Post of the year Kev.

Never has an Azores High in March been more welcomed. 

Best post on here for ages and in the light of what we've been having totally justified as well.

If that chart comes off I reckon it would be the first prolonged, warm and dry spell for many for something like 4 months .

Latest GFS is showing some very nice charts for March. Its all a question though if they come off.

Brilliant

The best thing is the way the gif freezes in the subsequent quotes at different positions.
Candidate for post of the year IMO.

After all the rain this winter that has caused so many awful flooding problems, it's hard to think it was only this time two years ago that some of the areas currently affected by flooding, name SE England were desperate for rain, after two very dry winters. Then came all the wet weather of 2012, and then this current winter. It's incredible how things have changed really.

Back on topic: Let's all hope and pray the GFS is ultimately proved to be correct with its hints of High pressure bercoming more influential as we go further into March. The last thing we need is a bad spring now.

Im not talking about a 3 month forecast I am on about the 30 day update which was always pretty reliable, they hinted at much colder weather but only hinted, I think they did ok

ECM looking increasingly settled from a week's time onwards

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022300/ECM1-216.GIF?23-12

Could be the end for the rain after this week. In fact it could get very warm and springlike

Good morning. Here is my Sunday review of the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Sunday February 23rd 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.

All models show a mild and broad SW flow across the UK with Low pressure to the NW. A trough lying SW to NE across NW areas is shown to slip SE through today and accelerate away East overnight to leave a Westerly flow briefly tomorrow before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after rain in the NW this morning makes it's way across the UK today and tonight a showery interlude follows tomorrow before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tomorrow night and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures.

GFS then shows a new Low cross into the UK later in the week and take a turn SE across the near Continent next weekend. This ushers in colder weather following a wet end to the working week. Showers will be wintry in the North and East before a ridge moves across from the west or NW damping down any showers and leading to a cold and frosty period next Sunday. Thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure never far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0

The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions today with Low pressure trending to come down from the NW in Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO closes today with next Saturday being a breezy and cold day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over NW Germany. The weather will be generally showery with wintry showers over all high ground, dying out from the West later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021

GEM also introduces colder weather from the weekend. A wet end to the working week under Low pressure is replaced by North or NW winds and wintry showers over the weekend. Then further rather cold and unsettled weather with some snow in places occurs to start next week as another Low pressure slides SE across the UK and away to the SE by midweek.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

The GEM Ensembles though changeable do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found from next weekend on as High pressure is in much closer attendance at times, especially over the South. Some rain events are shown, chiefly in the North and while temperatures shouldn't get too low some frosty nights are likely at times.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

NAVGEM today ends it's run with a slack and unstable North backing West flow next weekend with wintry showers in places before more places become dry by the start of the new week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

ECM shows a cold and unsettled weekend with wintry showers especially towards the East and SE before things settle down early next week as a strong ridge builds NE over the South from the Azores with bright sunny days and frosty night. By the end of the run the North has become cloudier and milder under a slowly freshening SW flow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts do show some support for the operational again this morning, albeit in a more diluted form. In general it points towards a trend for Low pressure to be held well to the NW with a much closer Azores High towards the UK than has been shown for a very long time. The net result would most likely be for any rain to cease across the South with most if not all restricted towards the Northwest. With winds shown to have a maritime influence but much less strong than of late there will likely be a lot of cloud floating about with temperatures returning to close to average values by the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream Ensemble group still point towards the flow elevating to a more northern latitude across the Atlantic through week 2 supporting the better conditions possible for the UK after this week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary this morning it still looks strongly likely that there may be something a little more hopeful in the weather once we have got through what will be another unsettled, windy and often wet week to come. Over next weekend we will likely see a transition period involving a spell of colder NW or North winds with some wintry showers as Low pressure slides away SE over Europe. With the Jet Stream buckling strongly North over the Atlantic at that point pressure will rise strongly towards Southern Britain and while the North may see this as a rather transitory pause in the unsettled Atlantic regime Southern areas may hold on to it rather longer giving flood stricken areas much relief with several days if not longer of fine and benign weather with temperatures never desperately low much with an increased risk of night frosts which we haven't seen for so long.

