Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Thursday February 13th 2014 and pasted across from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show another powerful depression streaming towards Ireland tonight and tomorrow with the current quiet and showery conditions being replaced tomorrow by heavy rain and hill snow in the North and severe SW gales in the South later tomorrow as the rain turns more showery. Through tomorrow night very stormy and wet weather will cover many areas before the Low moves away slowly to the North with squally showers and gale force winds easing through the day. On Sunday a quieter day develops with sunshine and just scattered showers before Monday shows a weaker depression carrying more cloud and rain in from the West to begin next week.
GFS then shows generally changeable conditions with rain at times for the rest of the period with strong winds at times mostly from a direction between South and West. there will be some longer drier spells in between, especially in the South but nothing prolonged seems likely. Temperatures will be close to average overall.
UKMO tonight shows the middle of next week with a slack and unstable Westerly flow across the UK. It would unlikely be completely dry so with this setup showers would be expected at least but with light winds and less widespread rain this could be described as an improvement on recent times.
GEM shows a stronger Westerly flow on the Southern flank of Low pressure to the North. there would be showers or longer spells of rain falling as snow on the hills at times but with some drier intervals with shelter.
NAVGEM shows a similar setup to UKMO at Day 6 moving forward to bring more Low pressure down from the NW with bands of rain followed by showers in temperatures close to average.
ECM tonight shows a very changeable pattern with rain at times in breezy Westerly winds. Conditions overall though will be much improved on recent standards.
The ECM Mean Charts show a worrying trend to more Low pressure to the West of Ireland sucking up warm SW winds from the Azores area and no doubt leading to spells of heavy rain, once more heaviest towards the South and West.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles show show a bias towards keeping the UK under a Westerly flow, quite strong at times and with Low pressure remaining in proximity (though less intense than of late) there will continue to be rain and showers at times in temperatures close to average and maybe a little above in the South at times.
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow weakening somewhat next week and becoming more of a sine wave pattern which should give a rain then dry pattern of weather as each peak and trough passes west to east over the UK. It doesn't move far enough North through the period to push rain bearing systems far enough North to miss the UK.
In Summary tonight the charts for next week and beyond will at any other time be classed as poor with unsettled weather prevailing. As it is they actually suggest an improvement on recent times with less in the way of substantial rain and much less wind issues too. In fact it looks a very ordinary period coming up once we pass the other side of the up and coming storm with occasional rain with some drier and brighter interludes in a generally Westerly wind providing temperatures close to average.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY