Thanks Martin.
In the face of unprecedented wind and rain and an almost total lack of anything wintry (except the usual high altitude), you've stuck to the task of dishing out the bad news and I am not alone in appreciating your output.

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Thanks Neil. I wish I could deliver some better news as it seems that I have used the words rain, showers, gales and floods all too frequently for the last three months. I still hope to soon talk about sun, warmth and dry weather as the seasons slowly change but I wouldn't bet on it for a while yet. Thanks for the support anyway.

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very little in the way of settled weather on the 18z, again unsettled fits it well

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We'll club together and buy you a Thesaurus if these rather depressing words feature heavily in many more of your forecasts, Martin.

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Azores ridge makes a comeback on most of the 00zs. Will it still be there tonight?

 

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^Agree 100% , it certainly has been one of those Winters ,all for the wrong reasons , into the last week and bar any nonsense this will be my first ever D,J,F  without any laying snow in my 48 years .

Here it'll be the least snowy winter ever!

Well, technically joint least snowy winter ever, as I assume there may have been other winters in the past 4.5 billion years in which not one single flake of snow fell.   But none will have been any less snowy than this one!

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Good morning. Here is my Monday review of the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Monday February 24th 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.

All models show a Westerly flow briefly today before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after remaining rain clears it's way across the UK this morning a showery interlude follows before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tonight and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures. A new Low then brings rain and wind back over the UK towards the end of the week with some colder air developing with showers turning wintry over Northern hills towards the weekend.

GFS then shows that thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly in the North with the South staying largely dry close to high pressure to the South. Temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under NW winds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

The GFS Ensembles endorse the operational this morning with a lot of dry and bright weather for Southern areas as High pressure lies to the South and SW. Some rain filters across the North at times from the Atlantic but overall conditions shown are far better than of late.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO closes today with next Sunday being a breezy day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over the North of Scotland and another over Biscay. The weather will be generally unsettled and showery with wintry showers over  high ground. The model has taken a step back by delaying the progression of fine weather early next week following the unsettled weekend.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021

GEM continues to show changeable weather well into next week as further troughs round a High pressure area to the SW with rain at times for many gradually becoming more pronounced to Northern and Western Britain.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

The GEM Ensembles though changeable to begin with do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found in the South from next weekend on as High pressure ridges NE to be positioned over Britain late in the run. Isolated rain events are shown in the North and while winds be much lighter than of late it will also become rather mild in places later but with an increased risk of night frosts.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

NAVGEM today ends it's run with Low pressure well in charge across and around the UK to start next week with further rain at times in a blustery westerly wind and temperatures close to average, at least in the South.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

ECM's operational today has reverted back to a more settled phase of weather next week as High pressure builds strongly from the SW steering rain bearing systems away to the far North and keeping the UK in fine and bright daytime conditions with frosty night probable with light winds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts look largely similar to those of last night indicating the UK could lie in a weak ridge of High pressure with Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores with a West flow of air likely over Britain with some fine weather at times, most coherent in the South with average temperatures for all with any rainfall slowly becoming more confined to the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream Ensemble group continue to promote a lifting of the flow to higher latitudes across the Atlantic as the Azores High becomes more dominant promoting better weather for Southern areas at last while the North too sees less frequent spells of rain. Overall temperatures remain close to average with a flow on this trajectory NE across the Atlantic and the North of the UK in Week 2.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary there still seems strong support for pressure to rise from the west and SW next week. To what extent this occurs is open for debate still as UKMO and NAVGEM for example holds Low pressure over the UK still as late as next Sunday with only marginal improvements suggested at next week from them. ECM and some of the other output shows a much stronger improvement leading to High pressure over the UK later next week with some much welcomed fine and dry conditions for many with some night frosts. I feel there will be plenty more twists and turns as we battle are way through another week of wind and rain at times before perhaps we can look forward to something more akin to early Spring as we move into next week.

