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Gavin P
14 February 2014 10:14:44

GFS ensembles haven't updated since Thursday at W-Z on this link;


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 


Anybody know if they've moved to a new URL?


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 10:14:53

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021406/gfsnh-0-108.png?6?6


Encouraging at this point


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
14 February 2014 10:31:42

SB, that would surely be a little unusual in an internet forum essentially designed for people to discuss their shared like of interesting weather? Come next winter, as ever, many people will be looking for cold and snow, blizzards, ice days, easterlies etc.

It's not a case of being older and wiser, more informed or more mature it's a case of showing interest in weather extremes on a weather forum. It's not exclusively the young, ill-informed, naive or inexperienced that want to see wintry weather in winter or certainly not on a weather fans' discussion forum.

That's not the same as being fed up of damaging and relentless wind and rain. Like many, I would fully embrace drier and calmer conditions but I would still show strong interest in forthcoming wintry weather (if there was any sign of any!)

As for the outlook currently, less unsettled in the medium term would probably sum it up.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


What a strange post from SB and yes this is a weather forum SB your do well to remember that.


Model wise still looking usettled and at times wet though not as stormy as it has been.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
SEMerc
14 February 2014 10:34:46

I think GFS has thrown in the towel. It looks to be stuck at T+108.

Osprey
14 February 2014 10:38:43


I think GFS has thrown in the towel. It looks to be stuck at T+108.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Model is fighting with itself


One side says more rain the other, dry freeze


 


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Gooner
14 February 2014 10:40:33

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif


6z so far


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
14 February 2014 11:01:13
The cold air heads to Greece, but I think most would be happy enough with this!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Osprey
14 February 2014 11:19:19

The cold air heads to Greece, but I think most would be happy enough with this!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif


Ooer! I lke that...


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Russwirral
14 February 2014 11:21:08

Well then - apart from the odd blip FI is starting to shape up a little better, with Dryer and colder weather potentially on the cards.


 


A dry Easterly would be very welcome to pretty much everyone.


Frostbite80
14 February 2014 11:29:00

Perbs 1,7,8 show nice easterlies

Gooner
14 February 2014 11:44:19

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021406/gfsnh-1-264.png?6


really cold air flirts with the UK


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Frostbite80
14 February 2014 11:47:17


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021406/gfsnh-1-264.png?6


really cold air flirts with the UK


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

And look at the depth of the cold in the US again

Gooner
14 February 2014 11:47:40


Perbs 1,7,8 show nice easterlies


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-1-1-192.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-7-1-228.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-8-1-180.png?6


Certainly a colder flow


 


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
14 February 2014 11:49:37



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021406/gfsnh-1-264.png?6


really cold air flirts with the UK


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

And look at the depth of the cold in the US again


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Haven't they done well, Gav did call that back in October IIR


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Frostbite80
14 February 2014 11:59:07




http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021406/gfsnh-1-264.png?6


really cold air flirts with the UK


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

And look at the depth of the cold in the US again


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 


Haven't they done well, Gav did call that back in October IIR


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

They sure have, my bro lives in NJ and it hasn't stopped. Good call Gav

Sevendust
14 February 2014 12:08:32




http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021406/gfsnh-1-264.png?6


really cold air flirts with the UK


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

And look at the depth of the cold in the US again


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Haven't they done well, Gav did call that back in October IIR


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

They sure have, my bro lives in NJ and it hasn't stopped. Good call Gav

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


May not be great news for us though - zonality rules

roger63
14 February 2014 12:22:24





http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021406/gfsnh-1-264.png?6


really cold air flirts with the UK


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

And look at the depth of the cold in the US again


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 


Haven't they done well, Gav did call that back in October IIR


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

They sure have, my bro lives in NJ and it hasn't stopped. Good call Gav


Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

May not be great news for us though - zonality rules

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yep if GFS 06h Op cam eoff it would give a largely dry last week for Feburary.


Unfortnately ensembles show zonal is still in the majority.


192h 75:25


240h 70:30


312h 55:45


360h 55:45.


 

Saint Snow
14 February 2014 12:40:27


Well then - apart from the odd blip FI is starting to shape up a little better, with Dryer and colder weather potentially on the cards.


 


A dry Easterly would be very welcome to pretty much everyone.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Not really.


No snow on those charts



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Russwirral
14 February 2014 13:39:27



Well then - apart from the odd blip FI is starting to shape up a little better, with Dryer and colder weather potentially on the cards.


 


A dry Easterly would be very welcome to pretty much everyone.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Not really.


No snow on those charts


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


which is the reason i said dryer.... not snowier ;)


 


Gavin P
14 February 2014 16:35:28

Hi all,


Here's today's video update - Next on the block time:


The Worst Of Winter Storms May Almost Be Over


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Signs of improvements ahead, but will be a slow process to really settle things down.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Charmhills
14 February 2014 16:54:47


Hi all,


Here's today's video update - Next on the block time:


The Worst Of Winter Storms May Almost Be Over


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Signs of improvements ahead, but will be a slow process to really settle things down.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Cheers Gav.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Quantum
14 February 2014 17:14:56

LOL the 12Z has backtracked on the first low, which at 96h I assumed was a given;


if the models are struggling to resolve stuff at 96h then nothing is off the cards. Ironically the more agressive first low delayed the 2nd and nearly caused it to slide. 


Definately still all to play for. The jackpot is some <-25C uppers from russia. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
14 February 2014 17:16:38

BTW nordic snowman; tommorow is bet evaluation day :P


which means I have 5 more days to get a block before you win if we agree to continue. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin P
14 February 2014 17:37:34



Hi all,


Here's today's video update - Next on the block time:


The Worst Of Winter Storms May Almost Be Over


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Signs of improvements ahead, but will be a slow process to really settle things down.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Cheers Gav.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Thanks Duane.


Just to say GFS ensembles are updating again now;


 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


So no worries about my earlier queery.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
The Beast from the East
14 February 2014 18:26:33

Azores high ruins any chance of an easterly. If it keeps ridging up it could be the end of the wet spell though


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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