GFS really wants to send a trough across the UK at some point in the period from day 7 to day 16, but it seems to have half a dozen different ideas as to how that may happen
The model also keeps undercutting the mid-latitude blocking more than we've been seeing from ECM and UKMO, which then encourages some attempts at high-latitide blocking, though they never get going properly on the 12z GFS op run.
It's all a bit confusing to be honest, and I'm hoping to see ECM keeping the trough more to our W/NW again this evening, else I'll have to give up on trying to anticpate the right things in the first half of April 2014
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser