Good evening. Here is tonight's attempt to review the latest outputs of the NWP from their midday runs and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show one more day of relatively quiet weather with dry and bright conditions with light winds for many too as a weak Westerly flow gradually backs SW tomorrow. Over Wednesday night and Thursday cloud, wind and rain sweeps across from the SW with clearer and showery conditions following thereafter through the latter half of Thursday, Friday and the first half of Saturday with some heavy showers, especially in the West. Later on Saturday the showers die away as another weak ridge crosses East over the UK. Then later on Sunday strong SW winds and rain reaches the North and West spreading steadily SE to many areas by evening.
GFS then shows next week and the remainder of it's run with very changeable and unsettled weather with spells of rain alternating with sunshine and showers. The heaviest rains would be over the North and West with the longest drier spells likely in the South and East. Temperatures would be largely close to average or slightly below in the North at times and slightly above over the South while winds could be strong almost anywhere at times.
UKMO tonight shows a very unsettled start to next week with strong SW winds and spells of rain across the UK in temperatures close to average, all in association with deep Low pressure close to the NW of Britain.
GEM tonight also shows an unsettled start to next week with mild SW winds and rain at times. Late in the week it may turn somewhat colder as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK with slacker winds but further rain at times and still some snow over Northern mountains.
NAVGEM also shows a wet and windy start to next week in association with the same pattern of Low pressure close to NW Britain and strong but relatively mild SW winds.
ECM also shows a wet and windy if mild start to next week with strong Southerly winds bringing a band of heavy rain East across the UK followed by squally WSW winds and showers. Later in the run Low pressure takes a more Southerly track down over the UK suggesting a possible pattern shift though in the short term Southern areas in particular will stay unsettled with rain at times and as it becomes colder some wintry precipitation could develop over the higher ground while the NW becomes dry under rising pressure.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts do not support the operational, even more so as you consider how much more it would of offset the mean charts had it more support from other members too. As it is one can assume that the majority of members continue to support a theme of changeable and unsettled weather with rain and showers at times under Low pressure close to or over Northern Britain.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles tonight continue to show largely unsettled weather with rain at times in temperatures largely close to average. rainfall amounts are shown tor educe by the end of the output range.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
The Jet Stream shows the weakening of the flow over the coming days before it re-strengthens next week, at least for a time. It's position remains in close proximity of the UK in it's oscillating fashion.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary tonight while there appears to be little overall change to the current pattern with rain and strong winds continuing to feature for quite a while, yet there are again signs of change later in the outputs. The split longer term solutions between GFS and ECM are all too apparent with GFS wanting pressure to rise towards the SE while ECM pulls Low pressure down over the UK and away to the South allowing pressure rises to the West and NW, a trend hinted at by GEM too. It's all too early to say if either solution is a feasible one at the range shown but it at least shows the models are sniffing the chance of something of a change in a couple of weeks with other greater and lesser options likely to be shown in the coming days under a less strong Jet flow.
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger