Looks like Gavin Ps forecast for this coming week will be interesting.

Late on the scene this morning after taking a long walk straight after breakfast... glorious sunshine 

Convection is starting to build now though - will the GFS storms verify I wonder? Not even a chance of lightning given by ESTOFEX!

Anyway, yet more interesting output this morning. The trend to place LP more to the SW later in the week as well as for the first half is clear to see.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140517/00/138/h850t850eu.png

GFS still wants to have a little energy escaping NE, but the main trough does now remain to the SW, rather than the whole thing shifting NE. This allows the warm air to remain intact for the majority right on to the weekend, and as pressure rises behind that bit of energy escaping NE, a warm Saturday manifests:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140517/00/192/h850t850eu.png

Beyond this, the HP to the NE takes off like it's been shot up the rear, which gives me cause to disregard the FI evolution for now.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140517/00/ecmt850.144.png

ECM differs to GFS in that it continues to have a stronger ridge over the trough, which then prevents energy from escaping NE, instead confining all of it close to the SW while a strong HP cell evolves to the NE.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140517/00/ecmt850.192.png

That's a very warm weekend being progged there, with some instability early on and later as well, with a more stable period Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The LP to the S tracks NW on Sunday afternoon, followed by a ridge:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140517/00/ecmt850.240.png

That's a very warm setup indeed, and could progress into a 'messy heatwave' in which it is often rather unstable but also quite hot on many occasions.

UKMO has rather a lot of energy escaping NE on day 5 (surprised me a bit actually) but retains enough to the SW to bring that ridge close to the east on day 6, similar to GFS in that regard.

GEM has lately been predicting a stronger Atlantic jet than the other models, with a more notable trough moving pas to the NW and lifting the UK trough out to the NE, a ridge from the Azores following on behind. This idea persists on today's 00z run and actually works out very nicely by day 10... shame it's against the current trends. Still, GEM was right about the trough behaviour this weekend, so who knows?

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY 18TH MAY 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A trough of Low pressure to the West and NW of the UK will pivot East on it's Southern flank to lie North to South close to Western Britain by tomorrow with a new Low forming towards the SW approaches later. Pressure will continue to fall steadily across the British Isles.

GFS The GFS Ensembles show an unsettled week to come with the current very warm conditions tempered by outbreaks of showery rain driven by slack Low pressure areas close to SW Britain through the week. next weekend and week 2 shows a continuation of the showery theme with various areas of quite shallow Low pressure close to the UK continuing to generate showers while the trend towards the end of the run is for pressure to build from the SW and the weather to become drier and more settled.

UKMO UKMO also shows slack and showery Low pressure maintained across the UK through the coming week and into the Bank Holiday weekend. Some heavy showers with thunder look likely and with little wind a lot of rain could fall from slow moving storms at times. After a very warm start temperatures look like slowly returning to average by day though humidity could remain quite high.

GEM The GEM operational shows a good week's worth of shallow Low pressure close to or over the UK with heavy, showery outbreaks of rain at times before a temporary rise in pressure across the North and East promotes a drier phase perhaps over the Bank Holiday weekend.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows n such rise of pressure next weekend and with shallow Low pressure through the coming week too heavy showers are likely for all areas at times and this could be accompanied by longer spells of rain too next weekend, especially in the South where it may feel rather cool by then.

ECM looks broadly similar to last night's offering with Low pressure through this week maintaining very showery conditions, heaviest and most widespread towards the South and west with the very warm weather slowly ebbing away over the next few days. Later in the run as Low pressure moves North cooler Atlantic SW winds look likely to develop through next weekend and Week 2 with some cloud and rain at times with the emphasis for this shifting more towards the North and West with the driest and brightest weather then most likely towards the South and East.

MY THOUGHTS  The very warm conditions still present for some at the beginning of this week will continue to ebb away and by midweek shallow Low pressure zones to the SW of the UK will bring all areas a mix of bright spells and heavy, thundery outbreaks of rain for the remainder of the week and well into the Bank Holiday weekend. The humidity will be high and though days will be cooler night's will continue fairly warm for most. With time the longer term trend remains for most of the output to try and shift the axis of Low pressure further North and East and as a result showery rain will affect more Northern areas while the South and SE may become drier and warmer again through next week although there are some exceptions to this trend which maintain a showery picture under further shallow Low pressure. Any return to the current High pressure early Summer type weather type does look unlikely from the output shown this morning.

Thank You Martin.  Back down to 16/17c towards the end of the month with more precipitation but hoping not too much.....

sunshine and showers with warm nights, good growing weather. just right for may.

just looked at the satellite images and you can see the pivoting trough that martin refers to very clearly.

For a long lasting hot spell you have to head east - still looking hot for Moscow

In fact very impressive 850's - well above average throughout

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Moskau_ens.png

Daytime temps above 25C throughout for a fortnight , quite a few days close to 30C 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Moskau_ens.png

Okay, who was it who hit the models with a sledgehammer?

They're a complete mess tonight, although GFS seems to hold it together reasonably well overall.

The issue seems to be what happens to the jet stream as the warm continental air engages with the cooler Atlantic air; the models are seeing a burst of jet energy going pretty much due north, but whereas before this led to some energy splitting away NE while the rest stayed behind, there's now this drive from most of the models to try and haul everything out to the NE... with ugly results.