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LOL you stalking me

It's been a long time since I can last recall seeing a classic 'warm high/cold high' evolution on a model run (other than CFS of course), where a ridge across the UK/Europe brings a run of warm conditions before being drawn up to Greenland to starting bringing some Arctic cold in our direction.

 

That sort of thing only occurs in GFS FI, so all I'm taking from this is that there's a good signal for high pressure to have much more of a say in things beyond this week, and that the Arctic profile has the potential to be suitable for a high-latitude block to evolve from such a ridge should be we so unlucky/lucky (cross out as desired).

Good thing is, that initial ridge now has support from ECM as well. Less sure about UKMO though...

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06z flattens the ridge so it ends up wetter, but then ridges to greenland for a mid march cold spell

 

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022406/gfsnh-0-384.png?6

A small % would be happy with this

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Hi all,

 

Here's today's video update;

Wettest Winter Since At Least 1766, But Drier Weather Ahead

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Some good news for once with the Azores High seemingly starting to make it's move.

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There is some nice stuff on GFS.

I would hope we can get well into double figures by day and hopefully hold it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

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I concur - the Azores High is only good news in Spring when it can deliver sunshine and warmth.

For the last few days of winter however I will hang on to the frayed remains of the last clutched straw in the forlorn hope the charts promise something to provide some very late interest.

 

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GFS is very dry (IMBY) after this week but UKMO has no sign of the Azores ridge. Flood victims must pray the Azores will rescue us and end the water torture

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022412/UN144-21.GIF?24-17

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Bit like President Viktor Yanukovych did in the Ukraine   Sorry couldn't resist

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Its been a fairly dry week for most with most of the flooding now draining away and many rivers have or/are returning to normal.

Its going to take some significant rainfall to return to the flooding situation we had.

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Dry or not here ,the rivers are still very high and an awful lot of water laying across fields, a decent rainfall and we will be back to square one

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I wouldn't be certain about that. The surface flooding may be easing but groundwater remains very high and additional rain will not soak away very easily yet.

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I think the Azores high might well be short lived , there isnt much in the 30 dayer to suggest a settled period

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Very much a case that the UKMO regularly is following GFS Closely at 00hrs to upto 144hrs, the pattern is not Very Wet, but with West SW winds and also NW or cyclonic variable moderate to fresh winds- at least it does not look Very bad for the UK during next 7 days, but it does look cold and Wintry in the West and also in the North, with wintry weather possible.

The outlook keeps us in West SW to East NE flowing n. Atlantic Flows, and the cold air moves away from the West and SW UK, though the North and nE Parts keep their colder weather safe, the main cold waves move way out to our SW in East mid N Atlantic Sea to SW Europe- gets modified by the time it gets there.

Plumes of milder air always lapping across UK South and SW, from W Mid N Atlantic, as Deep low P. Moves from USA to NW and n Central Atlantic with cold air over NE USA and over SE Canada plus cold High pressure over Greenland- keep the far NW and North Atlantic much colder with West and NW plunges, while West to East to UK pulses of less cold air is pumped in from there SW side!!.

This winter is over but there were lots of floods and Scottlish hills were and have always been the main places this winter for Snow lovers and fans!.

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Well, maybe at t144 to t168 Sundaymand Monday Cold and Wintry Airmass from the N Atlantic could bring some winter frost and snow showers still is in the UKMO and in ECMWF 12z run, it shows (ECMWF) Tuesday mild windy wet Deep Low Track across the UK and then by Wednesday at 240hrs cold Low pressure with Westerly flow strong chill winds heavy rain or showers possible.

T144 and t168 differ on the GFS is it not wanting UKMO and ECMWF cold Returning Polar NW then Westerly, and possible frosty nights as well.

Thursday and Friday look less mild with some hill snow showers rain lower down, as Low pressure heads across and SE exits to France and the Mediterranean, at 96 to 120hrs.

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Could go any way after the 3rd

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