Well looks like we've hit 18c in London prob go over 20c somewhere today. It was always likely with this set up not sure why Retron couldn't see it.
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
LOL! Come off it - you got lucky and despite showing next to no methodology you fluked it. Bravo.
To say "it was always likely" is just plain stupid, it was not likely in the slightest and in fact none of the models showed it being this warm! You were just fortunate that the models went the wrong way on it. If you'd actually given reasons why you expected it to be warm (rather than a simplistic extrapolation of 850s) I may have given you more credit, but you didn't.
For those who are interested in why this has happened, it's because the models underestimated the warmth of the lower layers of the atmosphere. When I was having that argument with you the models were showing 850s of 8 or 9, thicknesses lower than they are now and lower dewpoints than we're experiencing. The chart which you based your over-simplistic prediction on was an outlier amongst the ensembles - there was one ECM run which showed the 10C 850 isotherm grazing the UK. All the other models showed 850s remaining lower and, with it, the whole lower level of the atmosphere was forecast to be colder. In the end 850s reached 13C over the SE this morning, which is a remarkably poor performance by the models.
It just goes to show that sometimes you end up with something several degrees warmer than any members of the ensemble suite (across all the models) show, and just a few days out at that. It's irritating to see people like you getting plaudits for what was (at the time) a hopelessly unlikely situation - but there you go.
And yes, those are sour grapes before anyone says it! Enjoy your warmth folks, I'm off to sulk.
PS - don't bother replying vince, I won't be reading it. In fact, I won't even be on here for a few days, I'm that fed up with it.
Edited by user
09 March 2014 15:24:22
|
Reason: Not specified