Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Friday February 21st 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show the current showery Westerly flow giving way over the next 24 hours to a stronger but milder SW flow and fronts moving into NW Britain through tomorrow. This then moves SE through tomorrow and Sunday with some quite large rainfall amounts over the hills of the North and West and later in the South and East late Sunday and into Monday. Then under a complex Low pressure system setting up over Northern Britain before midweek the weather will remain very unsettled and often wet and windy with SW gales accompanying persistent rain and more westerly gales with showers following on behind.
GFS then ends the week on a colder note as deep Low pressure edges to the East of the UK with a cold wrap around of Northerly winds affecting the UK with wintry showers up and down the UK and before a drier day or two when frosts could occur as a ridge of High pressure crosses East. The rest of the run sees the weather remain changeable with further Atlantic fronts and Low pressure's with attendant rain and wind alternating with brighter showery conditions and also the occasional colder interlude under a ridge of High pressure.
UKMO tonight ends the run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with an unstable Westerly flow with further showery rain at times and temperatures close to the seasonal average.
GEM also shows very changeable conditions prevailing with rain or showers at times with some short colder interludes with wintry showers or dry weather with some night frosts. No sustained periods of dry weather look likely with the likelihood of further Low pressure and attendant rain never far behind.
NAVGEM keeps a lot of unsettled weather going over the UK later next week with rain and showers turning wintry with time as winds turn NW towards next weekend.
ECM shows a change to colder weather towards next weekend following an unsettled and windy, showery week as Low pressure slips away towards the East and turns winds into the North for a while with wintry showers. Then later still the weather settles down briefly as a ridge tumbles down over the UK with Westerly winds returning behind it.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure out to the NW with a link to Low pressure over Europe. As this morning there are some members which show a tenuous link of the Azores high to one over Eastern Europe while the likelihood for the UK is still rather unsettled weather with rain at times in a trough somewhere near the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles tonight show very changeable conditions persisting for virtually the entire run with rain and showers at times in fairly average temperatures. Late in the run a pattern change to something more settled under High pressure seems possible with rather lower temperatures and frosts at night as a result.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
The Jet Stream reflects the ensemble data by transferring the Jet flow high over the Atlantic and Iceland late in week 2 allowing a strong ridge of High pressure to build across the UK at last. Until then it's position remains constant down to the South of the UK with several more depressions bringing copious rain and showers from UK based Low pressure through next week.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary the weather still shows some signs of change towards the end of next week and weekend. Whether it is a notable weather change or just a temporary phase remains to be seen and there is some evidence even at this range that the Atlantic will prove to strong. In the mean time it's business as usual for the next week or so with rain and showers for all in blustery winds before the aforementioned change could result in something rather drier and colder with frost at night.
Edited by user
21 February 2014 20:52:09
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset