theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
11 February 2014 10:32:04

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021106/gfsnh-0-168.png?6


MM's window of better weather is slowly being eroded

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Russwirral
11 February 2014 11:12:02

hmmm... that last GFS run (6z) is not far from being a stella run.


 


2 or 3 very close calls for serious snow fall.  the first being the LP for this weekend forecast to sweep north east.  The current run puts it more east, which allows alot of snow on its northwestern edge.


 


After that Cold air arrives to our North east, with the possibility of slider lows entering the mix.  Still no sign of prolonged dry weather though.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
colin46
11 February 2014 11:34:53

http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_m_2014@02@11_10h45m.jpg     yet more rain

shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Maunder Minimum
11 February 2014 12:02:11


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021106/gfsnh-0-168.png?6


MM's window of better weather is slowly being eroded


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Only if the output verifies.

New world order coming.
Sevendust
11 February 2014 12:05:55



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021106/gfsnh-0-168.png?6


MM's window of better weather is slowly being eroded


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Only if the output verifies.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


LOL Maunder - you're as belligerent as Quantum


We can only hope

Gooner
11 February 2014 13:52:35



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021106/gfsnh-0-168.png?6


MM's window of better weather is slowly being eroded


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Only if the output verifies.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Of course MM

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
11 February 2014 16:05:17

Hi all,


Here's today's video's update;


Snow For Some Tonight - Stormy Tomorrow


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Also looks at Fri/Sat rain potential and next weeks possible change to less wet conditions.


A lot going on.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
The Beast from the East
11 February 2014 16:25:06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021112/UN120-21.GIF?11-17


Will it undercut again. Doesnt make it on GFS but looks less wet next week


 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
11 February 2014 16:26:30

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021112/UN144-21.GIF?11-17


YES


But GFS says no

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
11 February 2014 16:30:01

If the GFS is right shetland is is going to be laughing at the rest of us. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
11 February 2014 16:41:42

Only just noticed this now.


But the 6Z was a fingernail away from giving us a jan '87 event


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140211/06/192/h500slp.png


look at that feed. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
11 February 2014 16:59:22

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021112/gem-0-204.png?12



GEM I love you

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gavin P
11 February 2014 17:01:52


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021112/gem-0-204.png?12



GEM I love you


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


LOL! GEM has given us a few laugh's this winter hasn't it?


It's remarkable how few cold outlier FI's we've had from GFS. The recent upgrades certainly seem to have improved the model quite a lot.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Maunder Minimum
11 February 2014 17:07:13



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021112/gem-0-204.png?12



GEM I love you


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


LOL! GEM has given us a few laugh's this winter hasn't it?


It's remarkable how few cold outlier FI's we've had from GFS. The recent upgrades certainly seem to have improved the model quite a lot.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I keep tellin ya - from the 20th onwards, it is all change.

New world order coming.
Quantum
11 February 2014 17:15:15

Yeh....


I think I'm binning the over optimistic GEM; I wouldn't be suprised if its part of a canadian conspiracy to make us miserable and snowless; in addition to giving false hopes. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Osprey
11 February 2014 17:33:07




http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021112/gem-0-204.png?12



GEM I love you


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


LOL! GEM has given us a few laugh's this winter hasn't it?


It's remarkable how few cold outlier FI's we've had from GFS. The recent upgrades certainly seem to have improved the model quite a lot.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


I keep tellin ya - from the 20th onwards, it is all change.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yep! But in the mean time


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021112/UW144-21.GIF?11-18


 

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Nordic Snowman
11 February 2014 17:33:32

A couple of GFS members offered a proper freeze on the 06z run:-


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


However, vast majority kept it mild. A large spreaad indicates uncertainty but my head will always tilt mild.

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Charmhills
11 February 2014 17:37:03


A couple of GFS members offered a proper freeze on the 06z run:-


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


However, vast majority kept it mild. A large spreaad indicates uncertainty but my head will always tilt mild.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


My money is on the Atlantic continuing its onslaught.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Nordic Snowman
11 February 2014 17:41:25



A couple of GFS members offered a proper freeze on the 06z run:-


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


However, vast majority kept it mild. A large spread indicates uncertainty but my head will always tilt mild.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


My money is on the Atlantic continuing its onslaught.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


I agree Duane.

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Quantum
11 February 2014 17:43:53




A couple of GFS members offered a proper freeze on the 06z run:-


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


However, vast majority kept it mild. A large spread indicates uncertainty but my head will always tilt mild.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


My money is on the Atlantic continuing its onslaught.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


I agree Duane.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Well, its soon time to evaluate our wager; I think it could go either way. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
11 February 2014 18:24:04

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECM1-120.GIF?11-0


Could be a stella from ECM tonight

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Steve Murr
11 February 2014 18:27:58

Snow showers moving into Scotland & the North


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECH1-120.GIF?11-0


 


 


Looks good for DOC


S


 

Quantum
11 February 2014 18:30:01


Snow showers moving into Scotland & the North


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECH1-120.GIF?11-0


 


 


Looks good for DOC


S


 


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECM1-144.GIF?11-0


RAMP OVER 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
11 February 2014 18:30:25

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECH0-144.GIF?11-0


Brrrrrr


Toppler?

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
11 February 2014 18:37:32


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021112/ECH0-144.GIF?11-0


Brrrrrr


Toppler?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


We won't be so lucky :(


A ridger.


Say what you like about the 90s, at least you got a snow ladened warm front at the end rather than this undignified way to go. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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