECM is about as ugly and concerning as I think I can remember model watching with virtually all of the Atlantic, the UK and NW Europe covered in very Low pressure next week with separate centres moving East within the general complex each bringing their own spells of heavy rain and occasional gales in average temperatures or maybe somewhat below in the North. The last day of the run shows a little light at the end of the tunnel as the procession of Low pressure is slowed giving somewhat drier gaps in a still basically unsettled period.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts show a continuation of the theme of the last fw days with most members within the ensemble group showing Low pressure close by to the NW of Britain and maintaining inclement conditions in SW winds and copious rain at times. There is little support for the cessation of the train of Low pressure indicated by the operational run unfortunately.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream shows the flow unrelenting in it's quest as it moves East strongly over the Atlantic and across areas of Southern Europe for the reliable future. The only difference of note tonight is a weakening of the flow late in the run which does rub off on tonight's operational in weakening the Atlantic procession of Low pressure in about two weeks time.

In Summary tonight there remains a lot of very unsettled and occasionally stormy weather to get through before we see a grain of hope for about 10-14 days time as there is a little indication of a weakening of the pattern late in the output tonight with rather more dry weather between the rain bands in somewhat less windy weather as we approach the second weekend. However, in the grand scheme of things this remains a distant straw to clutch in an otherwise depressing set of output again tonight.

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