Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Thursday February 20th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a cold front crossing West to east over the UK this morning with a spell of mostly light rain quickly followed by brighter weather with squally showers becoming heavy in places and wintry over Northern hills. This pattern then lasts through tomorrow too before things dry out for Saturday as winds back SW and strengthen carrying milder air NE across the UK but with rain, heavy at times to the NW later. On Sunday a very windy and mild day seems likely with a front moving slowly SE extending the rain in the NW further SE to most areas by the end of the day, still heavy in places. The start of next week then indicates a vigorous WSW flow with further Low pressure disturbances bringing spells of rain and showers over the first days of the working week.
GFS then shows that from midweek the weather remains very unsettled and often windy with further spells of rain and showers as Low pressure areas continue to track in from the Atlantic. It then shows a colder snap as a brief Northerly flow interrupts the wet and windy weather with wintry showers before after a few days it becomes unsettled and Atlantic based weather again with less cold air and rain at times to end the run.
UKMO closes it's run with a bank of Low pressure across the Atlantic from a position NW of Britain continuing a broad WSW flow with fronts delivering rain and showers at times in average temperatures.
GEM too shows an unsettled and windy period at the end of next week with it too showing a brief colder snap towards the end of it's run when wintry showers and frost at night could replace the wind and rain for a time.
NAVGEM keeps the WSW flow going towards the end of next week with Low pressure to the NW. Further rain at times seem likely with temperatures close to average.
ECM shows a vigorous Low pressure area meandering East across Southern Britain through the end of next week with much more unwanted rain as a result. It too as with other output introduces a colder North flow for a time and looks like at the end of it's run it is setting itself up for a period of colder zonality with Low pressure coming down from the NW with more rain and wintry showers in brisk winds and lower temperatures.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows that the colder zonality indicated by the operational is giving some credence as it too shows a Low pressure to the NW with a broad trough down over the UK to Europe with rain at times and less mild conditions overall.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of non-descript output with average conditions overall made up from a mix of solutions none of which show anything remarkably cold or mild but some with more rain than others in an overall Atlantic patterned bias.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
The Jet Stream continues to show signs of strengthening again next week as well as move a little further South once more before at the end of the run the flow drifts North in a more meaningful way with the consequences of such we await to see.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary the pattern remains a very unsettled one with all models showing a good week or so of more Atlantic depressions and fronts, some rather potent with a lot of rain and strong winds for all a possibility for all. The changes indicated in previous output runs is a little muted this morning and it trends more towards a cold zonal spell of weather with chillier NW winds and showers on SE moving depressions possible from late next week. It should be noted that should this verify this will not necessarily mean drier weather across the UK but it could mean the incidence of snow on hills increases markedly, especially towards the North.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset