theweatheroutlook

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nickl
15 February 2014 12:00:11

look to be setting up a mid atlantic trough which transfers slowly east. that would provide some respite for the se uk via a sceuro height rise though certainly not settled with rain moving more sw/ne at a more westerly longtitude than we've seen. thereafter, worrying signs on the extended ecm mean of another push of arctic air into the ne states which will provide some oomph for the northern arm and could place us back into the same pattern we're just drifting out of. 


all in all, less wet and windy for a while and perhaps a bit closer to changeable than unsettled. we might manage two dry days !  once we arrive in the final week of feb, i expect we could head back into totally unsettled again. with the groundwater levels so high, i doubt we will see too much relaxation with the issues in the thames valley and somerset levels.

Phil G
15 February 2014 12:03:45




GFS has a mild run of south westerlies with HP over Europe and near the south for the last week of Feb.


Encouraging springlike scenario with things in a more normal position.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Indeed, daytime temps well into double figures, would feel spring like in any sunshine. Bring it on


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 



I wish Joe, but sadly it is probably a less likely option up here at least
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn27617.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn30017.gif

The outlook to me just seems like more of the same just less extreme. There seems to be little sign of any prolonged settled conditions.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Agreed


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


I was thinking that, rain is still very much on the cards

Originally Posted by: four 



I fourth that. While the winds will abate which is great,TV weather presenters trying to offer an upbeat forecast but the ground is so saturated even small amounts of rain will have an effect and continue the misery for many.

JoeShmoe99
15 February 2014 12:13:51



The brief flirtation with the possibility of a 'dry high' snuffled again as the Atlantic continues to dominate probably into March.


Pitiful.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The writing was on the wall for this pathetic excuse of a winter back in December. However, I guess none of us thought it would be quite so stormy and wet for such a duration.


It has been one of those winters which makes you positively hate the British weather and want to emigrate. Then you can think of beautiful, summer afternoons when Britain appears to be the best place in the world. I guess we just have to take the rough (and the very rough) with the smooth.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


From a weather perspective it's been a remarkable winter, wettest for 300 years, deep storms , the PV in the US etc. Just because it hasnt been cold and snowy hasnt made it a pathetic excuse. The mind numbing winters of the 90's/00's were far worse. The weather has been national news for most of the last 2 months

Gooner
15 February 2014 12:16:41




The brief flirtation with the possibility of a 'dry high' snuffled again as the Atlantic continues to dominate probably into March.


Pitiful.


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


The writing was on the wall for this pathetic excuse of a winter back in December. However, I guess none of us thought it would be quite so stormy and wet for such a duration.


It has been one of those winters which makes you positively hate the British weather and want to emigrate. Then you can think of beautiful, summer afternoons when Britain appears to be the best place in the world. I guess we just have to take the rough (and the very rough) with the smooth.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


From a weather perspective it's been a remarkable winter, wettest for 300 years, deep storms , the PV in the US etc. Just because it hasnt been cold and snowy hasnt made it a pathetic excuse. The mind numbing winters of the 90's/00's were far worse. The weather has been national news for most of the last 2 months


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


That is a fair point , I do like extremes and this winter has given us that , not saying I have enjoyed it but seeing nature hit us at full force is certainly interesting

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


soperman
15 February 2014 14:01:29
On the BBC news update it states that the Met Office has said that cold weather is about to affect the whole of the UK? Can someone enlighten me? Last night on here it was widely held that the ENS were inaccurate due to computer. Probs. Perhaps the Met feel they need to prepare the population for that rare weather phenonomen........Air FrostšŸ’¤
soperman
15 February 2014 14:17:23
Sorry guys? I see the ice risk tonight now. Long term, no cold as progged.
Gooner
15 February 2014 16:38:22

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021512/UN120-21.GIF?15-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17


Unsettled from UKMO


Saw an ITN news report very misleading, saying " some good news, The Met Office say the jet stream is moving futher North , good news for the South but not so good for NW Scotand"


O/T apologies


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
15 February 2014 16:58:09

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn544.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1204.gif


I thnk most people in the street are getting the impression it will be a dry week.


followed by


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1264.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1324.gif


 


 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hungry Tiger
15 February 2014 17:27:08


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn544.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1204.gif


I thnk most people in the street are getting the impression it will be a dry week.


followed by


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1264.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1324.gif


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


The rain doesn't want to stop does it.


Indeed this has been mentioned a couple of times before. If this does turn out to be a better week - then I'd recommend don't get your hopes up too much yet.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


David M Porter
15 February 2014 17:46:54




The brief flirtation with the possibility of a 'dry high' snuffled again as the Atlantic continues to dominate probably into March.


