Good morning. Here is my Sunday review of the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Sunday February 23rd 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.
All models show a mild and broad SW flow across the UK with Low pressure to the NW. A trough lying SW to NE across NW areas is shown to slip SE through today and accelerate away East overnight to leave a Westerly flow briefly tomorrow before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after rain in the NW this morning makes it's way across the UK today and tonight a showery interlude follows tomorrow before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tomorrow night and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures.
GFS then shows a new Low cross into the UK later in the week and take a turn SE across the near Continent next weekend. This ushers in colder weather following a wet end to the working week. Showers will be wintry in the North and East before a ridge moves across from the west or NW damping down any showers and leading to a cold and frosty period next Sunday. Thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure never far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0
The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions today with Low pressure trending to come down from the NW in Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
UKMO closes today with next Saturday being a breezy and cold day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over NW Germany. The weather will be generally showery with wintry showers over all high ground, dying out from the West later.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021
GEM also introduces colder weather from the weekend. A wet end to the working week under Low pressure is replaced by North or NW winds and wintry showers over the weekend. Then further rather cold and unsettled weather with some snow in places occurs to start next week as another Low pressure slides SE across the UK and away to the SE by midweek.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0
The GEM Ensembles though changeable do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found from next weekend on as High pressure is in much closer attendance at times, especially over the South. Some rain events are shown, chiefly in the North and while temperatures shouldn't get too low some frosty nights are likely at times.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
NAVGEM today ends it's run with a slack and unstable North backing West flow next weekend with wintry showers in places before more places become dry by the start of the new week.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0
ECM shows a cold and unsettled weekend with wintry showers especially towards the East and SE before things settle down early next week as a strong ridge builds NE over the South from the Azores with bright sunny days and frosty night. By the end of the run the North has become cloudier and milder under a slowly freshening SW flow.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts do show some support for the operational again this morning, albeit in a more diluted form. In general it points towards a trend for Low pressure to be held well to the NW with a much closer Azores High towards the UK than has been shown for a very long time. The net result would most likely be for any rain to cease across the South with most if not all restricted towards the Northwest. With winds shown to have a maritime influence but much less strong than of late there will likely be a lot of cloud floating about with temperatures returning to close to average values by the middle of next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream Ensemble group still point towards the flow elevating to a more northern latitude across the Atlantic through week 2 supporting the better conditions possible for the UK after this week.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary this morning it still looks strongly likely that there may be something a little more hopeful in the weather once we have got through what will be another unsettled, windy and often wet week to come. Over next weekend we will likely see a transition period involving a spell of colder NW or North winds with some wintry showers as Low pressure slides away SE over Europe. With the Jet Stream buckling strongly North over the Atlantic at that point pressure will rise strongly towards Southern Britain and while the North may see this as a rather transitory pause in the unsettled Atlantic regime Southern areas may hold on to it rather longer giving flood stricken areas much relief with several days if not longer of fine and benign weather with temperatures never desperately low much with an increased risk of night frosts which we haven't seen for so long.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset