Same old "copy & paste" outlook then- rain , rain and more rain.

Usual rules.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-300.png?12

GFS control

Winter to start in Spring again?

GEM also has potential

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021812/ECH1-240.GIF?18-0

And at last here we are on the verge of  our long awaited Easterly

+300h GFS control charts for march, its been a truly terrible winter hasn't it 

Shame there's no cold to tap into....  2014/15 for anything properly "wintry" now I think.

Unsettled with rain, though compared to what we've experienced looks pretty tame, though perhaps enough to ensure that the threat of flooding doesn't go away.

Andrew

Good evening. Here is tonight's attempt to review the latest outputs of the NWP from their midday runs and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show one more day of relatively quiet weather with dry and bright conditions with light winds for many too as a weak Westerly flow gradually backs SW tomorrow. Over Wednesday night and Thursday cloud, wind and rain sweeps across from the SW with clearer and showery conditions following thereafter through the latter half of Thursday, Friday and the first half of Saturday with some heavy showers, especially in the West. Later on Saturday the showers die away as another weak ridge crosses East over the UK. Then later on Sunday strong SW winds and rain reaches the North and West spreading steadily SE to many areas by evening.

GFS then shows next week and the remainder of it's run with very changeable and unsettled weather with spells of rain alternating with sunshine and showers. The heaviest rains would be over the North and West with the longest drier spells likely in the South and East. Temperatures would be largely close to average or slightly below in the North at times and slightly above over the South while winds could be strong almost anywhere at times.

UKMO tonight shows a very unsettled start to next week with strong SW winds and spells of rain across the UK in temperatures close to average, all in association with deep Low pressure close to the NW of Britain.

GEM tonight also shows an unsettled start to next week with mild SW winds and rain at times. Late in the week it may turn somewhat colder as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK with slacker winds but further rain at times and still some snow over Northern mountains.

NAVGEM also shows a wet and windy start to next week in association with the same pattern of Low pressure close to NW Britain and strong but relatively mild SW winds.

ECM also shows a wet and windy if mild start to next week with strong Southerly winds bringing a band of heavy rain East across the UK followed by squally WSW winds and showers. Later in the run Low pressure takes a more Southerly track down over the UK suggesting a possible pattern shift though in the short term Southern areas in particular will stay unsettled with rain at times and as it becomes colder some wintry precipitation could develop over the higher ground while the NW becomes dry under rising pressure.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts do not support the operational, even more so as you consider how much more it would of offset the mean charts had it more support from other members too. As it is one can assume that the majority of members continue to support a theme of changeable and unsettled weather with rain and showers at times under Low pressure close to or over Northern Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles tonight continue to show largely unsettled weather with rain at times in temperatures largely close to average. rainfall amounts are shown tor educe by the end of the output range.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

The Jet Stream shows the weakening of the flow over the coming days before it re-strengthens next week, at least for a time. It's position remains in close proximity of the UK in it's oscillating fashion.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary tonight while there appears to be little overall change to the current pattern with rain and strong winds continuing to feature for quite a while, yet there are again signs of change later in the outputs. The split longer term solutions between GFS and ECM are all too apparent with GFS wanting pressure to rise towards the SE while ECM pulls Low pressure down over the UK and away to the South allowing pressure rises to the West and NW, a trend hinted at by GEM too. It's all too early to say if either solution is a feasible one at the range shown but it at least shows the models are sniffing the chance of something of a change in a couple of weeks with other greater and lesser options likely to be shown in the coming days under a less strong Jet flow.

Hard to tell how all this will turn out. What a winter this one has turned out to be.

Thanks Martin for the latest update.

Well down here this winter  has been marked out by its lack of winteriness – Definitely” forever autumn” this year.  I can count the air frosts we've had on a single hand and I've yet to see a single flake of snow!

At least the rhubarb likes it - I should think the first crumble  will be in about a fortnight - earliest ever !

Without intending to go ot Chris - same story for me.

I've had 3 air frosts and lowest minimum just -2C.

In years to come people will be saying 'Yes it's mild and wet so far, I wonder if we'll have another Jeff Wayne?'

I don't get it. 

Winter arrives - in Spring 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021818/gfs-1-312.png?18

Jeff Wayne. Composer of the album "War of the Worlds" which featured the song "Forever Autumn"

Ohh, too good

Although the winter has been bad generally, it has been a different world above about 500m. Been hill walking alot this winter, and always seen snow and blizzards with a bit of altitude. 

