Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday February 11th 2014.
All models continue to show a very unsettled outlook for some time to come with a showery and cold Westerly flow tonight with wintry showers, heavy in the West with some snowfall over the hills. Tomorrow shows a deepening Low moving NE over Ireland through the day with SW gales and heavy rains sweeping NE over the UK through the day followed by 36-48hrs worth of strong Westerly winds and further blustery wintry showers. Then on Friday another very deep depression moves NE across the South with very heavy rain and hill snow in the North before the weekend turns back into a showery and chilly one with wintry showers on all higher ground and a cold West wind.
GFS then shows next week as unsettled too with bands of rain and showers move East across the UK with strong winds continuing to blow from the West or SW with temperatures recovering somewhat with time.
UKMO tonight concludes with Low pressure centred over Southern England next Monday with rain and showers continuing over the UK though with less wind than of late.
GEM tonight shows a complete change next week with High pressure developing to the North and East and allowing a cold Easterly flow with the chance of sleet and snow in places with frost at night especially in the East and South.
NAVGEM keeps unsettled weather going at the start of next week as Monday's Low fades away to be replaced by SW winds and another trough moving across on Tuesday with more rain through the day.
ECM tonight does offer some respite towards the middle of next week as a strong ridge from the Azores High builds NE towards Southern England by midweek next week bringing a dry period with bright and sunny spells in light winds and some frost at night. It isn't shown to last long though before the Atlantic depression machine churns out more unsettled weather gradually moving down from the NW well before the end of the week.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight from this morning's effort with the bias continuing to be one of Low pressure to the North and NW with a WSW flow over the UK with rain or showers continuing at times. It should be noted though that the improvement shown at around 168hrs on the operational is supported to some degree before the deterioration of the aforementioned charts come to pass.
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The GFS Ensembles tonight show strong support for a warming trend from early next week. What it doesn't show is an end to rainfall for any length of time with further rain shown throughout the run from many members indicative of an Atlantic based pattern continuing.
The Jet Stream Forecast remains constant for the time being with the flow continuing to blow strongly to the South of the UK. The flow still shows some indication of tilting more SW to NE over the UK with time as pressure builds somewhat to the South.
In Summary tonight there still seems very little conclusive evidence of any to be relied upon dry weather anytime soon. It does seem probable that next week will see less severe weather over the UK with more standard February weather which at any other time would go unmentioned but as these are not ordinary times any rain next week will be far from welcome and most places will see at least some meaning that the clean up operation in flood stricken areas could be painfully slow. For coldies there is an olive branch from GEM which if verified would bring a wintry period with the possibility of some snow on an Easterly breeze but it seems something of a shot in the dark in the grand scheme of other output.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset