theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

NickR
11 February 2014 21:13:59

First covering of snow this winter from a series of showers this evening.0.4c. It was me that brought it back from Quebec on Sunday!

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



What happened to your -15°Cs? Did they warm up on the journey back? Not good enough, Tim! 

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
tallyho_83
11 February 2014 21:24:26
Another shower of rain - a bit frustrating because it started off as sleet and then turned to rain as temperature rose to 3.5 but now the shower has cleared temperature has dropped back to 2c.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Tim A
11 February 2014 21:33:02

First covering of snow this winter from a series of showers this evening.0.4c. It was me that brought it back from Quebec on Sunday!

Originally Posted by: NickR 


UserPostedImage
What happened to your -15°Cs? Did they warm up on the journey back? Not good enough, Tim!UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



😁
I was being kind to all,we couldnt handle -15c combined with atlantic gales. 30kph was bad enough😁
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
fullybhoy
11 February 2014 21:37:51

Just went a wee drive up the back roads behind Cathkin Braes couple cm's up there, roads very icy, not much here now just some on the cars and grass, odd wintry flurry passing through but not coming to much.

Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
Gooner
11 February 2014 22:05:57

Not too sure about any snow here tonight, rain looks more likely

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Medlock Vale Weather
11 February 2014 22:19:35

For those of us with any snow on the ground it will be gone by late tomorrow morning as milder air pushes NEwards, at least away from highland Scotland.


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014021118/15-7UK.GIF?11-18

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Matty H
11 February 2014 23:06:02
A spell of wet snow at the back end of a heavy rain shower here around 8pm left a thin, slushy covering on the cars
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Crepuscular Ray
12 February 2014 07:29:22
Milking it I know but there is a mere dusting of snow here at 80m and the Pentlands are slightly white!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Gooner
12 February 2014 07:51:55

Not even a sniff of snow overnight here

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


NickR
12 February 2014 07:53:58

Normally I'd be ashamed to post such a picture of snow... but this year, anything will do!


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Essan
12 February 2014 08:06:21


Not even a sniff of snow overnight here


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Nor here.  Just some light rain.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
vince
12 February 2014 08:10:23
Thats the 2nd time this so called winter when forecasters mention snow and sleet down here and poss very slight accumulations over the Chilterns and guess what ,,,nothing. zero ,nul points .... lying bas*****
mbradshaw
12 February 2014 08:11:32

A really thin, icy mess here this morning though it has just started snowing.


About 5cms in Portree to sea level. Lots on the mainland and hills, maybe 20cms at a guess up at the high point of the A87 (around 300m) based on around 10cms yesterday evening at 5pm plus what I can see from the lower down cam at Bun Loyn overnight.

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 February 2014 12:33:43

Really is trying to snow here. Been sleeting for a good hour, but never snow. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
12 February 2014 12:37:41

Thats the 2nd time this so called winter when forecasters mention snow and sleet down here and poss very slight accumulations over the Chilterns and guess what ,,,nothing. zero ,nul points .... lying bas*****

Originally Posted by: vince 


Surely if they mention the "possibility" of "very light" accumulations then you can't be too put out when they don't come off!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
NickR
12 February 2014 12:58:17


Really is trying to snow here. Been sleeting for a good hour, but never snow. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


No such problems 40 mins inland, Q! :)


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gooner
12 February 2014 13:19:49


Normally I'd be ashamed to post such a picture of snow... but this year, anything will do!



Originally Posted by: NickR 


I'd be chuffed with that Nick, don't be ashamed

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
12 February 2014 13:22:19

Thats the 2nd time this so called winter when forecasters mention snow and sleet down here and poss very slight accumulations over the Chilterns and guess what ,,,nothing. zero ,nul points .... lying bas*****

Originally Posted by: vince 


Better chance tonight I think

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 February 2014 13:48:47



The moment MattyH has been looking forward too :S


Snow risk map for tommorow, based on ECMWF, GFS, WRF, EURO4 models. Variety of parameters used, including soundings. Probability is for 0:01 Tuesday to 23:59 Tuesday for snow to fall at some point during the day.