^^^^^^^^^^Spot on Nick, they were more than good on the 30 dayer^^^^^^^^^^^

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Looks an average start to March

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.gif

1st day of March looks chilier than of late

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif

Followed by an overnight frost

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1744.gif

Fairly dry at least

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.gif

Looks like a ridge trys to push in on the first working week of the month

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2044.gif

ppn still across and around the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2524.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3004.gif

Looks like typical March weather

Nice chart there - lest hope this lot comes off as this chart ties in roughly with GFS.

Indeed Michael , March type weather, its funny how the backing for ECM picks up again once it shows 'warm' weather, let's nit forget it hasn't had a good winter

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

GFS gives us an ordinary outlook

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022212/UN120-21.GIF?22-18

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022212/UN144-21.GIF?22-18

A unsettled coolish run from UKMO

Another run another outcome, we shouldn't be surprised

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022312/ECH1-120.GIF?23-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022312/ECH1-144.GIF?23-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022312/ECH1-216.GIF?23-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022312/ECH1-240.GIF?23-0

I think one thing we have learned if that you need more that SW to get us some bocking

Good evening. Here is my Sunday review of the midday outputs issued by the NWP for today Sunday February 23rd 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.

All models show a mild and broad SW flow across the UK with Low pressure to the NW. A trough lying SW to NE across NW areas is shown to slip SE through tonight and accelerate away East tomorrow morning to leave a Westerly flow briefly tomorrow before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after rain in the NW tonight makes it's way across the UK slowly a showery interlude follows tomorrow before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tomorrow night and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures.

GFS then shows a new Low cross into the UK later in the week and take a turn SE across the near Continent next weekend. This ushers in colder weather following a wet end to the working week. Showers will be wintry in the North and East before a ridge moves across from the west or NW damping down any showers and leading to a cold and frosty period next Sunday. Thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly but not exclusively in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure sometimes not far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under NW winds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0

The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions tonight with Low pressure trending to come down from the NW in Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times though even here rain and wind occurs at times.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO closes today with next Saturday being a breezy and cold day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over the North Sea. The weather will be generally showery with wintry showers over all high ground with some snowfall over the hills and not just in the North.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021

GEM also introduces colder weather from the weekend. A wet end to the working week under Low pressure is replaced by North or NE winds and wintry showers over the weekend. Then High pressure builds from the SW to show a very ECM'esque 00z run solution with fine and dry weather with night frosts and milder westerly winds filtering across the North later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

The GEM Ensembles though changeable do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found in the South from next weekend on as High pressure is in much closer attendance at times to the SE. Some rain events are shown, chiefly in the North and while winds become strong SW'ly at times it will also become rather mild too later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

NAVGEM today ends it's run with a slack, cyclonic flow next weekend with wintry showers in places before Westerly winds return in the new week to return unsettled and changeable weather to many and temperatures just a little shy of average values.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

ECM's operational tonight is much more progressive in maintaining very changeable conditions as we move into the new week with Low pressure slipping ESE across the North and NE of Britain with rain and wintry showers at times across all areas.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean charts look largely similar to those of this morning indicating the UK could lie in a weak ridge of High pressure with Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores with a West or NW flow of air likely over Britain with some rain at times, most coherent in the North with average temperatures for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream Ensemble group have reduced te amount of elevation in the axis of the flow through week 2 with the flow now shown to hold a position near to the UK meaning low pressure to the NW is allowed to dig further South through the British isles at times with High pressure held further South over Europe or the Atlantic.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary this evening the improvements of this morning have become more muted again tonight as the Atlantic once again is shown to be more than a match for the synoptic setup in a weeks time, pushing the ridge steadily away back South as Low pressure pulls back down over Britain. So after a week to come of more wind and rain it looks as though there will still be some unsettled to be had in Week 2 as well though there may be a shift in emphasis of rain towards Northernmost parts while the South and East eventually see longer drier periods in between the wind and rain.