http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-228.png?12

GFS Control is going for 100% unsettled

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-252.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-288.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-324.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-360.png?12

 

 

 

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Rinse and repeat ... has anyone noticed the remarkable similarity in the fax charts for 00 UTC Thu 27 Feb and 12 UTC Sun 2 March? http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

 

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Second ECM op in a row that builds a big sceuro block. Let's hope it is correct so flood hit communities can finally relax

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Don't like the look of this lot at all.

Seems like the end to the wet spell was a bit premature.

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It always seems at arms length though Beast and never seems to get any closer. Low pressures and other disturbances continue to upgrade rainfall amounts in the reliable timeframe.

Story of winter 2013/14 really. 

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The 228 and 252 charts look unsettled and wet, but not so sure it looks too wet for the 288/324/360 timeframes... more chilly and mainly dry apart from areas exposed to the northerly winds.... then again that's too far off to take too seriously.  

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You know the NWP is uninspiring when there's no posts in the MO thread before 7am.

This sadly has happened many times this winter.

The above is my summary of this morning's offerings.

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Hi Neil. I guess no news is better than reading about more bad news.

A quickie glance at the models does seem to show a general agreement by ECM and GFS regarding high pressure close by to the UK by next weekend - but I just know it'll be that mirage effect as it'll all disappear when we get nearer to it, but it'll still be showing up in the distance.

I've noticed our Gibby haven't posted in a while, perhaps this winter has finally broken him. Hope he's okay, though.

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From his website:

"Hi folks. For the time being my Model Analysis Report I compile night and morning will be reduced to just a Summary with immediate effect due to family illness. I will return to my normal report in due course and can only apologize for the reduction in my normal coverage."

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 I wish him and his family all the best and hope things will get back to normal for him sooner rather than later.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022700/gfsnh-0-300.png?0

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Agreement up to the 5th , then where would your money go

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Lol, for the 13th March the operational has uppers of +7c while the control has them at -7c!

I suspect they will be at a boring and useless 0c when the time comes as they have been most of the winter!

Andy

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After the next 7 days are out of the way, March is looking very nice indeed. A chance to properly dry out and repair all the damage to property and infrastructure caused by this historic winter

 

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It's always been 7 days away

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn301.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn304.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3017.gif

Not too sure about all this snow chat, local radio talking about a covering, work colleagues thisk we will wake up to 'whiteness'.............I have said dream on ...........gulp!

 

 

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It has been or is expected to score in USA and Canada more greatly Central and North and NE USA through much of Canada Much persistent VeryCold and Frosty Winter 2013/14, the Great Lakes broke the records since 1996 or was it 1994 or 5 it was mentioned and it may reach 88% Great Lakes Ice Cover around about now. Last Night it was for them -14 deg. C in Hoboken New Jersey and it has now risen to a well below average -7 deg. C, note that SW Central California today have plenty of heavy rain right now- that should bring relief to major record breaking drought there had this last 12 months, which followed another slightly less only bit less in the 12 months before current 12 month period.

Lot of heavy rain on the radar over near NE USA a few hundred miles ENE of SE New York that in open a North Atlantic, and in Gulf of Mexico East and Central parts band of heavy tropical rain today like in San Francisco.

The Great lakes Snowfalls quite abundant due to heat of the Sun over Cold Very Cold Ice and Snow covered Great Lakes.

GFS, UKMO and ECMWF to 120hrs and t144 plus T168 show Lots of UK Low Pressure Via The Major a North Atlantic Convergence to Low Pressure that crops and spreads out East SE and then also from SW to NE in the big picture- Cold Airmasses meeting warm mixing to develop heavy rain and Sleet with Heavy snow for Hills in Scotland (Mountains).

Record to break frozen Great Lakes USA to be first time since 1979.http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/great-lakes-mostly-frozen-nearing-record-coverage-140226.htm 

Huh at 192-216hrs Thursday and Friday next Week after another Wet windy mild then Colder T168! The major GFS vs ECMWF difference 00z runs today are A Ridge of High over UK with Cold persisting and Northflow (ECMWF) vs A Mild Wet West flow very Wet and Mild GFS Thursday Friday - South Dry cloudy wet West and North UK. Which is correct- maybe ECMWF. The GFS wants to take The Jet to our North and NE with mild West and SW flow, vs ECMWF Cold with risk of night frost and North South ridge High Thursday then High East and SE but WSW in West and North by Friday ECMWF...

It's so special- but good there bad here.

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As expected the general "milding out" of the charts continues, with the -5C isotherm now (relatively) a million miles from where it was on the Friday charts 24 hours ago.

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I feel evapourative cooling will pay a part but that is always a tough one to judge with one area getting a nice little dump whilst 5 minutes up the road it is rain or sleet.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Looks like temps wil pick before cooling off again

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17c in some parts at T+240 on the GFS

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.gif

 

Spring can be so fickle.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014022706/run1m2/cfsnh-0-1074.png?06

That's as bad as me posting this

EDIT

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Was a tad on the mild sde for that day also

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We'll believe it when we see it.

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GFS thinks about HP

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022718/gfsnh-0-216.png?18

Then goes back to the unsettled theme

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022718/gfsnh-0-336.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022718/gfsnh-0-384.png?18

 

 

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