Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 midday outputs from the NWP for today Wednesday February 12th 2014 and posted over from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a deep Low pressure drifting slowly North over Scotland over the next 24 hours with a strong and showery Westerly flow bringing frequent showers with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible almost anywhere over the next 24 hours. A few drier and clearer intervals will separate the showers, these most likely in the East. Then by Friday a new storm equally deep as this one is shown to make a repeat track across Ireland and then on to Scotland later in the day with more severe gales and heavy rain sweeping East across all areas followed by another day or two of cold wintry showers and bright intervals in gradually decreasing winds.
GFS then shows next week and the remainder of the run with continuing unsettled weather though it is important to say things look less dramatic than currently with some drier and brighter spells separating the rain and showers periods in temperatures largely unchanged or maybe a little milder at times than currently.
UKMO ends it's run on Tuesday with a weak ridge across the UK with a weak trough approaching from the West with occasional rain later in the day with fairly average temperatures overall.
GEM shows a more coherent ridge as we move through the middle and end of next week. Eventually some ingress of Atlantic wind and rain does move in towards the North and West later.
NAVGEM also shows Low pressure making it's way back into the UK in the shape of a trough bringing rain slowly East more likely in the North and West.
ECM tonight shows less dramatic weather next week as Low pressure orientates itself on a different course giving the most rain across the NW. Later in the run a slack ridge of High pressure builds North from the South settling things down at long last with the NW likely to be the only areas likely to see significant rain by the end of next week. It doesn't look like it will last long though in it's shown form.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show a slightly less optimistic mean from the operational although the basic pattern isn't far from agreed. low pressure looks likely up to the NW in 10 days time with a SW flow bringing occasional rain to the UK but in less dramatic form than that of late.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of rain at times under an Atlantic influence continuing. Temperatures will rise somewhat to levels near or somewhat above average after the next three or four days.
The GFS Jet Stream continues to blow to the South of the UK for three or four more days before the flow become much more flambouyant as it undulates North and South over and around the vicinty of the British Isles.
In Summary tonight there is still some good support for something of an improvement in conditions from the period towards the middle of next week. There will still be some rain at times likely, more especially over the North with the South seeing the best of drier and brighter spells with some relief for flooded areas at last.
Edited by user
12 February 2014 20:40:12
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset