Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 13th 2014.
All models show a showery westerly flow across the UK today with wintry showers on hills and in the North. Tonight sees a new low developing to the SW and spreading NE across Ireland and the North tomorrow bringing renewed heavy rain and severe gales to all areas tomorrow. As it moves North through tomorrow night the UK will again be affected by a very showery westerly flow with the risk of hill snow remaining in a cold and blustery wind. On Sunday a showery start to the day will lessen as a ridge moves across from the West ahead of the next less deep Low pressure which arrives over the South on Monday with rain and showers and hill snow across the UK to start next week.
GFS then shows the remainder of next week as rather changeable with rain at times as weakening Low pressure areas spill in from the West delivering rain at times and snow over Northern hills. Longer term the weather remains and becomes somewhat colder still with some dry and bright weather with always the risk of rain, sleet and snow around as pressure falls slack over the British Isles.
UKMO ends it's run this morning showing next Wednesday with a slack and chilly Westerly flow across the UK with a trough sliding in from the West bringing some rain across the South and maybe snow in the North as it bumps into colder air.
GEM today has already brought a trough across the UK by Wednesday leading to the rest of the run showing breezy Westerly winds and further rain bearing systems across the UK in largely average temperatures.
NAVGEM closes it's run with Westerly winds well in control still with rain and showers at times with the heaviest rain more likely towards the NW in average temperatures once more.
ECM today carries a ridge across the UK through the middle of next week with two or three welcome days of dry weather across the South which would be very welcome. However, by the weekend the weather slides downhill again as Atlantic troughs bear down on the UK from the West with more rain edging slowly East
The ECM Mean Charts today have limited support to the operational for the midweek period next week but are less supportive of anything more than a transient ridge as Low pressure is still shown with a strong foothold over the UK weather positioned just to the West of Scotland with SW winds and rain at times likely for all again by next weekend after a brief respite midweek.
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The GFS Ensembles are not at all supportive of the operational's colder solution towards the end of it's run instead opting for very unsettled conditions continuing with rain and strong winds at times in a strong Atlantic influence of Westerly winds.
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow trying to move north and weaken after this week which it does succeed in doing briefly before it strengthens again later and edges South again in an undulating form through Week 2.
In Summary after the next powerful depression tomorrow and Saturday there looks certain to be at least some moderation in the weather as we move out of the weekend and into next week. This may not be that apparent early in the week as a new Low will bring further rain but the winds will be less strong. Then towards midweek pressure may rise sufficiently across the South at least to give a brief drier interlude. However, the overall pattern remains unsettled and there looks plenty of scope in the later period for the Atlantic to return in one form or another delivering yet more rain and some windy weather too with temperatures probably recovering from the rather chilly levels currently to something nearer the average and maybe a little above at times in the South.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset