Good evening everyone. Here is today's evening report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 20th 2014.
All models show that the UK lies under a showery Westerly flow in association with Low pressure to the North. This lasts through until Saturday when winds back SW and increase, bringing milder air across the UK. Heavy rain from advancing fronts will reach the NW later on Saturday with the strong winds increasing further across England and Wales on Sunday as the band of rain in the NW sinks SE across many areas by the end of the day. On Monday the weather will remain very unsettled according to most models with further windy and showery conditions likely and possibly some longer spells of rain too..
GFS then shows next week as wet and windy as further Low pressure crosses West to East over the UK with unwelcome heavy rain for many with showers in between and only short brighter intervals. In the lower resolution half of the run there is more unsettled weather to be endured but with a trend to drier conditions later as High pressure builds up close to Southern Britain later, possibly bringing rather mild weather too.
UKMO also shows an unsettled beginning to next week as one Low crosses the UK on Tuesday, exiting East on Wednesday with the likelihood of further troughs later in the week to bring at least some more rain late in the week too.
GEM shows Low pressure in control too through much of next week. In the first half mild SW winds will accompany the spells of rain but later as Low pressure moves out to the East of the UK there could be a period of colder weather with wintry showers in places on a Northerly breeze.
NAVGEM remains very unsettled looking next week with the close of it's run indicating Westerly winds continuing well into the end of next week with rain at times in a fresh and blustery west or SW wind and generally near average temperatures.
ECM tonight shows unsettled weather too with Low pressure giving rise to more appreciable rain at times and showers at other. As the axis of Low pressure shifts towards the east of the UK colder air will seep down across the UK in a NW flow with showers turning wintry later with snow over the hills for a time.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts suggest a period of cold zonality with Low pressure to the NW extending a trough SE across Britain and down over Europe. With winds in the West and NW with rain at times and temperatures close o average or a little below.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles show uppers very close to the long term mean throughout tonight's output with a wide spread between the members of the pack towards the end of the run. Rainfall amounts are shown to be somewhat less than of late in the SE but remains a popular commodity throughout the run but with drier prospects shown for all at times through the run.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
The Jet Stream remains fairly strong throughout the period spawning more Low pressure areas crossing over or near the UK. Late in the run the shift of the flow NE over Northern Britain could bring some drier conditions to the South and SE later.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary it is in all senses of the word a re-run of this morning's output with any improvements shown restricted way out in the unreliable time spans of the model runs and that looking very tentative and speculative. In the meantime there will be plenty more wind and rain for us all to endure in temperatures close to average overall and winds quite strong at times without ever being especially so.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset