Very close to a 9 for UV on the south coast.

http://i.imgur.com/rH4Hafn.png

MACC site.  http://www.copernicus-atmosphere.eu/

GFS 18z more in line with the ECM 12z, though with things shifted a bit more to the east.

It's interesting to think about what's possible when there's a broad mid-Atlantic trough coupled with a strong ridge through the UK that then meets resistance from a trough across Scandinavia... that's a recipe for a lengthy settled and increasingly warm, perhaps even hot spell of weather.

Just where that 'increasingly warm' has to start from will depend on the proximity of the Scandi trough in 8-10 days time.

What's brilliant right now, though, is that the run up to this also sees a similar setup, such that we can potentially go from one 'lengthy settled spell' setup to another while hardly skipping a beat!

Perhaps this is where the term 'prolonged' comes into play 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY JUNE 12TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure is established across Southern England while a trough of Low pressure moves slowly East across Northern areas today and tonight.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today are maintaining a High pressure theme across the British Isles for the next week to 10 days. Things aren't always going to be sunny and hot as the position of High pressure infiltrates cooler uppers across the UK from the North and NE at times with more cloud at times. Many areas will stay dry though through this time. Later indications are shown that some ingress of Atlantic Low pressure could occur late in the period with rain at times and cooler conditions. Also noted this morning is the presence of the first ex tropical storm to move NE off Newfoundland late in the run.

UKMO UKMO ends it's run this morning with a large High pressure just to the West of Ireland with it's influence stretching across the UK with all areas likely to be enjoying settled and dry weather with sunny spells. It will be moderately warm especially in the SW with the coolest conditions likely near North and East coasts with a light onshore wind.

GEM The GEM operational today also shows sustained settled weather over the next 10 days with High pressure never far away from Ireland through the period. This means dry and fine weather with the same distribution of temperatures as UKMO with the SW the warmest and sunniest areas under the light Northerly drift on the Eastern periphery of the High.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is also very similar to it's partner models with High pressure West of Ireland maintaining a strong ridge across the UK with just light Northerly winds with dry weather for all with sunny spells, this along with the highest temperatures likely towards the SW.

ECM The ECM operational today is slightly different by the end of it's run as it pulls High pressure across to the Northern North Sea with a more continental drift developing towards 10 days time. The same weather type would predominate with sunny spells and dry weather for all but Western areas in general could become very warm and sunnier with all areas away from the North Sea coast benefitting from the cutting off of the Northerly drift shown by other output at that time juncture.

MY THOUGHTS  Today's output sees the coming together of all the models in promoting an extended period of dry and settled weather with High pressure close to the UK, just to the West. This positioning remains important as it restricts particularly high temperatures and insteads offers us a period of very comfortably moderately warm weather with broken and sometimes large amounts of cloud floating down in the Northerly drift. As I indicated yesterday the SW looks like seeing the very best of the sunshine and warmth while few areas see any rain at all through the period. Longer term GFS does indicate a breakdown from the Atlantic deep in the period while ECM cuts off the Northerly influence later by wafting High pressure to a position just to the NE of the UK to allow many Western areas to benefit from greater amounts of sunshine and warmth. All in all though leaving aside these small nuances a very pleasant and useable spell of summer weather is likely over the next few weeks for both holidaymakers and those doing things outside alike with little to grumble about overall.