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Stormchaser
11 June 2014 09:40:06

Fine margins next week, with ECM achieving a version of events probably some 2-3*C warmer for central parts simply through having a slightly weaker Euro trough with a little bit less of a pressure gradient across England as a result.


UKMO has the ridge further SE than ECM, GFS or GEM on day 6... tantillising but not one to take much confidence in I'm afraid.


 


Developments in the Arctic prevent the blocking to the NW from developing on the 00z ECM op run, and this is in tune with what we have seen very often over the past few months - low pressure systems keep developing over the Arctic Ocean and drifting into places such as Greenland, eroding any high pressure there.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
picturesareme
11 June 2014 10:37:11

Thank you Martin... Some decent weather until the end of the month is great.... Will it a be a "Flaming June".......

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 



I've always thought the term "Flaming June" was less of a reference to heat and more towards the strength of the sun in June. The sun is after all at it's strongest in June, and many a sun burn are to be had during that flaming month! 😃
ARTzeman
11 June 2014 11:18:56

Thank you Martin... Some decent weather until the end of the month is great.... Will it a be a "Flaming June".......

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I've always thought the term "Flaming June" was less of a reference to heat and more towards the strength of the sun in June. The sun is after all at it's strongest in June, and many a sun burn are to be had during that flaming month! :D

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


 


 


More often used as a curse for downpours  at music festivals....   Glastonbury soon.....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
picturesareme
11 June 2014 11:53:51

Thank you Martin... Some decent weather until the end of the month is great.... Will it a be a "Flaming June".......

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

I've always thought the term "Flaming June" was less of a reference to heat and more towards the strength of the sun in June. The sun is after all at it's strongest in June, and many a sun burn are to be had during that flaming month! :D

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 




More often used as a curse for downpours at music festivals.... Glastonbury soon.....UserPostedImageUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 



Haha I've never thought it of that way 😂
Gusty
11 June 2014 13:22:15


Developments in the Arctic prevent the blocking to the NW from developing on the 00z ECM op run, and this is in tune with what we have seen very often over the past few months - low pressure systems keep developing over the Arctic Ocean and drifting into places such as Greenland, eroding any high pressure there.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Indeed..and as long as this continues so will the predominantly dry warm and settled theme.


The transition this year from winter, through Spring and into Summer has been a steady one for many in the UK. There have been no majorly wild swings in temperatures just a continued gradual improvement all the way. Breakdowns have been temporary in an otherwise generally sunny theme.


Temperatures in the south are creeping into the 70's with remarkable ease..given its still only early June things are shaping up well.


 


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Hungry Tiger
11 June 2014 13:45:55



Developments in the Arctic prevent the blocking to the NW from developing on the 00z ECM op run, and this is in tune with what we have seen very often over the past few months - low pressure systems keep developing over the Arctic Ocean and drifting into places such as Greenland, eroding any high pressure there.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Indeed..and as long as this continues so will the predominantly dry warm and settled theme.


The transition this year from winter, through Spring and into Summer has been a steady one for many in the UK. There have been no majorly wild swings in temperatures just a continued gradual improvement all the way. Breakdowns have been temporary in an otherwise generally sunny theme.


Temperatures in the south are creeping into the 70's with remarkable ease..given its still only early June things are shaping up well.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Rob K
11 June 2014 16:12:04
The only slight fly in the ointment is that Saturday looks like being the worst of the next few days, with a cooler breeze and not much sunshine (and of course this is the day my in-laws are having a party which will ideally be mostly outside.

Still on the plus side it looks like staying largely dry so still a lot better than most recent summers!
(GFS suggests quite a bit of shower activity but Met Office says 10% chance of rain all day...)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
11 June 2014 17:26:52

The only slight fly in the ointment is that Saturday looks like being the worst of the next few days, with a cooler breeze and not much sunshine (and of course this is the day my in-laws are having a party which will ideally be mostly outside. Still on the plus side it looks like staying largely dry so still a lot better than most recent summers! (GFS suggests quite a bit of shower activity but Met Office says 10% chance of rain all day...)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I would have thought any showers modelled by GFS for the weekend will look more extensive than they actually are, although that said there is some instability progged for the end of the working week. I didn't think there was a proper trigger to set anything off though.


Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
Medlock Vale Weather
11 June 2014 18:00:40

The UV index looks unusually high tomorrow. I am down for 7.7 on the scale which for here is quite unusual in the north we usually get no higher than say 6.7, whilst parts of Cornwall are up to 8.2 tomorrow which is classed as "very high". The reason is the lower than normal Ozone column which will filter stronger UV rays than would normally be the case.


