True - you can usually fortell how a Run has gone by how many pages have whizzed by since you last visited the forum.  On the odd occassion that has been the case this year - is usually been down to some sort of moan or general acknowledgement that its all been a bit poo.

I just look to see if Son of Codge has posted - if he has, definitely no freeze up on the cards

I take it you're not yet realised that we our a Maritime climate than...

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140219/12/216/h850t850eu.png

Starting to look interesting around this point in time.

Otherwise - same ol same ol

Think we've been telling that tale often for the past month or so 

True, im waiting for another Bullseye low to appear out of nowhere.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021912/gfsnh-0-192.png?12

from this point it looks like flooded re-visited

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014021912/gem-0-240.png?12

Here we are , a straw to clutch

No thanks, that's March. I want *spring* :)

Oh joy....  a different direction of grey. 

What we get and what we want are two different things when it comes to our weather.

Yes, this winter in itself has been proof enough of that!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021912/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

similar to GFS

Good evening. Here is the latest report using the midday data from the NWP for today Wednesday February 19th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models continue to show a generally unsettled and windy picture and whilst the weather will be less severe than anything we have seen of late there will still be some unwelcome rainfall for flood stricken areas over the next 4-5 days with sunshine and showers in between a band of rain tomorrow and again later on Sunday.

GFS then shows next week as continuing unsettled and windy with further rain at times, some heavy and persistent and with the chance of severe gales for a time. Temperatures will often be fairly mild but rather colder at times too with some wintry showers falling on the hills of the North at times.

UKMO shows Low pressure to the North of the UK and a strong Westerly flow delivering rain, showers and strong winds to all of the UK at times in average temperatures.

GEM also shows very unsettled weather with strong winds and heavy rain at times as deep Low pressure areas continue to dominate the UK weather, positioned close to Northern Scotland at first while later in the run Low pressure slips South with colder conditions with further rain at times and snow on hills.

NAVGEM is also very unsettled looking with deep Low pressure crossing the UK with rain at times, some of which will be heavy and persistent with sunshine and showers in between with temperatures close to average.

ECM tonight shows an unsettled period too but still likes to pull Low pressure away South later in the run allowing less wet and colder conditions to affect the UK later in the run as pressure rises under a ridge over the UK pushing the Jet flow North over the Atlantic.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate a UK trough at the end of the period with gently rising pressure. It doesn't however endorse the operational view of the strongly risen pressure over the UK intead keeping pressure quite low with a further surge of Low pressure looking likely from the NW in the days to follow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles continue to show average temperatures most likely for the next two weeks with a reduction in rain amounts likely by the end of the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

The Jet Stream shows the flow stronger next week powering up some more powerful depressions again next week before late in the run the flow is shown to pull well North all the way to Iceland at the end of the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary there is still a lot of unsettled weather to come before any chance of better conditions arrives. Being that such improvements are all at arms length still there is a lot of wet and windy weather to come with Low pressure in total control to the North. Improvements when they do arrive are likely to come from an extension of the Azores High which could be accompanied by a pressure rise to the North too which if occurs could give an end at last to the procession of Atlantic Lows that has afflicted the UK now for nearly 3 months and bring some welcome relief to the UK. On the other hand being as it is so far out in the future currently it could all amount to nothing and we continue with the status quo.

With sub-zero 850s for most the period, the western highlands look like getting a massive extra dumping of snow over the next week or so.... many, many feet of snow in favoured parts!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/192h.htm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022000/ECH1-120.GIF?20-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022000/ECH1-192.GIF?20-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022000/ECH1-240.GIF?20-12

As Chilt says ECM unsettled all the way

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Thursday February 20th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a cold front crossing West to east over the UK this morning with a spell of mostly light rain quickly followed by brighter weather with squally showers becoming heavy in places and wintry over Northern hills. This pattern then lasts through tomorrow too before things dry out for Saturday as winds back SW and strengthen carrying milder air NE across the UK but with rain, heavy at times to the NW later. On Sunday a very windy and mild day seems likely with a front moving slowly SE extending the rain in the NW further SE to most areas by the end of the day, still heavy in places. The start of next week then indicates a vigorous WSW flow with further Low pressure disturbances bringing spells of rain and showers over the first days of the working week.

GFS then shows that from midweek the weather remains very unsettled and often windy with further spells of rain and showers as Low pressure areas continue to track in from the Atlantic.  It then shows a colder snap as a brief Northerly flow interrupts the wet and windy weather with wintry showers before after a few days it becomes unsettled and Atlantic based weather again with less cold air and rain at times to end the run.

UKMO closes it's run with a bank of Low pressure across the Atlantic from a position NW of Britain continuing a broad WSW flow with fronts delivering rain and showers at times in average temperatures.

GEM too shows an unsettled and windy period at the end of next week with it too showing a brief colder snap towards the end of it's run when wintry showers and frost at night could replace the wind and rain for a time.

NAVGEM keeps the WSW flow going towards the end of next week with Low pressure to the NW. Further rain at times seem likely with temperatures close to average.

ECM shows a vigorous Low pressure area meandering East across Southern Britain through the end of next week with much more unwanted rain as a result. It too as with other output introduces a colder North flow for a time and looks like at the end of it's run it is setting itself up for a period of colder zonality with Low pressure coming down from the NW with more rain and wintry showers in brisk winds and lower temperatures.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows that the colder zonality indicated by the operational is giving some credence as it too shows a Low pressure to the NW with a broad trough down over the UK to Europe with rain at times and less mild conditions overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of non-descript output with average conditions overall made up from a mix of solutions none of which show anything remarkably cold or mild but some with more rain than others in an overall Atlantic patterned bias.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

The Jet Stream continues to show signs of strengthening again next week as well as move a little further South once more before at the end of the run the flow drifts North in a more meaningful way with the consequences of such we await to see.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary the pattern remains a very unsettled one with all models showing a good week or so of more Atlantic depressions and fronts, some rather potent with a lot of rain and strong winds for all a possibility for all. The changes indicated in previous output runs is a little muted this morning and it trends more towards a cold zonal spell of weather with chillier NW winds and showers on SE moving depressions possible from late next week. It should be noted that should this verify this will not necessarily mean drier weather across the UK but it could mean the incidence of snow on hills increases markedly, especially towards the North.

After a dryer week this week, next week does at this stage looks much wetter for most and somewhat colder with time to.

At least river levels have fallen this week for the Severn and the Thames and some other rivers.

Unsettled all the way I'm afraid to say

Cold zonality will do for me at 900ft in The Cairngorms 

Yep - be good to experience that in the new home

Pics to follow hopefully Dave