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight reports from the NWP for today Wednesday February 19th 2014 and featured morning and evening's on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a Westerly flow backing SW through the day and strengthening with a Low pressure system crossing the Atlantic towards the NW of Scotland and pushing troughs East across the UK with a spell of rain and drizzle for many by tonight and the start of tomorrow. Quite quickly bright and windy weather is shown to follow with showers, heavy and wintry over the North and West but with some drier spells across the East at times, this pattern then sustained until later on Saturday when showers die out and the weather becomes fine for a time Saturday night and Sunday. Through Sunday winds back SW and strengthen with gales in the NW and rain too later while Southern and eastern parts though windy and mild will stay largely dry.

GFS then shows next week as windy and changeable with spells of rain and showers at times with the trend towards more settled weather by the end of next week and the end of the period as High pressure finally settles things down over the UK with sunny and bright days with fog and frost issues at night.

UKMO shows a deep Low off Western Scotland with a strong Westerly flow over the UK carrying rain and showers across the UK, heaviest in the West.

GEM also shows a strong Westerly flow towards the early and middle part of next week gradually transferring into a colder spell as winds swing NW and perhaps North by the end of next week with the prospect of further outbreaks of rain and perhaps wintry showers in places due to Low pressure over Denmark.

NAVGEM closes it's run with a complex Low pressure system to the North and West of the UK with a cyclonic SW flow across britain. Troughs swinging NE in the flow will deliver rain, heavy at times in temperatures close to average.

ECM shows unsettled weather prevailing overall with Low pressure either to the NW or over the UK later as Low pressure then disrupts over the British Isles with rain at times for all areas in average temperatures but possibly becoming somewhat chillier later.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still show a bias towards a UK trough in 9 and 10 Days time with a Low centre likely to become somewhere close to the North of the UK. So rain at times is the likely scenario still under a Westerly flow. It should be noted that pressure is higher than has been for a long time to the North of the UK so the operational solution is not without foundation.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles shows unsettled weather prevailing throughout the period as Low pressure remains in control. Temperatures remain close to average overall and there are signs of drier weather very late in the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

The Jet Stream shows a weaker flow than for some time coming up soon before the flow strengthens again later, never releasing it's grip entirely on spawning Low pressure areas up to the NW with further rain at times. It does show a dip sharply SE to the SW of the UK late in the run indicative perhaps of pressure rising to the North and NE later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary today the weather looks like staying unsettled for the reliable future. All areas will see rain at times, heavy in places and accompanied by strong winds too, though a return to the very stormy conditions of recently remains unlikely thankfully. Later in the output there are still signs of a possible pattern change as Low pressure is hinted at disrupting and sliding SE across the UK allowing pressure to build to the North. What this means longer term for the UK and the weather in general remains to see how the output handles this possible pattern shift over the coming days or whether it dissolves it into yet another false dawn and reverts to Atlantic dominated form.

Thanks Martin - a lone voice in the wilderness!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Still a tentative sign of a pattern change towards the end of Feb but alas too late for many to save it from being a rare totally snow free winter.

Hi Neil

So rare, but do you know where I can get some reliable stats to find out the last snowless winter for a particular region.  This is the first time I can remember not seeing a single snowflake over the Chilterns.  Not sure if the Cotswolds got any this year - I know that Dartmoor had a covering in January.

Despite troughs continuing to advance on us, the models are managing to give high pressure enough influence to prevent extreme rainfall totals across the south, while for the most part avoiding the dreaded stalled front scenario.

Sunday could be an exception in that it does look to have stalled front potential, but it's unlcear as although GFS fizzles the precipitation out before a stall across the UK, ECM is slightly more progressive, with the chance of some rain reaching us, while UKMO and GEM are much more progressive and would bring a notable spell of rain but without the front stalling so much.

Longer term, there is a consistent signal for the renewed cold plunge into the U.S. to interact with tropical energy and produce an explosive storm development along the East Coast.

For us, that means amplification of the pattern across the Atlantic, which looks like resulting in the Azores High developing N/NE while a cut-off trough may drift across the UK. ECM is faster with this than GFS and GEM.

Ideally for drying out, that high would then sink slowly down across the UK, and then be bolstered by further amplification upstream, producing a persistent cell that sticks around for a few weeks at least... GFS does show this later on on the 00z op run, but something tells me it would be more inclined to head to higher latitudes 

Woth mentioning that there is still room for concern next week, as we're currently seeing the models come up with fairly tame storm development despite a strong jet being modelled, and those two don't quite fit together...

Same story here - not seen a single snowflake all winter. Incredible.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021900/gemnh-0-210.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021900/gemnh-0-222.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021900/gemnh-0-240.png?00

GEM gives us something colder

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021906/gfsnh-0-240.png?6

GFS not that far from the GEM set up

Next week looks very wet, but the week after looks like high pressure will have more of an influence, so light at the end of the tunnel in terms of flooding