 


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Stormchaser
11 June 2014 18:02:27

Well would you look at that - UKMO has held steady and GFS has trended back towards it after that slow westward wobble over the past 24 hours.


GEM is still making more of that trough to the east, but it disagrees with the other modesl from as early as day 4, which is when you would tend to bet on UKMO and GFS over GEM when it comes to modelling things in the relatively tricky regions to our NE and east.


 


A greater amount of amplification seems to be a troublemaker with the upcoming synoptics, so given that ECM often over-amplifies things from around day 4 or 5, it will be quite something if ECM falls right in line with GFS or UKMO this evening... watching it closely over the next hour.


 


 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Rob K
11 June 2014 18:44:08
Looking quite toasty by the second half of next week on GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin P
11 June 2014 19:38:16

This summer has/is certainly getting off to a good start! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
picturesareme
11 June 2014 19:44:13

The UV index looks unusually high tomorrow. I am down for 7.7 on the scale which for here is quite unusual in the north we usually get no higher than say 6.7, whilst parts of Cornwall are up to 8.2 tomorrow which is classed as "veryhigh". The reason is the lower than normal Ozone column which will filter stronger UV rays than would normally be the case.

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 



7.7 is not unusual down here in June and July - though it's quite rare to see even a 7 forecasted by the met.

I think it was something like 8.7-8.8 which was the highest level I have ever seen recorded down here.

Most years we get a couple of days where the UV maxes in the 8 range.

I mainly use this site for UV however there are a couple of others in the area, and I have used them when in doubt to cross reference the readings - especially during times if unusually high spring UV due to low ozone.

http://www.weatheringosport.co.uk/YEAR/History_Vantage_Pro_Plus_1.htm 

As you can see last year peaked around 8.3 in early July.

I just want to add that compared to other developed countries I think the standard of UV forecasting done by the met/bbc is quite poor.
Stormchaser
11 June 2014 19:49:06

ECM has the more substantial development of troughing to our NE then E again 


...but at least it occurs far enough east to have what only looks to be a glancing impact on the UK, as some cooler air crosses the SE, this facing warmer air from the west and likely being steadily mixed out on days 11 and 12 as a result.


 


One thing working on our side is that development of LP systems in regions of marked temperature gradient are often overdone beyond a few days range, so the Scandi trough has a good chance of being weaker than ECM and GEM show, and could even turn out as insubstantial GFS and UKMO have it 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
bledur
11 June 2014 20:21:35

 


well we have had one hell of a wet 6 months so we are due a dry time . be it dry or be it wet the weather always pays it,s debt.


Cool

Medlock Vale Weather
11 June 2014 20:22:18
http://www.weatheringosport.co.uk/YEAR/History_Vantage_Pro_Plus_1.htm  As you can see last year peaked around 8.3 in early July. I just want to add that compared to other developed countries I think the standard of UV forecasting done by the met/bbc is quite poor.


I agree.


I usually use these for gathering a UV forecast in my locale 


http://www.temis.nl/uvradiation/UVindex.html


http://www.temis.nl/uvradiation/nrt/uvindex.php?lon=&lat=


http://www.uvawareness.com/


 


 


 


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Gavin P
11 June 2014 20:41:15

Not sure if this has already been noted, but Unisys have discontinued their old SST anomaly charts - You can check out the statement here;


http://weather.unisys.com/news/?p=362


Talk about the end of an era. These charts have been on the internet as long as I've looking at weather online (2000)



Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2014 21:01:23

Not sure if this has already been noted, but Unisys have discontinued their old SST anomaly charts - You can check out the statement here;
http://weather.unisys.com/news/?p=362 
Talk about the end of an era. These charts have been on the internet as long as I've looking at weather online (2000)
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 



End of an era indeed. Unisys charts actually go back even further. I started looking at weather online in 1995 and the 2 sites that remained pretty much as is since then, with a few colour and URL changes along the way, were the Unisys charts and the 10-day outlooks that are now held at wxmaps.com.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2014 21:03:41

Thank you Martin... Some decent weather until the end of the month is great.... Will it a be a "Flaming June".......

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I've always thought the term "Flaming June" was less of a reference to heat and more towards the strength of the sun in June. The sun is after all at it's strongest in June, and many a sun burn are to be had during that flaming month! :D

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


I always thought "Flaming June" looked as though she'd had a bit too much sun 


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
picturesareme
11 June 2014 22:14:41
http://www.weatheringosport.co.uk/YEAR/History_Vantage_Pro_Plus_1.htm  As you can see last year peaked around 8.3 in early July. I just want to add that compared to other developed countries I think the standard of UV forecasting done by the met/bbc is quite poor.