After GFS, I looked next at UKMO, and thought 'well that has to be some kind of model error right?'... but then I looked at ECM, and it has turned out to follow a similar theme, taking me completely by surprise.

The biggest issue really is that they're not managing a clean trough clearance from this scenario - instead the remains of the trough drift into Europe and then not only are we left on the cooler side of things, but - of greater concern I think - the door is open for the Atlantic to send in a replacement.

Obviously the wild flailing about of late indicates that we may be far from seeing what the trough will actually get up to, but I must admit I've not enjoyed the runs this weekend at all, and have largely been brushing them aside as a result... we all need a break sometimes though 

That's not a good sign for us - we've been here before - Hot weather well to the east of us spells trouble here.

I don't like the sound of this at all.

Not looking too good by the sounds of things - but we'll have to wait a bit and see.

Obviously the wild flailing about of late indicates that we may be far from seeing what the trough will actually get up to, but I must admit I've not enjoyed the runs this weekend at all, and have largely been brushing them aside as a result... we all need a break sometimes though 

on the bbc week ahead they admitted very low confidence in anything beyond friday so it is wait and see even if you have all the technology available.

Well that would go against what the long range models are showing (re: Gavin's great video yesterday on the June -Aug period) so it may be Moscow can have heat and it doesn't affect us badly. The long range models have above average pressure for June near the UK so very warm at times in June should that come off. Though will be interesting to see if the pattern that has been hinted at a for a while now of a good start to Summer then a washout come August comes off.

Back to MO and some good FI cherry picks this morning if warmth is what you are after -  Gem showing another ridge bulding at the end of the run?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

And GFS FI a very warm outcome:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

As always with FI it's JFF but not looking too bad after this week is out at the moment, though ECM still to finish yet at the time of writing.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY 19TH MAY 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure down to the SW of the UK will spill a warm but slack SE flow across the UK with a trough close to the SW generating some thundery rain at times, this moving slowly NE tonight.

GFS The GFS Ensembles show Low pressure positioned over Southern Britain through the working element of this week. this will generate showers and some longer outbreaks of thundery rain across Southern and western areas in particular but as the week moves on nowhere is immune. as a result of extra cloud cover temperatures will fall somewhat through the week. Through the Bank Holiday weekend Low pressure tries to move away further north and NE with a slow rise of pressure across Britain. However, showers still look likely over the bank Holiday and beyond and it looks like things could warm up again later in Week 2.

UKMO UKMO has slack Low pressure positioned near to Eastern and Northern Britain with pressure gradients slack over the UK. Instability in the atmosphere is likely to be responsible for slow moving and heavy, thundery showers with bright intervals through the Bank Holiday weekend with average temperatures.

GEM The GEM operational shows a showery week to come as shallow Low pressure lies close by. Through the extended weekend showers will become more restricted towards the SE with pressure building towards the NW from the Azores with this rise of pressure extending to all areas next week with sunshine and rather warm conditions probably developing again later next week.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also has low pressure close to the SE of the UK, albeit very slack and ill defined. It's presence though will be sufficient to generate showers over the bank Holiday weekend over England and Wales while Scotland look like falling under a ridge of High pressure with drier and brighter conditions here.

ECM also shows Low pressure lifting away North out of Britain early next week though it may not be in time to prevent a largely showery weekend for many but it by no means shows a washout with plenty of dry and bright weather around between the showers under light cyclonic winds. Later next week with higher pressure moving in from the SW it may well become bright, dry and warmer again briefly especially across England and Wales before more showery low pressure moves down from the NW late next week.

MY THOUGHTS  Low pressure close to Southern Britain over the next 5-7 days look like maintaining the risk of thundery showers and outbreaks of rain at times with temperatures gradually subsiding slowly down though humidity will stay high. There is some support now though for Low pressure to gradually migrate North and East early next week allowing a ridge from the Azores High to re-establish itself towards England and Wales for a short time bringing dry and bright weather back though Atlantic fronts could affect the NW at times extending further South again late next week.

Doesn't sound too bad at all really.

Broadly speaking, the trend is for the trough to gradually lift out NE over the weekend - but in a messy fashion - after which a ridge from the Azores builds NE and becomes a new Scandi High.

GFS takes a while to truly establish this, while ECM is a lot quicker to set things up, though the day 10 chart makes things moce complicated due to sudden amplification upstream - probably overdone at that range as usual, but if it did turn out like that, the trough would be likely to either stall to our NW or drop to our SW, as heights rise to our NE and perhaps E.

GEM could be the most promising... it depends on whether that Azores High has enough drive to head NE from day 10.

The way in which the current trough is modelled to disintigrate into multiple circulations from later on Wednesday looks like something the models will have a headache over, so there's still the risk that we're not seeing the true picture just yet.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Korean June Update + Thunderstorm Risk This Week

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

June's looking quite nice on this latest update I must say. Storm risk this week lookg impressive.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1681.gif

JMA shows high pressure dominating the south in a week for the Bank Holiday.

JMA.

Generally unsettled for the week ahead with changeable conditions reaming into the following week.