Good luck

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Hi everyone. From an exceptionally windy and wet West Country tonight here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Friday February 14th 2014.

All models show an intense Low pressure area (958mbs) moving slowly Northeast then North over Eastern Scotland with a severe gale force Southerly wind over Southern England along with driving showers and more persistent rain maintained overnight. Winds are shown to veer Westerly by dawn with a slow improvement through tomorrow as the heavy showers also slowly clear from the west by evening. Sunday then shows a quiet day as a weak ridge crosses East over the UK before a band of showers and a more coherent band of rain march in late Sunday and Monday but with much less windy weather. Towards midweek it looks like being rather colder with scattered showers but pleasant enough in some sunshine and the much lighter winds.

GFS then shows the end of next week as being very changeable with further rain at times with some brighter and drier interludes as well. This general theme is then shown to last through the remainder of the run with no settled weather likely for any length of time though thankfully without the powerful storm systems than we have endured of late.

UKMO tonight shows a breezy end to next week as Low pressure to the NW steers trough East across the UK in blustery winds with rain at times followed by showers. Temperatures look generally close to normal at the end of next week but chillier in the North with some wintry showers.

GEM shows troughs of Low pressure moving East into the UK with rain slowly crossing East with snow on hills in the North. A more definitive trend towards more mobile, unsettled weather looks likely with rain and showers continuing to affect the UK at times out to the end of the run.

NAVGEM shows the end of next week as a chilly affair with NW winds, sunshine and showers with a ridge moving in from the West later damping down the showers later.

ECM shows a trend towards a strong and mild SW flow across the UK towards the end of it's run with further unsettled weather with rain at times in temperatures above average later.

The ECM Mean Charts tonight hardly show anything inspiring tonight as it looks like the UK will be governed by a large and complex Low pressure area to the West and NW of the Uk with strong SW winds with gales and spells of rain and showers for all in average temperatures and maybe slightly above in the SE at times.

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The GFS Ensembles indicate a changeable spell of weather with rain at times and temperatures near to or somewhat above average for a time in an Atlantic dominated pattern.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The Jet Stream is shown to become much weaker next week as it develops a sine wave pattern across the Atlantic and the UK. After this lighter phase the flow then is shown to strengthen again through the second half of the run.

In Summary tonight the improvements shown in previous days remain tonight. However, it is important to note that while improvements will take place it remains very relative to current conditions and there would still be some heavy rain at times wwith some strong winds too, though without the very strongest winds recently seen. There will also be some longer drier spells between times to at least allow a slight improvement to flooded locations with time and temperatures should not prove to be an issue either.

Thanks Martin

I think the slow moving front Monday through Tuesday could cause some further problems, unless it fizzles out as it crawls east.

After that, all eyes will be on another slow moving system a couple of days later. The floods will probably subside in gradual steps, with pauses after each of those two rain events, if they turn out like what the GFS 12z op run shows.

Right now I'm watching the reported level at my local river creep up to the value seen early last month, with a strong chance of it climbing higher still and closing down on the highest recorded level - just 7 more centimetres to go.

I find the growing signal for blocking to the east and the Atlantic running up against it having pushed frontal systmes into the UK rather concerning... surely we can't be that unlucky yet again?!

That would not suprise me in the least Q's Easterly v's NS's Altlantic...

I don't need an easterly to win the bet, just blocking of some description. An Azors high counts. 

Anyway I still think this could still go anyway. The models were fighting over that 2nd low over the last few days so the uncertainty was pretty high, that was before the 12Z suddenly decided that it didn't even know what to do with the 1st low! If we haven't even got that sorted I'm not taking anything too seriously at the moment. 

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nothing settled about the start of March if verified

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control likes the idea of an Easterly

The 0h output this morning shows, in FI, GFS shifting LP  further north and with axis in  a SW-NE direction.Heralds a mild end to the month, a third mild winter month and as well as wet ,also in the very mild winter category.Barely a frost and  not a flake of snow in  central winchester! 

The brief flirtation with the possibility of a 'dry high' snuffled again as the Atlantic continues to dominate probably into March.

Pitiful.

GFS has a mild run of south westerlies with HP over Europe and near the south for the last week of Feb.

Encouraging springlike scenario with things in a more normal position.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKM, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday February 15th 2014.

All models show the powerful storm of the last 24 hours now positioned near Eastern Scotland and through the weekend it will move away North and fill with winds and rain lessening to modest levels through the weekend to end up seeing most of the UK dry tomorrow. By Monday a much weaker Low weakens further but not quick enough to prevent a spell of rain moving across the UK from the west on Monday, heavy in places. Then as this moves away East Tuesday and Wednesday will be quiet enough days with sunshine and a lot of dry weather if rather chilly conditions before new troughs from Low pressure to the NW bring increasing winds and rain in from the West by the end of the day.

GFS then shows the end of next week with changeable conditions prevailing with rain at times as troughs in association with Low pressure to the North and NW cross East in the flow, a pattern that persists for the remainder of the output this morning in temperatures close to average and possibly a little above for a time towards the SE.

UKMO shows next Friday as a windy day with Low pressure close to Northern Scotland with strong Westerly flow with showers or spells of rain at times in temperatures close to average.

GEM shows a trough crossing East later next week with a showery and chilly NW flow following for a time giving way to a strong and milder SW flow with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West.

NAVGEM also shows an active cold front crossing East next weekend with a chilly and showery NW flow following with wintry showers, especially in the North.

ECM today shows Low pressure to the North as Scotland similar to UKMO with a strong West flow bringing rain or showers at times to end next week. Thereafter Low pressure becomes a dominant feature across the North Atlantic with a strong SW flow with rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts this morning continue the pattern broadly resembling the operational so an Atlantic based Low pressure area is likely to be bathing the area in SW winds with rain at times, heaviest and windiest towards the NW while temperatures probably become a little milder later.

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The GFS Ensembles today indicate a mobile Atlantic pattern persisting through the two weeks with rain at times for all areas in blustery WSW winds. Temperatures will for the most part never be far from average though it could become rather mild for a time in the SE early in the second half of the run.

The Jet Stream still shows signs of weakening markedly in the next week with the resultant quieter period of weather affecting the UK. In week 2 it shows signs of strengthening again though not to the extent of recently.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

In Summary the weather still shows signs of becoming much less severe as we move through next week. All areas will see rain at times but some good dry periods in between and temperatures shouldn't create any problems either apart from occasional touches of frost here and there. Prolonged dry weather however looks unlikely with low pressure in control up to the NW firing troughs East or NE across the UK at times. Conditions for flooded areas will ease very slowly but the additional rain next week will slow any major improvements for some time yet.

Thank you Martin.. So glad their  is a light at the end of the culvert coming soon.

The good news is the storms maybe over, but rainfall totals will keeping totting up, so groundwater levels will not have a chance to fall

Indeed, daytime temps well into double figures, would feel spring like in any sunshine. Bring it on

Agreed

The writing was on the wall for this pathetic excuse of a winter back in December. However, I guess none of us thought it would be quite so stormy and wet for such a duration.

It has been one of those winters which makes you positively hate the British weather and want to emigrate. Then you can think of beautiful, summer afternoons when Britain appears to be the best place in the world. I guess we just have to take the rough (and the very rough) with the smooth.

I was thinking that, rain is still very much on the cards

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unsettled unsettled unsettled