So here we are, heading into a period of weather that might just go down in history in terms of the flooding that it may cause. Not only that, but there could be some notable wind damage in places too.

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

The Atlantic scene this morning features one of the most photogenic storms I've ever seen - a true manifestation of the GFS 'dartboard' low that we have so often mocked over the years.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-7.83,46.63,665

It's still developing in terms of intensity, and the models predict that the frontal system will become very strong indeed just to the SW of the UK, with winds similar in strength to those on the SW'rn flank of the storm itself.

I do love how you can see the marked wind shift associated with the cold front 

If only it wasn't set to cause us so much trouble!

A combination of model data does indicate 30-40mm for this event across much of the south, even as far east as Dover. Local totals will likely be 5-15mm higher for some high ground and anywhere that gets unlucky with the showers.

Combined with the Thursday/Friday event we seem to be looking at 40-60mm generally across that region with local totals as high as 80mm or so - in the space of 72 hours.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm723.gif

The UKMO version of the Thursday/Friday event brings more rain than GFS and is a good match for ECM in terms of the positioning and intensity of the low - so it does actually seem that GFS is showing us the best case scenario of of the main models this morning!

Good luck out there.

Pretty shocking output.

Tonights low is beautiful and menacing if you look at the current satellite loops.

We just don't get any respite at the moment. The low coming in on Thursday is going bring a lot of rain if it keeps the course shown on the Meto. The only difference being that its coming from the south and hence entrains a lot of warmer air on its eastern flank which can only mean heavy rain.

What's even more disturbing than the forecast output over the coming few days is that there's every sign that there will be multiple rainfall events for the next fortnight, if not longer!

The worst winter in memory?  If the charts verify, surely it must be....

Suffice to say, I'm glad I no longer have to get to and work inside my former hilltop greenhouse workplace these days, my nerves wouldn't be able to handle it (as if wasn't hard work enough in the summer season!).

What a painful winter this is turning out to be, such a shame as the past four days has been quite pleasant.



  

Good links James.

And.... Saturday is looking even more severe in terms of wind.

The doubt initially surrounding the S and SE regarding rainfall Thursday night/Friday morning is also firming up to be an event too. As stated, the next few days do look like being quite newsworthy.

The floods are in the news today.

As the saying goes, 'you've seen nothing yet'.....

It's just a pity this system isn't crashing into a cold block to the NE. Imagine if all that PPN fell as snow??

Didn't it start in December, and has barely stopped since?

Just been looking at some of the gusts recorded and forecast for down in the SW tonight, more than a breeze !

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

And the rain http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

92mph gust on the Scilly Isles reported for 5pm... ouch.

WRF accumulated rainfall for the Tue/Wed event (out to 36 hours):

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014020412/nmm-25-36-0.png?04-17

The S and SW sees over 20mm across the whole of the two regions, and over 30mm across much of the SW region with a few pockets of 30mm to the east of there.

After the Thu/Fri event:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014020412/nmm-25-72-0.png?04-17

The above regions are widely over 50mm with areas of 60-70mm 

That total is higher than on the 00z run that I looked at this morning - let's hope trends don't continue that way!

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/02/04/basis12/ukuk/rsum/14020612_0412.gif

EURO-4 paints a similar picture to WRF, with the Thu/Fri event only just arriving at 48 hours so barely contributing to the totals shown.

The usual caveat applies for anywhere that gets unlucky with the showers - totals could be 10mm or more higher on a local scale.

Once again, good luck to everyone who is at risk from floods or the wind!

looks at those wave heights to our s/w in metres  my board stays at home

https://sites.google.com/site/europeanwindstormcenter/waveheights

very wet and concerning looking fax chart for south and s/e as it swings up from the south

   http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp-png.htm#t72

Just out of interest, and for discussion on future Winter forecasts

Is the current setup of LW after Low as a consequence of the lack of Hurricanes cooling/eating the energy out of the western Atlantic.

My point being the sever cold over the US is coming into contact with un diluted Warm air over the pan handle creating these monster dartboard lows. 

Obivously there will be other factors, but IMO this represents a large contributing factor to why this season is so unusual.  Did we even see any hurricanes last season?

yup a  hard time to come in the next few hours down there with these mean wind speeds

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-moyen/3h.htm

Plymouth

Gale warnings - Issued: 1546 UTC Tue 04 Feb

Storm force 10 veering southwesterly soon

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1625 UTC Tue 04 Feb

 Think Phenomenal is over 10 metres very rare they put that

including a 92 mph gust (Chris Fawkes, BBC4 '1755)

Flights cancelled in Guernsey.

Force 10 winds

High tide coming right up....

Absolutely beastly out there.

Trees down, alot of smaller branches all over the roads, driving home this evening was interesting.....

It just seems so relentless so far this year: storm, then a day or so of calm, another storm then a day of calmer weather, then another, and so on.

Interesting to watch the swell heights coming in on Magic Seaweed in addition to the wind.

My brother lives on St Martins in the Isles of Scilly (my old home as well) and he has just phoned to say that it is the worst people can remember in a long while - a friend of ours has lost part of his roof, there are trees down (on an island where there are very few trees generally because of the exposure) and the sea is doing a lot of damage to the quays and island coastline in general, most of the islands are also currently without power. Talking to him on the phone you could hear the roar of the wind!

Issued a warning on FB most notably for damaging winds for a time tonight and again in association with the occlusion tomorrow. That applies to Hampshire where I live but wherever you are stay safe