So here we are, heading into a period of weather that might just go down in history in terms of the flooding that it may cause. Not only that, but there could be some notable wind damage in places too.
http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true
The Atlantic scene this morning features one of the most photogenic storms I've ever seen - a true manifestation of the GFS 'dartboard' low that we have so often mocked over the years.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-7.83,46.63,665
It's still developing in terms of intensity, and the models predict that the frontal system will become very strong indeed just to the SW of the UK, with winds similar in strength to those on the SW'rn flank of the storm itself.
I do love how you can see the marked wind shift associated with the cold front
If only it wasn't set to cause us so much trouble!
A combination of model data does indicate 30-40mm for this event across much of the south, even as far east as Dover. Local totals will likely be 5-15mm higher for some high ground and anywhere that gets unlucky with the showers.
Combined with the Thursday/Friday event we seem to be looking at 40-60mm generally across that region with local totals as high as 80mm or so - in the space of 72 hours.
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On