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Osprey
14 February 2014 08:01:34





My mate is a tree surgeon so obviously been very busy this winter with fallen trees and looking at unstable ones, he fears there will be alot more coming down due to obviously the soaked ground but also because they are taking a battering from the left and the right, bit like a boxer getting combitions to the head from both sides.


Evergreens seem to be the worse because they have shallow roots, tall conifers etc


More of the same on the way, not good news


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


They make a heck of a noise when they do come down even at a distance away


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


What if it falls in a forest, and there's no one around?....


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Then no one will hear it


I live by a forest and they make a hell of a noise when they go


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Off topic


I might add it's not so much a tree falling (up-rooting) but more to do with a loud crack/cracking sound as a tree trunk snaps through weakness, the wind, or the weight of another tree on it


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Rob K
14 February 2014 08:05:54
I must say I was expecting to see a bigger and heavier rain band on the radar this morning with all that moisture in the system! Presumably it's on its way?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Stormchaser
14 February 2014 08:13:02

The radar seems to be a bit troubled today; there's this sharp drop-off of intensity in the returns across a large part of Devon. There looks to be a similar issue across part of the Channel too.


Still, the warm front is what we're seeing across the south at the moment, and that tends to be a wide but not all that intense feature. The cold front/occlusion coming up from the SW for the middle part of the day looks to be more intense.


 


7 to 7:30 shows the warm front band gaining a little intensity, so we may not be seeing the real picture just yet.


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Keep Calm and Forecast On
vince
14 February 2014 08:28:11

The storm is slightly deeper on the 0z GFS run this morning compared to the last few runs at 953mb but the difference is not that big

However, the wind gusts on the WRF model have increased significantly compared to yesterday's 12z. Now showing gusts of 120kph even inland. If that verifies things could get very serious tonight.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=22&mode=11&map=5

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=25&mode=11&map=5

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


wonder if a red warning will be issued for the south coast . i got a feeling about this one ,and its not good

Gooner
14 February 2014 08:29:03

I must say I was expecting to see a bigger and heavier rain band on the radar this morning with all that moisture in the system! Presumably it's on its way?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Me too Rob, doesn't look to be that bad


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 08:43:35

The stuff coming up from Biscay is I think the one to watch.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
14 February 2014 10:27:12
It's starting to look like more serious rain now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
iPope
14 February 2014 10:31:42

This morning, between about 7 and 9, it was raining very, very heavy.

It's dropped of a fair bit now to what it was - wind is still an issue though.

Alot of local road are flooded, the A30 has alot of standing water. The odd tree limb down overnight too.

Gooner
14 February 2014 10:38:03

It's starting to look like more serious rain now.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Looks fragmented to me


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Fargo
14 February 2014 11:02:40
Appalling out there. Worse than t'other day. We've had the works this morning; snow, sleet, rain and now the wind's really picking up again. Good luck on the South Coast, chaps.
North Herefordshire 180m asl
The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 11:03:35

The warm front has fragmented, but the cold front still in the channel


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
wallaw
14 February 2014 11:11:32

The warm front has fragmented, but the cold front still in the channel


 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yes Beast, that western section seems to be heading on a more northerly track whilst the eastern section is heading north east/east.

So far we have not had a drop of rain here in Birkenhead.
Ian


Stockton-on-Tees

The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 11:12:40

Slight OT but from the Croydon Advertiser today:


 


A BOURNE expert has said the water levels are currently the highest ever  recorded.


John O'Brien lives in Woldingham where the Bourne begins before it runs down  to Kenley and Purley.


"It will always flood in Kenley and Purley when the river rises above surface  level in Woldingham," he said. "Once that happens, Kenley and Purley have 14  days before they flood. It is the highest ever at the moment and it is only  going one way – to Purley."


Mr O'Brien added: "I get sent pictures of where the council have made new  flood ponds and I think 'don't these idiots know where the river starts?'


"But now there is nothing they can do, it would be like putting sandbags by  the River Thames when it had already burst its banks."


He also said the drainage system at the start of the Bourne was already four  feet deep at the end of January. Now it is 12 feet deep.


Mr O'Brien said the flooding of the Bourne often  foretells  a national  disaster. According to him, the river  flooded in 1938, just before a  country-wide typhoid outbreak. Then in 2001 there was the foot-and-mouth  crisis.


"I can't help wondering what it will mean for 2014," he said. "I have a  feeling Ukip will win a lot of seats in the European elections."




 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
14 February 2014 11:27:49
Some exceptionally heavy returns over the Cotentin peninsula in the past half hour - looks like an embedded thunderstorm maybe?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
14 February 2014 12:17:00

Some exceptionally heavy returns over the Cotentin peninsula in the past half hour - looks like an embedded thunderstorm maybe?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Probably as a result of Lots of moisture + strong winds Vs land /cliffs - sudden and extreme lift = Tstorm


Saint Snow
14 February 2014 12:26:42

[
So far we have not had a drop of rain here in Birkenhead.

Originally Posted by: wallaw 


 


You're in Birkenhead? On the Wirral?



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Russwirral
14 February 2014 13:01:21


[
So far we have not had a drop of rain here in Birkenhead.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


You're in Birkenhead? On the Wirral?


Originally Posted by: wallaw 


 


very odd.


 


i too am in Birkenhead today, and it is raining.  albeit not very consistently


Gooner
14 February 2014 13:16:06

IMBY comment


certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 13:28:30


IMBY comment


certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes, doesnt look as bad as forecast, but the waves off ppn are still developing. Main band coming towards London now


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
stormwatcher
14 February 2014 13:28:42

its been raining here near eastbourne for 5 hours non stop . thankfully i don'nt live near a river but tonight wind is a concern because seaford beach has been wash away  and there nothing  to stop  the huge waves coming over onto the road .like it done in the last storm.

Chiltern Blizzard
14 February 2014 13:31:03


IMBY comment


certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


The projected rainfall totals (according to GFS) have reduced somewhat to previous runs... Just 9mm for me from the event - good job as if the south had an inch widely it would be carnage.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/24h.htm


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Russwirral
14 February 2014 13:32:16



IMBY comment


certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes, doesnt look as bad as forecast, but the waves off ppn are still developing. Main band coming towards London now


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


aye,


 


seems like one portion has split off towards the channel, and the other towards the Irish sea.


 


Importantly missing the areas that really dont need / cant cope with more rain.


Frostbite80
14 February 2014 13:34:38



IMBY comment


certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


The projected rainfall totals (according to GFS) have reduced somewhat to previous runs... Just 9mm for me from the event - good job as if the south had an inch widely it would be carnage.


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/24h.htm


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

That doesn't look right as Northern France is getting a pasting but this isn't shown in those projections

Chiltern Blizzard
14 February 2014 13:38:01




IMBY comment


certainly not the drenching that was forecast, far from iy


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Yes, doesnt look as bad as forecast, but the waves off ppn are still developing. Main band coming towards London now


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


aye,


 


seems like one portion has split off towards the channel, and the other towards the Irish sea.


 


Importantly missing the areas that really dont need / cant cope with more rain.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Not so sure about that... the rainband appears to be on or heading towards the Thames Valley.... Doesn't seem to be especially heavy or long lasting, though other pulses/rain areas will probably develop/spread before this event has finished


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
iPope
14 February 2014 13:45:33

74Mph gusts recorded in Camborne.

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