Good morning folks. Another wet morning here in the West Country and another poor set of charts to whiz through this morning as I look at the outputs of the big 5 this morning for today Tuesday February 11th 2014.
All models show a squally trough and outbreaks of rain, heavy in places swinging East across the UK currently followed by a cold and windy Westerly flow with wintry showers later with some snow on all high ground. Tomorrow shows showers dying down early in the day as winds back SW and strengthen to gale or severe gale in the SW as another deep and powerful depression sweeps NE over Ireland and the North through the day with another spell of very heavy rain and snow in the North followed by showers, wintry again over hills. Thursday sees a strong Westerly flow as the Low moves away with further wintry showers and this goes into Friday too in the North before the South clouds over again late in the day as yet another deep Low moves up into the South with widespread heavy rain and gales. As this engages with colder air in the North a spell of snow is possible, perhaps disruptive in places before Sunday returns the rather cold and showery pattern once more.
GFS then takes us through next week showing a broad flow of Westerly winds and rain at times as fronts from depressions to the North of the UK cross East in the flow. Pressure will be higher to the South and SW of the UK than of late so the emphasis of the most rain should shift away from the SW to the NW with some drier and brighter intervals between the rain bands. Temperatures will recover to near average values after the weekend.
UKMO today closes it's run at the start of next week showing Low pressure near Southern Ireland moving ESE and delivering another spell of heavy rain in the South and West. However, this Low may bring a spell of snow for some especially in the North and East as it engages cold air on it's Northern and Eastern flank.
GEM shows a rather cold and quieter period next week under a weak Northerly. Wintry showers could occur in places and frosts at night. Further rain at times look possible again later as fronts disrupt somewhat over the UK with no doubt some further snowfall towards the NE.
NAVGEM shows weak ridging for a time early next week with more scattered possibly wintry showers before Atlantic fronts return rain to most areas by this time next week.
ECM shows brief ridging too early next week but it all seems very tentative with troughs also in the mix continuing the risk of wintry showers or rain early next week before a new surge of the Atlantic is shown towards the end of next week with more widespread rain and showers once more.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts are still very poor this morning with the general theme likely to remain one of Low pressure to the NW of the British Isles continuing to steer spells of wind and rain in a typical WSW flow with the heaviest rains perhaps more likely towards the NW though the SW will still get a fair amount should this pattern verify. With winds likely to be from the West or SW temperatures should pick up a bit from those of this week, especially in the South.
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The GFS Ensembles today show strong support for a rise in temperatures later in the run as High pressure creeps up closer to Southern Britain. However, with rain still shown scattered about between the members it looks unlikely it will get close enough though the heaviest deluges look less likely than those of the upcoming 4-5 days.
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast indicates the flow maintaining it's current status South of the UK for a while yet before it's orientation shifts more towards the NE over the Atlantic and the UK in response to pressure rises to the South.
In Summary today there is still no definitive end to the current spell of wet weather with all models toying around with a weakening Jet flow and it's final resting place. As it is this morning all models do hint at some changes likely next week though they all show very tentative solutions which don't underline any significant dry and fine spell with High pressure struggling to take overall control. The most likely solution that I can see today is that after this weeks terrible weather again things will moderate into next week with the emphasis of rain shifting more towards the NW and away from the SW which is a positive in it's own right and it maybe that the South in general sees some drier interludes and less frequent and heavy rain. In addition the rather cold weather of this week could well give way to something rather milder at times later in a SW flow.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset