Or even a happy start to our winter

Agreed; ECM looking very wet with the normal service of regular systems bringing rain, showers, rain, showers, rain, showers......zzzzzzzzz.......

I think the flood victims are going to remain under water for weeks.....

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Thursday February 13th 2014 and pasted across from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show another powerful depression streaming towards Ireland tonight and tomorrow with the current quiet and showery conditions being replaced tomorrow by heavy rain and hill snow in the North and severe SW gales in the South later tomorrow as the rain turns more showery. Through tomorrow night very stormy and wet weather will cover many areas before the Low moves away slowly to the North with squally showers and gale force winds easing through the day. On Sunday a quieter day develops with sunshine and just scattered showers before Monday shows a weaker depression carrying more cloud and rain in from the West to begin next week.

GFS then shows generally changeable conditions with rain at times for the rest of the period with strong winds at times mostly from a direction between South and West. there will be some longer drier spells in between, especially in the South but nothing prolonged seems likely. Temperatures will be close to average overall.

UKMO tonight shows the middle of next week with a slack and unstable Westerly flow across the UK. It would unlikely be completely dry so with this setup showers would be expected at least but with light winds and less widespread rain this could be described as an improvement on recent times.

GEM shows a stronger Westerly flow on the Southern flank of Low pressure to the North. there would be showers or longer spells of rain falling as snow on the hills at times but with some drier intervals with shelter.

NAVGEM shows a similar setup to UKMO at Day 6 moving forward to bring more Low pressure down from the NW with bands of rain followed by showers in temperatures close to average.

ECM tonight shows a very changeable pattern with rain at times in breezy Westerly winds. Conditions overall though will be much improved on recent standards.

The ECM Mean Charts show a worrying trend to more Low pressure to the West of Ireland sucking up warm SW winds from the Azores area and no doubt leading to spells of heavy rain, once more heaviest towards the South and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles show show a bias towards keeping the UK under a Westerly flow, quite strong at times and with Low pressure remaining in proximity (though less intense than of late) there will continue to be rain and showers at times in temperatures close to average and maybe a little above in the South at times.

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow weakening somewhat next week and becoming more of a sine wave pattern which should give a rain then dry pattern of weather as each peak and trough passes west to east over the UK. It doesn't move far enough North through the period to push rain bearing systems far enough North to miss the UK.

In Summary tonight the charts for next week and beyond will at any other time be classed as poor with unsettled weather prevailing. As it is they actually suggest an improvement on recent times with less in the way of substantial rain and much less wind issues too. In fact it looks a very ordinary period coming up once we pass the other side of the up and coming storm with occasional rain with some drier and brighter interludes in a generally Westerly wind providing temperatures close to average.

Cheers Martin - Does seem that we're not sure what next week has to offer - I think there is still a fair bit of concern though.

Its a case of watch all charts etc.

Thanks Gibby for the output.. A slow but welcome change will benefit us all.

Terrible output tonight which TBH is just as well because we would not believe a decent run (like ECM last night) even if it occcured!

This winter is killing the TWO Forums, in the 13 years of TWO I have never known such depression (excuse the pun) descend on the Forum as I detect a real sense of despair amongst members not just of the lack of frost or snow but of the appalling conditions we have had to endure.

At work today one of my colleagues burst through the door soaked through to the skin and shivering having been exposed to yet another 'Penrith Special' of torrential driving rain/sleet/hail, 4c temperature and 50mph wind. With a desperate look on his face he said "I am not sure I can stand much more of this"

He spoke for us all, this winter is beyond a joke and I cant wait for March to arrive and the sun to return.

Andy

Wrong thread Andy but it's quiet in here and I know what you mean.

Most people I speak to just want it over now.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=0

GFS out on its own again>Sets up Scandi HP holding Atalantic at bay for a while before caving in.

Has liitle support from ENS just a handful of cold members at 192 and 240(nos 3,7,9,14,19)

The zonal majority in FI still prcduce some stormy looking weather.

Looks a pretty zonal ride again today. Maybe not horrific but certainly not settled for long and I have all but written off any chance of falling snow this side of March now for my location

An unmitigated disaster. A bit less wet perhaps, but no real chance to drain the ground water. Looks like our Bourne will be flowing for a good while. There already is a "Purley on Thames" in Berkshire!

Good morning. Here is this morning's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday February 14th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show another powerful depression moving NE towards Ireland today and on across the UK to lie to the East of Scotland tomorrow. heavy rain will move north and NE across the UK today, heavy at times and falling as snow in the North, especially over the hills. Severe gales will follow the rain as SE winds veer SW and West later with damaging gusts likely along the South and West coasts later accompanied by squally showers. Then with a showery day tomorrow Sunday is shown to be a quieter day with bright spells and scattered showers before all models show a new but less intense depression move in from the West on Monday with more rain for most but lighter winds.

GFS then shows next week as very changeable with further Low pressure areas to the North with bands of rain and showers moving East over the UK interspersed by shorter drier periods at times in temperatures gradually recovering to average or somewhat above average levels in the South. A brief drier and very mild spell is shown in the South later in the run which could make things feel positively springlike for a time.

UKMO today closes it's run towards the end of next week with Low pressure close to the NW with further SW winds and troughs crossing the UK with rain at times in average temperatures.

GEM keeps things very mobile and largely unsettled through the latter stages of it's run with rain and showers never far away from any one place in temperatures close to average and fresh breezes from a Westerly point.

NAVGEM is also unsettled looking in a weeks time with Low pressure to the NW driving bands of rain and showers East across the UK in blustery winds.

ECM is also relatively unsettled too but does show some mild air on SW winds wafting over the South later with much of the rain from fronts close by affecting anywhere at times but always more prolific in the NW.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts which give a good indication of the weather type likely in 9 and 10 Days time indicate the UK is most likely to be still affected by Low pressure out to the West or NW with a relatively mild and unstable SW flow with occasional troughs bringing spells of rain and showers across all areas at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles show a very turbulent spell of weather overall with many members maintaining Atlantic domination throughout with strong westerly winds with periods of rain and showers in temperatures near or somewhat above average.

The Jet Stream Forecast is still very dominant in the way the weather affects the UK and after a weakening next week is shown to re-strengthen again through Week 2 near to or just South of the UK promoting more depressions and rainy weather for the UK.

In Summary the emphasis still remains on largely unsettled weather for the next few weeks with further rain at times for all. However, it looks like next week will be less wet and certainly less stormy than this week gone with outbreaks of rain more sporadic and less widespread overall. Having said that there is still some worrying charts especially later in the period that could indicate a return to more very wet and windy conditions with the attendant problems that such charts would bring. What no model shows this morning is anything reliably dry under High pressure nor anything cold and wintry as temperatures look like being close to or above average in the South for at least a time next week.

Some good posts here - One or two going OT a bit though - I won't remove them - I can understand how many are feeling now.

Please keep on topic chaps.