Models indicate an extremely high risk of snow for NW parts of N ireland, and Ireland in general. I think the front will contain a bit of snow on it for these parts too. 


Note, the map is not intended to be a guide for the hills, this is useful for urban sites, or rural sites below about 200m. Cairngorns and higher parts of the pennines will have close to a 100% chance of seeing snow for instance rather than the 50:50 odds indicated. 


Feel free to copy this map wherever, but please credit me :) 


 


Few adendums:


For yorkshire, there is a higher probability of snow in central yorkshire than indicated here (concentric contours would be appropiate); the resolution is perhaps not high enough to show it; York for instance probably has closer to a 50% chance of seeing snow. 


The probability of snow in wales dramatically shifts from north to south, there would be a dividing line perhaps half way down wales where the probability of snow massivly increases to the north of that. 


 


Full sized version avalible here: http://oi59.tinypic.com/2n0q24p.jpg


Click to zoom in. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I hope people don't mind, but if possible could I have a bit of critism on this. How accurate do you think it was? Negative critism is more useful to me than positive critism for any opportunity for inprovement. I can't really be too objective myself which is why I ask; but I note a few things:


- Evaporational cooling underestimated in the north midlands, quite a few places in the 10-30% region saw snow on the original frontal system. This was, I think, due to light wind speeds that followed as pressure rose, combined with heavy precipatation. This explains why some areas to the north of this actually saw rain or sleet while more southern areas saw snow. The models did largelly miss this, but this mistake could have been avoided by paying closer attention to windspeed, humidity and precipatation intensity perhaps?


- Sleet and snow showers more prevelant in the SW than anticipated particularly later. This was due to an underestimation of shower activity, I don't know whether this was avoidable; all the models underestimated it I think, particularly the WRF which handled the shower activity rather appauling (significantly worse than the GFS). If I had only used the WRF then this would have been a complete failure. 


- Less frontal snow in N ireland. Although this was made up for by the snow showers later (and a decent covering in the 95% zone!) very little snow fell on the original front. This represents a large failure on the ECM's part in particular, but also the GFS and WRF. The EURO4 handled this much more accurately, although didn't do so well with snow on the mainland. 


Now the metoffice did get the snow distribution right over N ireland for the front (i.e very little) although they did underestimate the shower activity there later; this implies greater weighting to the EURO4 model perhaps? I should caveat all this with, I don't have alot of data for snow during N ireland on that front. There were very few official observations that recorded snow, no unofficial obs  but the precip type radar did show sleet and snow. I would take observations over the radar, but I note that it is generally harder to get unofficial observations for ireland than the UK, and the official observations are much more sparse. 


Anyway sorry for ramble :)

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whiteout
12 February 2014 15:42:06

Ian F twittering about snow possibilities tonight:


W COUNTRY Additional issue into tonight is risk ice from hail & snow. Ca. 1-3cm snow accumulation above 250m e.g Mendips/B&NES/Exmoor/Wilts


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
mbradshaw
12 February 2014 15:44:01

Heavy rain here in Portree.


My bro is currently heading north from Glasgow towards Ft William. Fortuantily the worst looks to be ahead of him and roads don't look to bad now they are being cleared again. Time will tell though....

Whiteout
12 February 2014 15:56:12

Looking a bit hairy on the A9:


http://www.trafficscotland.org/livetrafficcameras/view/?cam=65

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Whiteout
12 February 2014 17:11:34

Some interesting forecasts from the Met 5 day:


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/devizes-wiltshire#?tab=fiveDay

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Hippydave
12 February 2014 18:10:57


Looking a bit hairy on the A9:


http://www.trafficscotland.org/livetrafficcameras/view/?cam=65


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


Quite interesting seeing that as it is now - came down that way on the bikes doing the End2End in September. Looked bleak at that time of the year, must be pretty terrible up there at the moment

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Tim A
12 February 2014 18:36:21
Rain turned to heavy sleet here at 1.7c
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 

Remove ads from site

Ads