Pitiful.


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


The writing was on the wall for this pathetic excuse of a winter back in December. However, I guess none of us thought it would be quite so stormy and wet for such a duration.


It has been one of those winters which makes you positively hate the British weather and want to emigrate. Then you can think of beautiful, summer afternoons when Britain appears to be the best place in the world. I guess we just have to take the rough (and the very rough) with the smooth.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


From a weather perspective it's been a remarkable winter, wettest for 300 years, deep storms , the PV in the US etc. Just because it hasnt been cold and snowy hasnt made it a pathetic excuse. The mind numbing winters of the 90's/00's were far worse. The weather has been national news for most of the last 2 months


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


O/T, but I think this season would be described more appropriately as a very rough extended autumn rathern than as a winter of any sort. At least it's seemed like that to me.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
15 February 2014 17:54:07
You can't deny it's been interesting from a weather point of view though. But lots of people here don't seem to be interested in any extremes other than cold or snow depth.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." ā€” Jerome K. Jerome
Charmhills
15 February 2014 18:05:28

You can't deny it's been interesting from a weather point of view though. But lots of people here don't seem to be interested in any extremes other than cold or snow depth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Indeed.


If some of the 12z is to be believe the Atlantic is far from done!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
The Beast from the East
15 February 2014 18:08:28

Signs of a pressure rise over Europe which may help keep the south dry and mild. Awful of course in terms of cold weather if we get a Bartlett


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
15 February 2014 18:28:50

You can't deny it's been interesting from a weather point of view though. But lots of people here don't seem to be interested in any extremes other than cold or snow depth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I have found it interesting...for sure, but as you know snow and all associated with it is god in my eyes


I like extremes and the recent spell fits with that description

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
15 February 2014 18:30:21

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021512/gfsnh-0-372.png?12


March starts on a familiar note if verified

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Essan
15 February 2014 19:27:53

You can't deny it's been interesting from a weather point of view though. But lots of people here don't seem to be interested in any extremes other than cold or snow depth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I've found it very interesting in terms of what must be approaching record snow depth 

Just annoyed I've not been able to get up to the Highlands to enjoy it!

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Medlock Vale Weather
15 February 2014 19:31:36

Horrible just horrible sums it up. Pretty much as you were since December. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
GIBBY
15 February 2014 19:32:50

You can't deny it's been interesting from a weather point of view though. But lots of people here don't seem to be interested in any extremes other than cold or snow depth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes and that being the case such people are not true weather fans and because they have such a narrow field of interest and living in the UK must hate the weather for 50 weeks out of 52.


Anyway, haven't finished compiling my report yet tonight but it does show some worrying trends, especially from UKMO later next week and latterly ECM.

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
15 February 2014 19:37:22

While searching for dry air, there are still some teasing easterlies to provide model watchers with light relief


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-6-0-360.png?12

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
15 February 2014 19:40:10

You can't deny it's been interesting from a weather point of view though. But lots of people here don't seem to be interested in any extremes other than cold or snow depth.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Indeed.


If some of the 12z is to be believe the Atlantic is far from done!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, just looked Duane and I was horrified- the back end of next week looks pretty tough going again. I don't know about you, but last night was the roughest period of winds IMBY this winter. We lost shed roofs, fence panels and the greenhouse imploded

Chiltern Blizzard
15 February 2014 19:55:13




The brief flirtation with the possibility of a 'dry high' snuffled again as the Atlantic continues to dominate probably into March.


Pitiful.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


The writing was on the wall for this pathetic excuse of a winter back in December. However, I guess none of us thought it would be quite so stormy and wet for such a duration.


It has been one of those winters which makes you positively hate the British weather and want to emigrate. Then you can think of beautiful, summer afternoons when Britain appears to be the best place in the world. I guess we just have to take the rough (and the very rough) with the smooth.


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


From a weather perspective it's been a remarkable winter, wettest for 300 years, deep storms , the PV in the US etc. Just because it hasnt been cold and snowy hasnt made it a pathetic excuse. The mind numbing winters of the 90's/00's were far worse. The weather has been national news for most of the last 2 months


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


O/T, but I think this season would be described more appropriately as a very rough extended autumn rathern than as a winter of any sort. At least it's seemed like that to me.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Understandable perspective, but winter storms (albeit not as powerful as we've seen recently) are more typically 'wintry' than snowfall, and arguably should be incorporated in KB's winter index, which currenly is at an all-time low, well below even 1988/89 which was far less 'wintry' imo.