I agree.
I usually use these for gathering a UV forecast in my locale
http://www.temis.nl/uvradiation/UVindex.html 
http://www.temis.nl/uvradiation/nrt/uvindex.php?lon=&lat= 
http://www.uvawareness.com/ 




That last one has a 8 & 7.9 forecasted for Thursday and Friday - the met has a 6 & 7 lol.

http://www.uvawareness.com/uv-index/uv-index.php?location=Portsmouth%20 
nouska
11 June 2014 22:35:53

Very close to a 9 for UV on the south coast.


http://i.imgur.com/rH4Hafn.png


MACC site.  http://www.copernicus-atmosphere.eu/

picturesareme
11 June 2014 22:45:24

Very close to a 9 for UV on the south coast.
http://i.imgur.com/rH4Hafn.png 
MACC site. http://www.copernicus-atmosphere.eu/ 

Originally Posted by: nouska 



Nice link 🙂 . Check out the far top left corner - that's some high UV for Greenland.
picturesareme
11 June 2014 22:56:20

Thank you Martin... Some decent weather until the end of the month is great.... Will it a be a "Flaming June".......

Originally Posted by: RobN 

I've always thought the term "Flaming June" was less of a reference to heat and more towards the strength of the sun in June. The sun is after all at it's strongest in June, and many a sun burn are to be had during that flaming month! :D

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I always thought"Flaming June"  looked as though she'd had a bit too much sunUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 



😅
Stormchaser
11 June 2014 23:41:01

GFS 18z more in line with the ECM 12z, though with things shifted a bit more to the east.


It's interesting to think about what's possible when there's a broad mid-Atlantic trough coupled with a strong ridge through the UK that then meets resistance from a trough across Scandinavia... that's a recipe for a lengthy settled and increasingly warm, perhaps even hot spell of weather.


 


Just where that 'increasingly warm' has to start from will depend on the proximity of the Scandi trough in 8-10 days time.


 


What's brilliant right now, though, is that the run up to this also sees a similar setup, such that we can potentially go from one 'lengthy settled spell' setup to another while hardly skipping a beat!


 


Perhaps this is where the term 'prolonged' comes into play 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
GIBBY
12 June 2014 07:23:42

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY JUNE 12TH 2014.


THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure is established across Southern England while a trough of Low pressure moves slowly East across Northern areas today and tonight.


GFS The GFS Ensembles today are maintaining a High pressure theme across the British Isles for the next week to 10 days. Things aren't always going to be sunny and hot as the position of High pressure infiltrates cooler uppers across the UK from the North and NE at times with more cloud at times. Many areas will stay dry though through this time. Later indications are shown that some ingress of Atlantic Low pressure could occur late in the period with rain at times and cooler conditions. Also noted this morning is the presence of the first ex tropical storm to move NE off Newfoundland late in the run.


UKMO UKMO ends it's run this morning with a large High pressure just to the West of Ireland with it's influence stretching across the UK with all areas likely to be enjoying settled and dry weather with sunny spells. It will be moderately warm especially in the SW with the coolest conditions likely near North and East coasts with a light onshore wind.


GEM The GEM operational today also shows sustained settled weather over the next 10 days with High pressure never far away from Ireland through the period. This means dry and fine weather with the same distribution of temperatures as UKMO with the SW the warmest and sunniest areas under the light Northerly drift on the Eastern periphery of the High.


NAVGEM NAVGEM is also very similar to it's partner models with High pressure West of Ireland maintaining a strong ridge across the UK with just light Northerly winds with dry weather for all with sunny spells, this along with the highest temperatures likely towards the SW.


ECM The ECM operational today is slightly different by the end of it's run as it pulls High pressure across to the Northern North Sea with a more continental drift developing towards 10 days time. The same weather type would predominate with sunny spells and dry weather for all but Western areas in general could become very warm and sunnier with all areas away from the North Sea coast benefitting from the cutting off of the Northerly drift shown by other output at that time juncture.


MY THOUGHTS  Today's output sees the coming together of all the models in promoting an extended period of dry and settled weather with High pressure close to the UK, just to the West. This positioning remains important as it restricts particularly high temperatures and insteads offers us a period of very comfortably moderately warm weather with broken and sometimes large amounts of cloud floating down in the Northerly drift. As I indicated yesterday the SW looks like seeing the very best of the sunshine and warmth while few areas see any rain at all through the period. Longer term GFS does indicate a breakdown from the Atlantic deep in the period while ECM cuts off the Northerly influence later by wafting High pressure to a position just to the NE of the UK to allow many Western areas to benefit from greater amounts of sunshine and warmth. All in all though leaving aside these small nuances a very pleasant and useable spell of summer weather is likely over the next few weeks for both holidaymakers and those doing things outside alike with little to grumble about overall.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



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