Andrew
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
roger63
15 February 2014 20:29:35


You can't deny it's been interesting from a weather point of view though. But lots of people here don't seem to be interested in any extremes other than cold or snow depth.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I have found it interesting...for sure, but as you know snow and all associated with it is god in my eyes


I like extremes and the recent spell fits with that description


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I'm with you Gooner.Snow is the most fascinating and beautiful manifestation of extremes.I too though have found the spell of wind and rain good model watching.I can think of many dreary average winters where nothing notable occurred.


Intersting to see that although all the 12h ops show Atlantic dominance GEFS still comes up with a minority of cold runs eg at 192h 4,6,7,10,12,20.


However I really think winter is over.I dont count March-meteorologically DJF is winter and anyhow any March snow soon goes.Last  March was very much an  exception.

Osprey
15 February 2014 20:39:13





The brief flirtation with the possibility of a 'dry high' snuffled again as the Atlantic continues to dominate probably into March.


Pitiful.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


The writing was on the wall for this pathetic excuse of a winter back in December. However, I guess none of us thought it would be quite so stormy and wet for such a duration.


It has been one of those winters which makes you positively hate the British weather and want to emigrate. Then you can think of beautiful, summer afternoons when Britain appears to be the best place in the world. I guess we just have to take the rough (and the very rough) with the smooth.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


From a weather perspective it's been a remarkable winter, wettest for 300 years, deep storms , the PV in the US etc. Just because it hasnt been cold and snowy hasnt made it a pathetic excuse. The mind numbing winters of the 90's/00's were far worse. The weather has been national news for most of the last 2 months


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


O/T, but I think this season would be described more appropriately as a very rough extended autumn rathern than as a winter of any sort. At least it's seemed like that to me.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 



Understandable perspective, but winter storms (albeit not as powerful as we've seen recently) are more typically 'wintry' than snowfall, and arguably should be incorporated in KB's winter index, which currenly is at an all-time low, well below even 1988/89 which was far less 'wintry' imo.

Andrew

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


This is a typical winter "except" more rain and storms than usual (Much more)


To have a frost or snow imo is just a bonus


It's the exciting part of a UK winter


Being asked "Do you think we'll have snow this winter" to "Will it snow today?"


Sniffing the cold air and saying "I smell snow"


 


Lampost light watching for that elusive snow flake the weatherman promised


The phone call to another friend or family "It's started to snow here is it snowing with you?"


Snow and Frost is as rare as rocking horse sh1t (well at least South of Birmingham)


Right now I just want it to dry up and warm up


 

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Gooner
15 February 2014 20:47:20






The brief flirtation with the possibility of a 'dry high' snuffled again as the Atlantic continues to dominate probably into March.


Pitiful.


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


The writing was on the wall for this pathetic excuse of a winter back in December. However, I guess none of us thought it would be quite so stormy and wet for such a duration.


It has been one of those winters which makes you positively hate the British weather and want to emigrate. Then you can think of beautiful, summer afternoons when Britain appears to be the best place in the world. I guess we just have to take the rough (and the very rough) with the smooth.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


From a weather perspective it's been a remarkable winter, wettest for 300 years, deep storms , the PV in the US etc. Just because it hasnt been cold and snowy hasnt made it a pathetic excuse. The mind numbing winters of the 90's/00's were far worse. The weather has been national news for most of the last 2 months


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


O/T, but I think this season would be described more appropriately as a very rough extended autumn rathern than as a winter of any sort. At least it's seemed like that to me.


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 



Understandable perspective, but winter storms (albeit not as powerful as we've seen recently) are more typically 'wintry' than snowfall, and arguably should be incorporated in KB's winter index, which currenly is at an all-time low, well below even 1988/89 which was far less 'wintry' imo.

Andrew

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


This is a typical winter "except" more rain and storms than usual (Much more)


To have a frost or snow imo is just a bonus


It's the exciting part of a UK winter


Being asked "Do you think we'll have snow this winter" to "Will it snow today?"


Sniffing the cold air and saying "I smell snow"


 


Lampost light watching for that elusive snow flake the weatherman promised


The phone call to another friend or family "It's started to snow here is it snowing with you?"


Snow and Frost is as rare as rocking horse sh1t (well at least South of Birmingham)


Right now I just want it to dry up and warm up


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I think you will have a bit of a wait

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


pnepaul
15 February 2014 20:51:00

You can't deny it's been interesting from a weather point of view though. But lots of people here don't seem to be interested in any extremes other than cold or snow depth.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


A bit off topic I know but Just for the record. Last Sat barometer for me  was 958mb, Wednesday 956mb, Last night 957mb!! If that is not intersting or unusual then what is?

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